EVALUATION OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING STREAM WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS IN A TRANSIENT MODEL FROM STOCHASTIC DATA1

ABSTRACT: In this study the estimation of parameters in water quality models represented by linear first order partial differential equations is investigated. Two sets of simulated input-output data, one with input noise and the other with output measurement error, were used. The parameters were estimated by a gradient technique (Bard's method) and a pattern search technique. The results indicate that the output measurement error significantly affects the values of parameter estimates as compared to the noise added to the input. Bard's method consistently gave results with a smaller sum of square value.     

EFFECT OF WOODY DEBRIS ENTRAPMENT ON FLOW RESISTANCE1

ABSTRACT: Recent environmental concerns in floodplain management have stimulated research of the effect vegetation and debris have on flow conveyance, and their function in a productive riparian ecosystem. Although the effect of stable, in-channel woody debris formations on flow resistance has been noted by several authors, studies concerning entrapment of detrital debris in vegetation are lacking. Logs, limbs, branches, leaves and other debris transported during flooding often become lodged against bridges, hydraulic structures, trees and vegetation, and other obstacles, particularly in and near the overbank areas. Hydraulic measurements obtained in a channel prior to and following the removal of woody debris indicated that the average Manning's n value was 39 percent greater when woody debris was present. An examination of the drag-velocity relation for vegetation indicated that an increase in the frontal area of debris and/or vegetation results in a nearly proportional increase in Manning's n. The influence of debris on flow resistance decreased as flow depth increased.     

Second-trimester maternal serum immunoreactive inhibin as a marker for fetal Down's syndrome

We measured immunoreactive inhibin in the maternal serum of 80 pregnancies with a chromosomally normal fetus and ten Down's syndrome pregnancies in the second trimester. The inhibin level in all Down's syndrome pregnancies was above the normal median; the multiple of the normal median (MoM) was 1.9. We found a statistically significant difference between the levels of inhibin in unaffected and affected pregnancies (Kolmogorov–Smirnov test: p <0.002). Using an arbitrarily chosen cut-off of 2.4 MoM, 40 per cent of Down's syndrome and 5 per cent of the normal pregnancies were found. We conclude that immunoreactive inhibin may be useful as a marker for fetal Down's syndrome.     

Down's syndrome screening in multiple pregnancies using alpha-fetoprotein and free beta hCG

Second-trimester distributions of the free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels in 420 twin and 19 triplet pregnancies were measured and compared with the distributions in 6661 singleton pregnancies. On average, the levels of both analytes were twice as high in twins and over three times as high in triplets. Eight sets of twins discordant for Down's syndrome showed elevated levels of free beta hCG and reduced levels of AFP after correction of the multiple of the median for the presence of a twin pregnancy. Screening for Down's syndrome using the twin correction of the multiple of the median is expected to achieve a 51 per cent detection rate at a 5 per cent false-positive rate using these two markers.     

The prenatal diagnosis of joubert's syndrome of familial agenesis of the cerebellar vermis

The prenatal diagnosis by ultrasound examination of Joubert's syndrome of familial agenesis of the cerebellar vermis is described allowing termination of pregnancy ai 26 weeks gestation. The diagnosis was made by a comparison of the prenatal ultrasound examination with computerized axial tomography obtained from the siblings with the same condition.     

First-trimester maternal serum human chorionic gonadotrophin as a marker for fetal chromosomal disorders

The Dutch Working Party on Prenatal Diagnosis has initiated a study on the possibilities of first-trimester screening for fetal chromosomal disorders. We report on maternal serum human chorionic gonadotrophin (MS-hCG) measurements in 1348 pregnancies with a chromosomally normal fetus and 53 pregnancies with a chromosomally abnormal fetus. The median MS-hCG concentration in 24 pregnancies with Down's syndrome was 1.19 multiples of the normal median (MoM). The MS-hCG distributions in normal and Down's syndrome pregnancies did not differ significantly (t-test: t = 1.945, p >0.05). We also found no difference between normal pregnancies and pregnancies with other chromosomal disorders (six cases of trisomy 18, MoM = 0.80; four cases of sex chromosome abnormality, MoM = 1.01; 17 cases of chromosomal mosaicism in chorionic villi, MoM = 1.11). Selecting an upper limit at the 90th centile could detect 25 per cent of pregnancies with Down's syndrome. We conclude that, in the first trimester, MS-hCG as a screening factor for Down's syndrome is of minor value. However, MS-hCG could be a useful factor in a first-trimester screening programme based on a combination of markers.     

Birth prevalence of down's syndrome in England and Wales

The natural birth prevalence of Down's syndrome for England and Wales in 1974–1987 (i.e., the birth prevalence in the absence of prenatal diagnosis and the induced abortion of affected pregnancies) was estimated by applying the maternal age-specific birth prevalence derived from epidemiological studies to the number of births in single-year age groups tabulated by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (OPCS). On average, the natural birth prevalence was 12.6 per 10 000 births and increased slightly from 12.2 to 13.2 per 10 000 births over the 14-year period. Using data on induced abortions carried out on account of Down's syndrome reported to OPCS under the statutory abortion notification scheme, 14 per cent of affected births were avoided by the induced abortion of affected pregnancies, so that the actual birth prevalence of Down's syndrome was estimated at 10.8 per 10000 births. Using data on Down's syndrome births reported to OPCS under the voluntary congenital malformation notification scheme, the prevalence was 7.2 per 10000 births, so only 67 per cent of the estimated number of affected births were, in fact, notified to the scheme.     

Prenatal screening for chromosome abnormalities using maternal serum chorionic gonadotrophin,alpha-fetoprotein,and age

Human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels were assayed retrospectively in stored maternal serum samples from 78 chromosomally abnormal pregnancies and 410 controls matched for gestation and maternal age. The median serum hCG concentration in 49 pregnancies with Down's syndrome was significantly elevated, at 2.18 multiples of the normal median. Significantly reduced hCG concentrations were found in a group of four trisomy 18 pregnancies (all less than 0.4 multiples of the median). Eight cases of unbalanced chromosome rearrangements appeared to show some lowering of hCG levels, while there was no significant difference in the levels in the cases of trisomy 13, balanced translocations, and sex chromosome abnormalities. Maternal serum hCG alone is a better indicator of Down's syndrome pregnancies than maternal age or maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), either individually or in combination, and provides a further virtually independent measure of risk. On the basis of our findings, screening for Down's syndrome using hCG and AFP results combined with maternal age risks is predicted to result in a higher detection rate (57 per cent) for a lower false-positive rate (5.0 per cent) than would be attainable by combined AFP and age screening (37 per cent detection at a 6.6 per cent false-positive rate).     

Amniotic fluid pregnancy-specific β1-glycoprotein (SP1) in fetal developmental disorders

Concentration of pregnancy-specific β1-glycoprotein (SP1) was studied in second and third trimester amniotic fluid from pregnancies with various fetal developmental disorders. The material consisted of 26 cases with chromosomal disorders and 19 cases with nonchromosomal fetal malformations. The SP1 concentration was elevated in two cases of Meckel's syndrome (mean + 2.7–4.0 S.D.) as well as in one case of fetal triploidy (mean + 22 S.D.), while it was normal in all other 14 different fetal disorders.     

Value of maternal serum unconjugated oestriol measurement in prenatal screening for Down's syndrome

We compared the medical and financial cost-effectiveness of prenatal serum screening for Down's syndrome using maternal age, serum alpha-fetoprotein and human chorionic gonadotrophin with and without the use of unconjugated oestriol. The use of unconjugated oestriol is medically more cost-effective than screening without it at all levels of detection. The actual performance depends on whether gestational age is estimated using ‘dates’ or an ultrasound scan. At a detection rate of 60 per cent, the proportion of unaffected fetal losses per case diagnosed at amniocentesis is about 22 per cent less if gestational age is estimated using dates (time since the first day of the last menstrual period) and about 47 per cent less if it is based on an ultrasound scan examination. At this detection rate, the inclusion of unconjugated oestriol increases costs by about £2k per case diagnosed (£36k instead of £34k) if gestational age is estimated using dates, but it is no more expensive if gestational age is measured from an ultrasound scan examination (indeed, it is more cost-effective at detection rates above 60 per cent). Since there is little change in the financial cost with the inclusion of unconjugated oestriol, for the improved medical performance of screening, it is worthwhile including it in the screening test.