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1.
Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations
to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the
effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to
the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other
hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the
time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects.
Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations
observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic
density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and
climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February
2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied.
One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong
persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons
is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological
variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial
dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter.
The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O3 and PM to examine underlying trends.
Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model
yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval
for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in
trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates
out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results
in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal
variations.
Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the
analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological
conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions.
There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle
and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic
density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions
which is a direct consequence of the holiday period.
Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend
results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect
of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering
the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an
estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions.
Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant
reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site
with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes
in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability 相似文献
2.
Evolution of environmental impact assessment as applied to watershed modification projects in Canada
Herman J. Dirschl Nicholas S. Novakowski M. Husain Sadar 《Environmental management》1993,17(4):545-555
This article reviews the application of environmental impact assessment (EIA) procedures and practices to three watershed
modification projects situaled in western Canada. These ventures were justified for accelerating regional economic development,
and cover the period during which public concerns for protecting the environment rapidly made their way into the national
political agenda. An historical account and analysis of the situation, therefore, seems desirable in order to understand the
development of EIA processes, practices, and methodologies since the start of construction of the first project in 1961. This
study concludes that there has been good progress in predicting and evaluating environmental and related social impacts of
watershed modification proposals. However, a number of obstacles need to be overcome before EIA can firmly establish itself
as an effective planning tool. These difficulties include jurisdictional confusions and conflicts, division of authority and
responsibility in designing and implementing appropriate mitigative and monitoring measures, lack of tested EIA methodologies,
and limited availability of qualified human resources. A number of conclusions and suggestions are offered so that future
watershed modification proposals may be planned and implemented in a more environmentally sustainable fashion. These include:
(1) EIA processes must be completed before irrevocable decisions are made. (2) Any major intrusion into a watershed is likely
to impact on some major components of the ecosystem(s). (3) Mitigation costs must form part of the benefit-cost analysis of
any project proposal. (4) Interjurisdictional cooperation is imperative where watersheds cross political boundaries. (5) The
EIA process is a public process, hence public concerns must be dealt with fairly. (6) The role of science in the EIA process
must be at arms length from project proponents and regulators, and allowed to function in the interest of the protection of
the environment and public health and safety.
The views expressed here are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect those of FEARO and/or other government agencies
and officials involved in the review of these projects. 相似文献
3.
论环境产业 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
曹曼 《中国人口.资源与环境》2008,18(6)
本文在可持续发展视角下,把环境的保护、修复、维护的生产活动及与之直接相关的服务活动称为环境产韭,包括发挥减少、避免污染环境作用的资源再利用鼗和发挥治理污染物与修复、改善环境作用的环境维护业.通过探讨环境产业的内涵、发展历程、运行机制和在产业体系中的位置与作用,指出环境产业是在法规保障下政府强行推动产生和发展起来的,是产业体系中不可缺少的重要组成部分;考虑自然环境对社会行为的影响,改进政府行为构建适台环境产业与传统产业协调发展的经济体制是加快发展环境产业的关键. 相似文献
4.
爆炸事故过程分析中不确定性问题处理方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对事故过程分析中的不确定性问题,指出了不确定问题在危险分析中的重要性及处理该问题的复杂性和难点,列出了几种基于非线性数学方法处理不确定问题的基本方法,如微分法、MonteCarlo模拟、Fourier方法、响应表面法等,并对之进行了比较.建议在处理事故过程的不确定性时采用Monte Carlo模拟. 相似文献
5.
焦化废水处理过程中产生的焦油、污泥和结晶杂盐等固相物质,既有资源属性,又有污染特性,但目前缺乏基于能源、经济及环境影响方面的评估.本研究阐述了3类固相物质的形成机制,建立了质量当量计算及处置方法评价模型.以宝武集团韶关钢铁股份有限公司焦化厂(二期)焦化废水处理工程的A/O/H/O(厌氧/好氧/水解/好氧)流化床工艺作为考察对象,利用工程运行参数和水质统计数据进行固相物质的产量推算,结果发现,焦油、物化污泥、生物污泥(含水率为80%)和工业杂盐的产率分别为0.186、5.80、4.24和1.97 kg·m-3.通过处置方法评价模型明确了焦油焚烧、污泥热解、结晶杂盐分盐提纯后工业应用是最佳处置方案,在60 m3·h-1废水处理规模的固相物质处置过程中,每年约产生1177 MWh的能源,获得135.0万元的经济效益,排放627.0 t CO2,表明能源回收、经济效益和环境影响的协同存在. 相似文献
6.
结合天气形势,地面观测资料和WRF-CMAQ模式,分析了2017年7月8~15日成都市一次罕见持续O3污染过程的特征及成因,量化了各个物理化学过程对此次污染过程的相对贡献,并通过敏感性实验分析了四川盆地内O3及其前体物的区域传输和本地光化学反应对此次污染过程的影响.结果表明,此次O3持续污染过程主要是因为四川盆地内盛行偏东风,导致盆地东部城市群的O3及其前体物经区域输送到成都及周边地区,加之成都市出现小风、气温升高等气象条件进而形成,属于典型的传输性爆发污染.持续污染形成的主要物理化学机制体现为日间气相化学过程贡献为稳定的正值,加之输送过程贡献出现爆发式升高,进而导致近地面O3小时净增量迅速上升且高达50μg/(m3·h),随之O3浓度迅速响应,产生爆发式增长.此外,敏感性实验结果显示此次成都市O3持续污染的形成受区域输送影响较受本地光化学反应影响更为明显.O3污染爆发前上游地区高浓度O3及其前体物沿流场输送并在成都及周边地区不断积累,导致日间O3浓度不断升高. 相似文献
7.
以漓江流域为例查明不同水体之间氢氧稳定同位素组成特征,并探讨氢氧稳定同位素对漓江流域的蒸发过程指示作用.结果表明:流域内不同水体之间,氢氧稳定同位素表现出不同的组成特征,地表水和地下水,在丰水期δD值和δ18O值要比枯水期更容易富集,地下水的δD值和δ18O值分布范围较地表水小;随着水温的升高,δ18O的变化趋势比d-excess明显.从漓江上游到下游高程逐渐下降,河水线的斜率和截距也在逐渐减小,其中漓江下游河水线的斜率和截距要低于当地大气降水线,表明下游受到蒸发作用较强烈;地下河水线、地表河水线在一定程度上偏离当地大气降水线,但偏离程度较小,表明三者之间有很好的水力联系.受温度和湿度的共同影响,漓江干流丰水期河水的蒸发量占最初水体总量的0.7%~9.1%,枯水期河水的蒸发量占最初水体总量的2.6%~9.7%,丰水期的蒸发比例低于枯水期,从上游到下游蒸发比例在逐渐上升.研究区蒸发量估算值为959.40mm,与多年实测值少43.11mm,相对误差4.70%.氢氧稳定同位素对研究区降水、地表水、地下水之间的转换规律具有重要的实际意义,在今后的漓江流域水文研究中有着更加广阔的空间. 相似文献
8.
目的研究密封组合形式对结构密封性能的影响。方法开展密封性能试验,从密封形式、装配形式和涂覆形式的3种组合形式开展试验研究,找出结构密封性能影响因素,筛选密封最优组合形式。结果结构密封3种组成形式分别为有无贴合面的密封形式,干涉装配、湿装配形式,部分涂覆、全涂覆形式。开展2种应力水平下8种密封组合形式的密封性能试验,在保证密封工艺质量条件下,按照飞机结构和受载特点选取合理密封组合形式能有效提高结构密封性能。结论在飞机应力较高、不常拆的密封部位应选择贴合面密封、干涉装配、部分涂覆的密封组合形式,在飞机结构设计要求间隙装配、常拆卸的密封部位选择贴合面密封、湿装配、部分涂覆的密封组合形式。 相似文献
9.
提出了滤纸法测定悬浮物时,水样的酸碱度,取样量的多少对悬浮物测定有直接的影响。通过实验验证,对于偏酸,偏碱的水样用酸碱中和后再过滤即可消除影响,取样量应根据悬浮物的不同而定。 相似文献
10.
Prasanta Kumar Dey 《Environmental Impact Assessment Review》2002,22(6):509
The cross-country petroleum pipelines are environmentally sensitive because they traverse through varied terrain covering crop fields, forests, rivers, populated areas, desert, hills and offshore. Any malfunction of these pipelines may cause devastating effect on the environment. Hence, the pipeline operators plan and design pipelines projects with sufficient consideration of environment and social aspects along with the technological alternatives. Traditionally, in project appraisal, optimum technical alternative is selected using financial analysis. Impact assessments (IA) are then carried out to justify the selection and subsequent statutory approval. However, the IAs often suggest alternative sites and/or alternate technology and implementation methodology, resulting in revision of entire technical and financial analysis. This study addresses the above issues by developing an integrated framework for project feasibility analysis with the application of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique. The model considers technical analysis (TA), socioeconomic IA (SEIA) and environmental IA (EIA) in an integrated framework to select the best project from a few alternative feasible projects. Subsequent financial analysis then justifies the selection. The entire methodology has been explained here through a case application on cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. 相似文献