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111.
The effect of repeat testing in maternal serum multiple marker screening for Down's syndrome was estimated using samples stored in an antenatal serum bank. Human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) and unconjugated oestriol (uE3) levels were determined in 142 pairs of routinely collected samples which had already been tested for alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). For each marker, about two-thirds of the pairs of values were within 20 per cent of each other and most were within 40 per cent. A multivariate Gaussian model was used to estimate the detection and false-positive rates for different repeat testing policies. A policy of repeat testing those with a high risk of a Down's syndrome term pregnancy given age and marker levels would reduce the false-positive rate but there would also be a reduction in the detection rate. For example, using all three markers and a 1 in 250 cut-off risk, the estimated false-positive rate would fall from 5·3 to 3·8 per cent but the detection rate would decrease from 58 to 55 per cent. A policy of repeating those with either high or borderline risks would produce a modest improvement in screening efficiency. Repeating the 11 per cent with a risk exceeding 1 in 500 yields an estimated false-positive rate of 5·0 per cent and a detection rate of 60 per cent. A policy of selective repeat testing is not recommended as it would not substantially improve screening efficiency. Nonetheless, if a repeat test has been performed, the parameters given in this paper will enable an unbiased estimate of the Down's syndrome risk to be calculated for individual women. 相似文献
112.
Judith Bell Jørgen Hilden Francis Bowling John Pearn Arthur Brownlea Nicole Martina 《黑龙江环境通报》1986,6(1):1-11
From the public health point of view, several formal attempts have been made to measure the impact of prenatal diagnosis (PND) on the incidence of Down's Syndrome (DS), but the results have varied widely. The impact of PND (reduction in the birth rate of chromosomally abnormal neonates) is related to utilization rates but quantitative estimates of this have not been established. In a three-year (1981–1983) total population study from Queensland, Australia, we present results to measure the impact of a voluntary PND programme on the birth incidence of DS, and also other chromosomally abnormal births. Utilization rates for the PND service were 15·5 per cent in that population of mothers 35 years and over. Numbers and rates of all cases of chromosomal abnormalities are presented, subclassified by type of diagnosis–-either by PND or by clinical diagnosis after birth. For the total population, 7·3 per cent of cases of DS were detected prenatally, and 15·4 per cent of all chromosome abnormalities. (A method for measuring the impact of PND is described.) Using this in conjunction with our demographic data, we estimate that with a 15 per cent utilization rate of PND by older mothers, 14 per cent of DS births can be prevented in this age group, or a 5 per cent overall reduction can be achieved if mothers of all ages are considered. One index–-the ratio of the percentage of DS births which are preventable compared with the population utilization rates of PND–-has potential for widespread use. Queensland data for this ratio is 0·34, a figure consistent with that from other studies. Thus a 3·5 per cent drop in the overall DS birth rate may be expected for each 10 per cent increase in the utilization rates of PND for mothers of 35 years and over. A diagram is presented which may serve as a model for improved data collection and better impact estimates in the future. 相似文献
113.
114.
S. F. Goodburn J. R. W. Yates P. R. Raggatt C. Carr M. E. Ferguson-Smith A. J. Kershaw P. J. D. Milton Professor M. A. Ferguson-Smith 《黑龙江环境通报》1994,14(5):391-402
Over a 2-year period from January 1991 to December 1992, second-trimester maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome using alpha-fetoprotein (aFP), human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), and unconjugated oestriol (uE3) was made available to five health districts in East Anglia, with a total population of 1·2 million. Amniocentesis was offered when the risk of Down's syndrome at term was 1:200 or greater. 25359 singleton pregnancies were screened, representing an uptake of 77 per cent. The recall rate for the 24 per cent of women who had not had a dating scan prior to the test was 9·4 per cent compared with 3·9 per cent for those who had been scanned (P<0·0005). Seventy-five per cent (36/48) of Down's syndrome pregnancies were detected for a false-positive rate of 4·0 per cent. Twenty-five out of 36 of detected Down's syndrome pregnancies were dated by scan prior to sampling, and in the 11 remaining cases, the dates were confirmed by scan after a high-risk result was obtained. The exclusion of uE3 from the screening protocol would have reduced the detection rate to 52 per cent (25/48) for the same false-positive rate. Eighty-five per cent of women identified at high risk accepted the offer of an amniocentesis. Other fetal abnormalities detected were trisomy 18 (3), trisomy 13 (2), 45,X (6), 69,XXX (5), other chromosome abnormalities (9), open neural tube defects (26), hydrocephalus (7), abdominal wall defects (4), and steroid sulphatase deficiency (6). 相似文献
115.
116.
117.
J. M. M. van Lith 《黑龙江环境通报》1991,11(8):621-624
We have started a multicentre trial to study the possibilities of first-trimester maternal serum screening for fetal chromosomal abnormalities. Maternal blood samples were obtained before 13 weeks of gestation. We present the preliminary results of the first 950 patients on alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). Results on cancer antigen 125 (CA 125) in Down's syndrome and normal pregnancies are also presented. We conclude that the results on AFP are promising and that CA 125 might be predictive for fetal Down's syndrome. 相似文献
118.
Maternal serum free α-human chorionic gonadotrophin (free α-hCG) levels were determined in twin and singleton pregnancies at 15–22 weeks of gestation using a set of stored serum samples relating to 200 twin pregnancies and 600 singleton control pregnancies matched for gestational age and duration of storage. Free α-hCG values are, on average, 1·66 times greater in twin pregnancies than in singleton pregnancies (95 per cent confidence interval 1·56–1·76). If maternal serum free α-hCG is used in screening for Down's syndrome, values in twin pregnancies can be adjusted using this result so that screening can be performed in twin pregnancies as well as in singleton pregnancies. 相似文献
119.
To determine the effect of routine repeat testing in serum screening for Down's syndrome, we compared estimates of the detection and false-positive rates. Five serum markers were measured-alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE3), human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), and its two subunits, free α and free β-hCG. First and repeat test marker levels were available from 142 women whose samples had been routinely collected and stored in an antenatal serum bank. Different repeat testing policies were compared for various combinations of the markers. If all women had repeat tests using the four markers AFP, uE3, and free α and free β-hCG, the detection rate for a 5 per cent false-positive rate was 69 per cent compared with 65 per cent if no women were repeated. Policies of repeating selected women gave similar results. The small gain in screening performance with repeat testing performed routinely is not worthwhile. If a woman does happen to have a repeat test, her risk estimate should, however, be based on both results, not just the second. 相似文献
120.
本文通过多次现场调查与室内实验的数据分析,对流入太湖污水中三态氮水质模型的建立进行了初步探讨。研究表明,模型的计算数值与现场实测数值基本一致。 相似文献