Understanding traffic crash under-reporting: Linking police and medical records to individual and crash characteristics

Objective: This study aligns to the body of research dedicated to estimating the underreporting of road crash injuries and adds the perspective of understanding individual and crash factors contributing to the decision to report a crash to the police, the hospital, or both.

Method: This study focuses on road crash injuries that occurred in the province of Funen, Denmark, between 2003 and 2007 and were registered in the police, the hospital, or both authorities. Underreporting rates are computed with the capture–recapture method, and the probability for road crash injuries in police records to appear in hospital records (and vice versa) is estimated with joint binary logit models.

Results: The capture–recapture analysis shows high underreporting rates of road crash injuries in Denmark and the growth of underreporting not only with the decrease in injury severity but also with the involvement of cyclists (reporting rates of about 14% for serious injuries and 7% for slight injuries) and motorcyclists (reporting rates of about 35% for serious injuries and 10% for slight injuries). Model estimates show that the likelihood of appearing in both data sets is positively related to helmet and seat belt use, number of motor vehicles involved, alcohol involvement, higher speed limit, and females being injured.

Conclusions: This study adds significantly to the literature about underreporting by recognizing that understanding the heterogeneity in the reporting rate of road crashes may lead to devising policy measures aimed at increasing the reporting rate by targeting specific road user groups (e.g., males, young road users) or specific situational factors (e.g., slight injuries, arm injuries, leg injuries, weekend).     

中国东中西部经济带的水环境库兹涅茨假说实证及其影响因素研究

“八五”至“十二五”期间,中国取得巨大的经济成果的同时带来了严重的水环境污染问题.文章分析了东中西部三大经济带经济发展及COD和氨氮两种主要水污染排放的差异,及其与经济发展的关系进行了EKC假说的实证研究.研究结果表明,部分污染物的拟合曲线尚处于上升阶段,未能出现典型的倒U型曲线,可能导致水环境质量恶化.环境基础设施建设、人口分布和产业结构等因素与COD和氨氮的排放量密切相关,因此,中国必须采取各种环境管理和技术手段,促使区域水污染物排放量指标与经济发展的拟合曲线出现转折点,改善水环境质量.     

Ecological knowledge and North Sea environmental policies

In an analysis of North Sea eutrophication science and policies, focusing on the period 1980–2005, it was investigated how scientific information was used in policy-making. The analysis focused on the central assumptions of the rational policy-making model, i.e. that scientific information can be used to formulate decisions, based upon objective scientific information (rational decision-making), and secondly, can support implementing these decisions (rational management). In general terms, the following was concluded:

• •More knowledge has increased rather than reduced uncertainty;
• •In order to handle the problem of dealing with complexity and uncertainty at the political level, a simplification of facts has occurred, in this case focusing on nutrients as the main cause of the problem, at the same time excluding other possible causes;
• •Both the limited scientific view (i.e. the nutrient view) and the exaggeration of the seriousness of the problem (impacts, scope) have been used as an authoritative basis for the justification of political decisions. Both were not supported by the majority of the scientific community;
• •New scientific knowledge, not in support of existing policies, has been excluded from the policy process;
• •The science–policy interface, mainly consisting of “civil-servant scientists”, that emerged and increased its influence over the period of investigation, has been the central element in the simplification and exclusion process.

The main lesson learned is that work at the interface of science and policy must be subject to democratic principles, i.e. be transparent and involving all parties with a stake in the issue under consideration.     

桂南地下热水系统中氟的分布及迁移富集规律

选取广西桂南地区地下热水系统为研究对象,利用氢氧同位素及锶同位素研究手段,对研究区内地下热水中氟的空间分布规律及其控制因素进行研究。结果表明:研究区内地下热水中氟含量变化范围为0.01~17.93mg/L,其中43%地下水样品中氟含量超过饮用水氟骨症临界值1.5mg/L,高氟地下热水的主要水化学类型为Na-HCO3型,水体中氟含量与温度呈明显正相关性;地下热水氢氧同位素特征显示,研究区地下热水的主要来源为大气降水,同时受一定程度蒸发浓缩及水-岩作用影响,地下热水锶同位素特征显示,研究区地下热水水化学组成明显受长石、云母等铝硅酸盐风化及碳酸盐岩溶解影响;对地下热水水化学开展的因子分析结果显示,研究区地下热水系统中影响氟迁移释放的主要因素为萤石的溶解与沉淀过程。     

Water reforms in Brazil: opportunities and constraints

The last decade saw repeated attempts to adopt and implement an integrated management of water in Brazil. Internationally established principles, such as water economics and public participation, have influenced the development of a novel regulatory framework for water use and conservation in the country. However, despite changes in policies and in the legislation, the opportunity to address old and new management problems has been largely frustrated by the internal contradictions of the ongoing institutional reforms. A case study of the Paraíba do Sul River Basin demonstrates the distance between, on the one hand, calls for decentralisation and responsibility sharing and, on the other hand, the persistence of bureaucratised and exclusionary practices. The main distortion is the excessive effort expended on the introduction of water pricing and environmental charges, a controversial policy instrument that has dominated the agenda of the new river basin committee, at the expense of addressing river restoration, public mobilisation and environmental justice.     

Fighting rules and rival recognition reduce costs of aggression in male lizards, Podarcis hispanica

The establishment of fighting rules and the ability to recognise individual conspecifics and to assess their fighting ability and/or roles may help to reduce costs of fighting. We staged encounters between males of the lizard Podarcis hispanica to examine whether lizards used fighting strategies and whether a previous agonistic experience affects the outcome and characteristics of a subsequent encounter. The results showed that simple rules such as body size differences and residence condition were used to determine the outcome of agonistic interactions as quickly as possible. Thus, larger males were dominant in most encounters. However, when size differences between opponents are smaller, they may be more difficult to estimate and, then, residence condition was more important. In addition, the intensity of interactions between males could be explained according to the ”sequential assessment game”, supporting the idea that P. hispanica males acquire information about fighting ability gradually during the progress of a fight. Our results also showed that the second fight of the same pair of males was less aggressive, even when its outcome was the opposite of the first. This result suggests that male P. hispanica can recognise individual opponents and that they use this information to reach a contest outcome more quickly, thus reducing unnecessary aggression levels in subsequent interactions. These fighting strategies and assessment mechanisms may help to stabilise the social system of this lizard. Received: 2 November 1999 / Revised: 26 August 2000 / Accepted: 4 September 2000     

Predicting categories of drugs used by suspected drug-impaired drivers using the Drug Evaluation and Classification Program tests

Objective: The purpose of this study was to statistically determine which combination(s) of drug-related signs and symptoms from the Drug Evaluation and Classification (DEC) protocol best predict the drug category used by the suspected drug-impaired driver.

Methods: Data from 1,512 completed DEC evaluations of suspected impaired drivers subsequently found to have ingested central nervous system (CNS) depressants, CNS stimulants, narcotic analgesics, and cannabis were analyzed using a multinomial logistic regression procedure. A set of evaluations completed on drug-free subjects was also included. The relative importance of clinical, behavioral, and observational measures in predicting drug categories responsible for impairment was also examined.

Results: Thirteen drug-related indicators were found to significantly contribute to the prediction of drug category, including being under the care of a doctor or dentist, condition of the eyes, condition of the eyelids, mean pulse rate, assessment of horizontal gaze nystagmus (HGN), convergence, performance on the One Leg Stand (OLS) Test, eyelid tremors, pupil size in darkness, reaction to light, presence of visible injection sites, systolic blood pressure, and muscle tone. Indicators related to the appearance and physiological response of the eye contributed the most to the prediction of drug category, followed closely by clinical indicators and performance on the psychophysical tests.

Conclusions: The findings from this study suggest that drug recognition experts (DREs) should be careful to review a set of key signs and symptoms when determining the category of drug used by suspected drug-impaired drivers. Drug use indicators related to the appearance and physiological response of the eye were found to contribute the most to the prediction of the drug category responsible for the impairment. These results could help form the basis of a core set of indicators that DREs could initially consult to form their opinion of drug influence. This in turn may enhance the validity, effectiveness, and efficiency of drug detection and identification by DREs and lead to a more effective and efficient DEC program, improved enforcement of drug-impaired driving, and greater acceptance of the DEC program by the courts.     

Application of chemometric analysis based on physicochemical and chromatographic data for the differentiation origin of plant protection products containing chlorpyrifos

The aim of this study was to investigate the similarities and dissimilarities between the pesticide samples in form of emulsifiable concentrates (EC) formulation containing chlorpyrifos as active ingredient coming from different sources (i.e., shops and wholesales) and also belonging to various series. The results obtained by the Headspace Gas Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry method and also some selected physicochemical properties of examined pesticides including pH, density, stability, active ingredient and water content in pesticides tested were compared using two chemometric methods. Applicability of simple cluster analysis and also principal component analysis of obtained data in differentiation of examined plant protection products coming from different sources was confirmed. It would be advantageous in the routine control of originality and also in the detection of counterfeit pesticides, respectively, among commercially available pesticides containing chlorpyrifos as an active ingredient.     

Prediction of response of zooplankton biomass to climatic and oceanic changes

This paper examines the long-term variation in zooplankton biomass in response to climatic and oceanic changes, using a neural network as a nonlinear multivariate analysis method. Zooplankton data collected from 1951 to 1990 off the shore of northeastern Japan were analyzed. We considered patterns of the Kuroshio and the Oyashio, sea surface temperature, and meteorological parameters as environmental factors that affect zooplankton biomass. Back propagation neural networks were trained to generate mapping functions between environmental variables and zooplankton biomass. The performance of the network models was tested by varying the numbers of input and hidden units. Changes in zooplankton biomass could be predicted from environmental conditions. The neural network yielded predictions with smaller errors than those of predictions determined by linear multiple regression. The sensitivity analysis of networks was used to extract predictive knowledge. The air pressure, sea surface temperature, and some indices of atmospheric circulation were the primary factors for predictions. The patterns of the Kuroshio and the Oyashio demonstrated different effects among sea areas.