A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

β修正罗丹明B光度法测定工业废水中银

对β修正光度法测定废水中痕量银进行了研究，该方法能消除反应液中过量显色剂干扰，提高分析灵敏度和准确度。测定结果表明，银加标回收率９３．０－１０６．０％，精密度ＲＳＤ２．３％，银量低测定浓度０．０２ｍｇ／Ｌ。该方法适合于印相，电镀等行业废水银分析。     

气候变化和人类活动对武江流域年径流及最大日流量影响的定量分析

针对气候变化与人类活动对流域年径流及最大日流量变化影响的定量识别问题,以华南湿润区武江流域为例,分别采用HIMS（Hydro-Informatic Modeling System）模型和敏感性系数法,从日和年尺度定量模拟和评估气候变化与人类活动对流域年最大日流量和径流变化的影响过程及贡献率。结果表明：HIMS模型在武江流域适用性良好,日尺度模型率定期和验证期的纳西效率系数分别为0.85和0.77,水量平衡误差绝对值分别为3.1%和3.3%;两种方法均表明气候变化是引起流域年径流量增加的主要因素,人类活动导致了流域径流量的减少,但贡献率较小。气候变化与人类活动导致了流域年最大日流量的增加,气候变化对年最大日流量增加的贡献率为94%,而人类活动的贡献率则为6%。相较于年均径流量,气候变化对年最大日流量的影响更为显著。     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

Monitoring of Butter and Ghee (Clarified Butter Fat) for Pesticidal Contamination from Cotton Belt of Haryana, India

Butter (45) and ghee (55) samples were collected from rural and urban areas of cotton growing belt of Haryana and analysed for detecting the residues of organochlorine, synthetic pyrethroid and organophosphate insecticides. The estimation was carried out by using multi residue analytical technique employing GC-ECD and GC-NPD systems equipped with capillary columns. Butter samples were comparatively more contaminated (97%) than ghee (94%), showing more contamination with organochlorine insecticides from urban samples. About 11% samples of butter showed endosulfan residues above MRL value and 2% samples had residues of synthetic pyrethroids and organophosphates each above their respective MRL values. In ghee, residues of HCH & DDT both and of endosulfan exceeded the MRL values in 5 and 20% samples, respectively. Among organophosphates, only chlorpyriphos was detected with 9% samples showing its residue above MRL value. Irrespective of contamination levels, residues above the MRL values were more in ghee. More extensive study covering other agricultural regions/zones of Haryana has been suggested to know the overall scenario of contamination of milk products.     

Monitoring of Seasonal Vegetables for Pesticide Residues

Market samples (60) of six seasonal vegetables were monitoredduring 1996–1997 to determine the magnitude of pesticidalcontamination. The estimation of insecticide residuesrepresenting four major chemical groups i.e. organochlorine,organophosphorous, synthetic pyrethroid and carbamate, was doneby adopting a multiresidue analytical technique employingGC-ECD and GC-NPD systems with capillary columns. The testedsamples showed 100% contamination with low but measurableamounts of residues. Among the four chemical groups, theorganophosphates were dominant followed by organochlorines,synthetic pyrethroids and carbamates. About 23% of the samplesshowed contamination with organophosphorous compounds abovetheir respective MRL values. More extensive studies coveringdifferent regions of Haryana state are suggested to get a clearidea of the magnitude of vegetable contamination with pesticideresidues.     

Euclidean贴近度水质评价法及其应用

分析了模糊综合评判在水质评价中的缺陷,将模糊数学中的贴近度与经典的Euclidean距离结合,提出Euclidean贴近度水质评价法。结果表明,该评价方法具有科学性、合理性,并且精度高,简单实用。     

区域环境风险研究进展探讨

主要围绕国内外在区域环境风险领域的研究进展、趋势与不足进行分析评述,在此基础上提出了进行区域环境风险水平及阈值研究,并进行动态调控的研究新思路。     

多级模糊模式识别方法用于湖泊水质评价

进行模糊综合评估的应用与研究很多，在那些方法中主要应用最大隶属度原则进行最后的评定，但是湖泊水质评价涉及到多样点多项指标等多因素，一般模糊综合评价方法中的最大隶属度原则不能适用。本文利用多级模糊模式识别方法的基本理论，通过多目标优选，给出了更加合理、科学的评价模型；利用该模型我们对武汉市东湖水质监测结果做出了较为合理的评价。     

连杆多工步弯曲模设计

介绍了一种原理和结构都较新颖的连杆弯曲模的设计方法和使用特点.