Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

Abstract:  We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case–control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species ( n = 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p = 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.     

浮选剂黄药对蛙类胚胎的致畸毒性

报道了黑斑蛙(Rana nigromaculata)受精卵短期暴露于黄药溶液后对胚胎发育所引起的影响.浓度高于0.1ppm的黄药溶液能显著引起蛙胚的畸形发育,使孵出的蝌蚪呈现单一的畸形症状——脊索蜿蜒弯曲,为黄药污染的水体之水质监测提供了一个生物学指标.     

灰色局势决策模型在生态环境综合整治方案优化中的应用

应用灰色系统理论，将安徽省环境问题归纳为１０类事件，针对这些事件提出 对策，建立灰色局势决策模型，得到了符合安徽省社会、经济、技术及环境条件的优化决策方案。研究表明，灰色局势决策模型原理简单，计算简便，结果可靠，是玫中很实用价值的多方案优化模型。     

基于灰色预测模型的合肥市城市生活垃圾产量预测

随着合肥市经济的快速发展和人民生活水平的普遍提高,生活和生产过程中产生的日益增多的城市生活垃圾,已成为困扰城市发展、污染市容环境、影响市民生活的社会问题.通过对合肥市城市生活垃圾现状的分析,得出合肥市城市垃圾产生量是逐年增长的,每年3月、5月和8月为垃圾高产期,2月和4月为相对较少月份.在现状分析基础上建立灰色预测模型并用其对未来城市生活垃圾产量进行预测,结果表明合肥市到2030年城市垃圾产量将达到222.47万吨.     

中国南方主要防火树种的防火特性及开发利用研究

本文采用多目标决策法对我国南方的主要防火树种进行初步筛选。在此基础上,以易燃的杉木（Ｃｕｎｎｉｎｇｈａｍｉａｌａｎｃｅｏｌａｔａ）、马尾松（Ｐｉｎｕｓｍａｓｓｏｎｉａｎａ）为对照,对其代表性树种---木荷（Ｓｃｈｉｍａｓｕｐｅｒｂａ）、火力楠（Ｍｉｃｈｅｌｉａｍａｃｃｌｕｒｅｉ）、细柄阿丁枫（Ａｌｔｉｎｇｉａｇｒａｃｉｌｉｐｅｓ）等的防火特性进行比较研究。结果表明,防火树种具有着火温度高、水分含量高,且析出速率快、活化能高、挥发分发热量低等特点。主成分分析表明,树叶的着火温度、含水率、水分析出速率、活化能及挥发分发热量等可作为判断树种防火性能优劣的主要指标,而苯-乙醇抽取物和粗灰分含量等可作为辅助性判断指标。文章最后提出了主要防火树种的开发利用途径和对策。     

灰色理论模型预测城市垃圾量

利用灰色理论模型 ,采用非线性微分方程拟合 ,可较好地预测城市垃圾的产生量。运用最小二乘法 ,通过MATALAB程序求出了模型中的参数 ,假设检验结果表明 ,该模型有较高的预测精度。根据上述模型 ,预测娄底市未来30a的总垃圾预测量为 80 4 90万t     

多目标灰色关联度决策模型分析

本文针对多目标决策的复杂性,运用灰色系统分析方法和物元分析理论,建立了决策方案的评价体系并对评价指标进行规范化处理。以决策方案的灰色关联度作为评判准则,建立了一种目标灰色关联度决策模型。     

交通安全对策的关联树法分析

分析了交通安全的影响因素,结合系统工程理论,建立了道路交通安全对策关联树,并计算了指标的重要度,为提出合理的交通安全对策提供了理论依据.     

矿井提升机盘闸制动系统工作状态监控与安全

运用故障树分析(FTA)方法分析矿井提升机盘式制动系统故障原因,包括机械故障、摩擦系数故障、液压故障等,提出矿井提升机盘闸制动系统的故障树,并给出了系统状态计算机测控系统方案。采用现代检测与计算机技术,对盘闸制动系统的主要故障进行综合检测;对摩擦系数进行间接检测;研究成果,为故障报警与控制提供了保障,报警与控制结合,提高了提升机盘闸制动系统的安全性。     

生态示范区可持续发展灰色评估系统设计应用

介绍了如何在国家级生态示范区的可持续发展评估中运用灰色系统理论构建定量评估系统模型,并给出了关系型指标表、量纲模型、多元灰色预测模型和发展系数模型以及应用实例.根据该评估系统模型所开发的灰色评估系统由数学模型、计算机软件和硬件组成,可自动完成量纲统一、指标预测、相关分析、综合评估和趋势图表的运算和输出.