Motorcycle crashes potentially preventable by three crash avoidance technologies on passenger vehicles

Objective: The objective of this study was to identify and quantify the motorcycle crash population that would be potential beneficiaries of 3 crash avoidance technologies recently available on passenger vehicles.

Methods: Two-vehicle crashes between a motorcycle and a passenger vehicle that occurred in the United States during 2011–2015 were classified by type, with consideration of the functionality of 3 classes of passenger vehicle crash avoidance technologies: frontal crash prevention, lane maintenance, and blind spot detection. Results were expressed as the percentage of crashes potentially preventable by each type of technology, based on all known types of 2-vehicle crashes and based on all crashes involving motorcycles.

Results: Frontal crash prevention had the largest potential to prevent 2-vehicle motorcycle crashes with passenger vehicles. The 3 technologies in sum had the potential to prevent 10% of fatal 2-vehicle crashes and 23% of police-reported crashes. However, because 2-vehicle crashes with a passenger vehicle represent fewer than half of all motorcycle crashes, these technologies represent a potential to avoid 4% of all fatal motorcycle crashes and 10% of all police-reported motorcycle crashes.

Discussion: Refining the ability of passenger vehicle crash avoidance systems to detect motorcycles represents an opportunity to improve motorcycle safety. Expanding the capabilities of these technologies represents an even greater opportunity. However, even fully realizing these opportunities can affect only a minority of motorcycle crashes and does not change the need for other motorcycle safety countermeasures such as helmets, universal helmet laws, and antilock braking systems.     

The role of daytime cues in the development of magnetic orientation in a night-migrating bird

To assess the role of celestial rotation during daytime in the development of the magnetic compass course, pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca Pallas, Muscicapidae) were handraised in Latvia under various celestial and magnetic conditions. Tests were performed during autumn migration in the local geomagnetic field (50 000 nT, 73° inclination) in the absence of celestial cues. A group of birds that had never seen the sky showed a bimodal preference for the migratory southwest-northeast axis, whereas a second group that had been exposed to the natural sky from sunrise to sunset in the local geomagnetic field showed a unimodal preference for the seasonally appropriate southwesterly direction. A third group that had also been exposed to the daytime sky, but in the absence of magnetic compass information, also oriented bimodally along a southwest-northeast axis. These findings demonstrate that observing celestial rotation during daytime enables birds to choose the right end of the migratory axis for autumn migration at the Latvian test location. This transformation of axial behavior into appropriate migratory orientation, however, requires the birds to have simultaneous access to information on both celestial rotation and the geomagnetic field. Received: 19 September 1997 / Accepted after revision: 22 November 1997     

An elegant application of appropriate technology: the Sheep Creek Hatchery

Alaska's program for rebuilding salmon stock is calledfishery enhancement. Hatchery technology can produce dramatic increases in numbers of fish homing to selected streams. The Sheep Creek Hatchery is unusually efficient— it increases a fish run by a factor of 3000 and produces salmon at 9–11c/kg by minimizing mechanical energy inputs and human labor. The design harnesses the force of gravity and capitalizes on instinctual behavior of the fish. Since migratory fish collect protein from ocean pasturage, the technology increases the share of this resource collected and concentrated for harvest in a specific country or region. While small seaside hatcheries can solve biological problems of depleted fish stocks, economic and political considerations may preclude efficient utilization of the protein produced. Further, the potential for one state or country to concentrate fish near its shores poses new dilemmas for international regulation of harvests.     

Investigation of injury severities in single-vehicle crashes in North Carolina using mixed logit models

IntroductionRoadway departure (RwD) crashes, comprising run-off-road (ROR) and cross-median/centerline head-on collisions, are one of the most lethal crash types. According to the FHWA, between 2015 and 2017, an average of 52 percent of motor vehicle traffic fatalities occurred each year due to roadway departure crashes. An avoidance maneuver, inattention or fatigue, or traveling too fast with respect to weather or geometric road conditions are among the most common reasons a driver leaves the travel lane. Roadway and roadside geometric design features such as clear zones play a significant role in whether human error results in a crash. Method: In this paper, we used mixed-logit models to investigate the contributing factors on injury severity of single-vehicle ROR crashes. To that end, we obtained five years' (2010–2014) of crash data related to roadway departures (i.e., overturn and fixed-object crashes) from the Federal Highway Administration's Highway Safety Information System Database. Results: The results indicate that factors such as driver conditions (e.g., age), environmental conditions (e.g., weather conditions), roadway geometric design features (e.g., shoulder width), and vehicle conditions significantly contributed to the severity of ROR crashes. Conclusions: Our results provide valuable information for traffic design and management agencies to improve roadside design policies and implementing appropriately forgiving roadsides for errant vehicles. Practical applications: Our results show that increasing shoulder width and keeping fences at the road can reduce ROR crash severity significantly. Also, increasing road friction by innovative materials and raising awareness campaigns for careful driving at daylight can decrease the ROR crash severity.     

Design and cognitive evaluation of 6 dynamic lane departure warning symbols

Objective: Lane departure, caused by inattention, distraction, drowsiness, or any unusual driver behavior, is a typical risk threatening the driver as well as other road users. Accurate perception of such situations through effective warnings would help drivers to avoid serious consequences. With regard to critical functions of warning symbols for risk communication, the present study focused on providing effective and easily perceivable symbols, compatible with human cognitive capabilities. Thus, the main purpose of the present study was to design and cognitively appraise 6 newly designed dynamic symbols, candidates for a new type of lane departure warning system.

Methods: Simplicity, familiarity, concreteness, meaningfulness, and semantic closeness were the major assessment criteria, defining cognitive features by the earlier researchers in the field. A total number of 187 driving license applicants, with a mean age of 20.58 years (SD = 3.20), participated in the present survey. The participants rated cognitive features of the 6 dynamic symbols along a 0–100 scale.

Results: Significant main effect of the element factor type of the designed symbols on rating cognitive features revealed that the existence of car element was the best predictor for illustrating lane departure. The interaction of both element factor and location of element factor significantly affected the ratings. However, the location of element factor did not solely have any strong effect on the ratings. The results also demonstrated that semantic closeness received the highest overall mean score across symbols (M = 61.80), especially within the symbols that include the car element (M = 75.67). Moreover, a significant difference was observed between the average ratings of the cognitive features, despite the fact that a significant correlation was found between cognitive features.

Conclusion: The most considerable result of the current study was the match between the symbol with the highest ratings and the International Organization for Standardization (ISO)-related icon in appearance. Because previous studies demonstrated a strong correlation between comprehension scores of the symbol and both semantic closeness and meaningfulness, high-level comprehensibility of the best ranked symbol is expected.     

1978年长江中下游地区夏季大旱及其影响

本文利用相对距平和Z—指数为指标分析了1978年长江中下游地区的夏季大旱,并着重研究了干旱对该地区水资源和农业生产的影响。     

崇明东滩候鸟自然保护区的动态变化

在８０年代末期的鸟类及其生境调查研究基础上，正式提出拟建的上海市崇明东滩候鸟自然保护区，５年来随着滩涂的游涨及９０年代初期人工围垦的影响，滩涂自然植被和鸟类的种类，数量，分布也随之有了相应的相应的动态变化。该文在新的调查资料基础上，对崇明东滩鸟类赖以生存地自然植被恢复，候鸟食料的容量分析等作了研究；同时，还论述了崇明候鸟自然保护区的界线范围及其动态变化，以及保护区内部３个功能小区的动态等。     

Clock-shift experiments with Savannah sparrows, Passerculus sandwichensis, at high northern latitudes

Orientation can be difficult for nocturnal bird migrants at high northern latitudes because of the large changes of magnetic declinations, rapid longitudinal time-shifts experienced during a long-distance flight and the invisibility of stars during the polar summer. Both sunset cues as well as geomagnetic cues have been shown to be of great importance in the orientation system of Savannah sparrows, Passerculus sandwichensis. We used clock-shift experiments to investigate whether geomagnetic and sunset cues were used for migratory orientation by wild-caught young Savannah sparrows at high geomagnetic latitudes in Northern Canada. We exposed birds to a 4-h slow clock-shift, expecting a 60° clock-wise shift in orientation after the treatment. Under natural clear skies in the local geomagnetic field, the birds responded by showing a significant axial mean orientation directed towards the position of the setting sun in the NW and towards their preferred migratory direction in the SE. After exposure to the clock-shift for 6 days and nights the birds showed a clear response to the treatment and shifted significantly towards NNE. Birds that first oriented towards NW in the experiments before clock-shift tended to shift clock-wise, thus reacted to the clock-shift in the expected way. The reaction of the individual birds that originally oriented towards SE seems to vary. In summary, our birds did not select a constant angle (menotaxis) in relation to the sun's position during the experiments, but presumably were affected by the sun showing phototaxis or followed their magnetic compass. Possible explanations of the unexpected experimental results are discussed. Electronic Publication     

基于博弈论与可拓学的非正常接发列车人因风险评价

为更加准确且全面地对非正常条件下接发列车作业人因风险进行评价,提出基于博弈论与可拓学的人因风险评价模型。在工作人员认知机理的基础上,构建认知行为模型,考虑到人因风险指标数据的特性,利用博弈论的思想将由AHP法得出的主观权重与由熵值法得到的客观权重进行最优组合,克服了单一赋权法的不足;引用可拓学原理,建立多级可拓评价模型,修正了风险评价的偏差,使人因风险评价更加准确。实例计算表明:此方法运用到铁路非正常条件下接发列车作业人因风险评价是有效的,且可为科学制订风险控制措施提供依据。     

辽宁省近50年降水量的突变特征及变化趋势分析

首先采用Pettitt方法对辽宁省21个气象站1958年一2008年51年的降水量序列进行突变分析,结果显示54476和54486两测站的年降水量序列分别在1996年和1998年存在显著的突变且通过了显著性水平检验,其它测站的降水量序列均未检测出显著的突变年份。根据累积距平曲线分析辽宁省51年的年均降水量在时间尺度上大致分为三个阶段：1958年一1975年为降水量增加阶段,1975年一1996年为降水量稳定阶段,1996年一2008为降水量减少阶段。最后应用Morlet小波分析对辽宁省年均降水量进行周期分析,结果表明降水在大尺度时间上存在约24年的周期震荡,在小尺度时间上存在约9年的周期震荡。