成都市可持续发展水平空间分布特征

本文通过对成都市 8县 4市 3区的可持续发展静态指数计算 ,定量地表达了成都市各区县目前可持续发展状况的对比关系 ,分析造成这种格局的原因并提出相应对策     

基于ARDL模型长三角碳排放、能源消费和经济增长关系研究

碳排放量、能源消费量和经济增长间存在着密切的关系。长三角地区(研究该区域为上海、浙江、江苏,简称长三角,下同）碳减排措施的实施是否会影响长三角地区的经济增长,能源消费量、能源结构和碳排放量间存在何种联系,这些均是在长三角碳减排政策制定中亟待考虑的问题。利用1990~2010年,长三角的能源经济样本数据,使用ARDL模型和格兰杰因果检验模型（Granger）定量的研究了上述几个因素之间的关系。研究发现：当碳排放量、能源消费和经济增长分别为回归变量时,均存在其它解释变量和每个回归变量间的长期稳定的协整关系。在长期关系中,存在经济增长对碳排放量的负向弹性影响。能源消费对经济增长的影响为正,能源消费每增长1%,经济增长0.67%。碳排放量对经济增长的长期影响为负,碳排放量每增长1%,经济则减少0.49%。Granger因果关系的研究表明：滞后长度分别为3,4时,存在从经济增长到能源消费和碳排放量倒的单向因果关系。不存在从能源消费和碳排放量到经济增长的单向因果关系,且亦不存在碳排放量和能源消费的双向因果关系。在长三角,制定和实施适当的节能减排政策将不会阻碍该地区经济增长。节能减排政策的制定,应首先考虑能源结构优化,降低长三角高碳能源的消费比重     

Decomposition Analysis of Sectoral Energy Use in Beijing （1981-2005） Using the LMDI Method

This paper aims to identify the main driving force for changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing during the period of 1981-2005. Sectoral energy use was investigated when regional economic structure changed significantly. The changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing are decomposed into production effects, structural effects and intensity effects using the additive version of the logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） method. Aggregate decomposition analysis showed that the major contributor of total effect was made by the production effect followed by the intensity effect, and the structural effect was relatively insignificant. The total and production effects were all positive. In contrast, the structural effect and intensity effect were all negative. Sectoral decomposition investigation indicated that the most effective way to slow down the growth rate of total primary energy consumption （TPEC） was to reduce the production of the energy-intensive industrial sectors and improving industrial energy intensity. The results show that in this period, Beijing＇s economy has undergone a transformation from an industrial to a service economy. However, the structures of sectoral energy use have not been changed yet, and energy demand should be increasing until the energy-intensive industrial production to be reduced and energy intensity of the region reaches a peak. As sequence energy consumption data of sub-sectors are not available, only the fundamental three sectors are considered： agriculture, industry and service. However, further decomposition into secondary and tertiary sectors is definitely needed for detailed investigations.     

河北省矿产资源行业生产资源配置效率的动态分析

矿产资源行业作为国民经济的基础行业,一方面其产出支撑着国民经济的发展,另一方面其投入关乎不可再生资源的最优利用,是解决当前我国环境资源问题的关键环节。正是以矿产资源的最优利用为出发点,在国内矿产资源形势严峻和环渤海经济区经济发展急需大量矿产资源的背景下,选取河北省12个与矿产资源直接相关的行业,运用生产前沿面理论的非参数方法,定量计算并研究这12个行业从1997-2005年生产资源配置效率的理论值及其动态变化趋势,并通过宏观政策分析和生产资源配置效率结构分解分析,找出影响河北省矿产资源行业综合效率变化的因素,进而提出提高河北省矿产资源行业生产资源配置效率的措施。     

贸易自由化对我国环境的影响——基于ACT模型的实证研究

近年来我国对外贸易发展迅速,但伴随而来的环境污染问题也越来越严重。学术界对我国贸易与环境问题进行了多方面研究,但并未得到一致的结论。文参考ACT模型,试图将贸易自由化对我国环境的影响从经济发展对我国环境的整体效应中分离出来进行研究。本文采用panel数据对我国1992-2004年期间贸易自由化的环境效应进行了实证分析,结果表明：贸易自由化对我国环境消极的规模效应和结构效应远远超过了积极的技术效应,即贸易自由化使我国环境恶化。这主要归因于我国粗放型的经济增长方式以及不完善的环境法规。要改善其不利影响,我国应采用法律和经济措施相结合的办法,从而达到减少贸易的规模效应、改变现有贸易结购以及加强其技术效应的目的。     

长江上游干流春季禁渔前后三年渔获物结构和生物多样性分析

根据2000～2005年长江上游干流宜宾、巴南和万州3个江段三层流刺网的监测资料,分析了春禁前后3年渔获物结构和鱼类生物多样性的变化,对长江上游春禁效果进行了初步评价.春禁前后3年共监测到鱼类51种,隶属于3目18科(亚科)36属,以鲤科鱼类为主,占60.8%.春禁后,渔获物主要种类优势度有所下降,部分江段单位捕捞努力量渔获量表现出一定上升趋势,3个江段Margalef指数、Pielou指数和Wilhm改进指数有一定升高,表明种类丰富度有所提高,群落结构趋于复杂,春季禁渔有一定效果.春禁前后渔获物种类的波动,可能与这些种类种群数量少,难以采到有关;春禁后主要种类平均体长、体重仍表现出下降趋势,可能与过度捕捞及资源在短期内难以恢复有关.建议延长禁渔期、严格控制禁渔结束后的捕捞强度等措施来提高禁渔效果,并采取恢复江湖联系、保护重要渔业水域水质、实施水利工程生态调度等措施来配合春禁制度的实施.长江渔业资源的恢复和保护是一个长期而复杂的过程,对长江禁渔效果的准确评估还需要长期监测和深入研究.     

经济发达地区土地利用结构变化预测 --以江苏省江阴市为例

结构决定功能，把握土地利用结构变化的趋势，调整社会经济发展的策略。优化土地利用结构是土地可持续利用的关键。以经济发达地区江苏省江阴市为例，运用马尔柯夫链的理论与方法，构建土地利用结构转移的概率矩阵，预测江阴市2005年和2010年的土地利用结构，并分析其变化特征，以此来研究经济发达地区近期内可能的土地利用结构变化规律。模拟结果表明，经济发达地区土地利用结构变化存在着非农化趋势加快．农地数量减少加速的现象，如果为保证耕地的数量平衡，则可能导致农地内部结构极其不合理。根据研究结果，提出适当释放农地，促进经济发展；运用经济杆杠，提高非农用地利用效率；重视耕地质量，改善生态环境的政策建议。     

山区发展与特色经济研究--以湖北省恩施自治州为例

以湖北省恩施自治州为例，探讨了山区发展特色经济的重要途径。对其资源环境结构与产业结构作了对应分析，得出该区经济发展的优势在“山林”，而不在“耕地”，在地方“特色资源”，而不在“大众资源”。并采取经济区位商法，对本区众多资源进行了优势评价。根据其资源优势特点，指出恩施的优势在“山上”，应走以“绿色农业”为基础、以轻型加工业为主的发展道路，使本地区的经济结构由长期以来的一、二、三产业低位的传统排序逐步变为高层面的二、一、三的新排序。构建符合山区特色的产业结构。     

Technological Progress, Structural Change and China＇s Energy Efficiency

China has witnessed rapid economic development since 1978, and during the time, energy production and consumption developed at a tremendous speed as well. Energy efficiency which can be measured by energy consumption per unit of GDP, however, experienced continuous decrease. Theoretically, the change of energy efficiency can be attributed to industry structural change and technological change. In order to explain the transformation of Chinese energy efficiency, we adopt logarithmic mean Divisia index techniques to decompose changes in energy intensity in the period of 1994-2005. We find that technological change is the dominant contributor in the decline of energy intensity, but the contribution has declined since 2001. The change in industry structure has decreased the energy intensity before 1998, but raised the intensity after 1998. Decomposed technological effects for all sectors indicate that technological progresses in high energy consuming industries such as raw chemical materials and chemical products, smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, manufacture of non-metallic mineral products and household contribute are the principal drivers of China＇s declining energy intensity.     

Agricultural Structure in Western China by Comparing with before and after CFFG Based on Shift-share Method

Based on shift-share method, this article employs re- gional share, structural shift and competitive shift to analyze the structural benefit and competitive position of agricultural structure in western China by comparing with agriculture, foresting, stockbreeding and fishing before and after Conversion of Farmland to Forest and Grassland （CFFG）. Then authors draw following conclusion： while CFFG program has been put in practice, the agricultural structure in western China has some typical characteristics, such as growth faster, structural predominance obvious and more competitive. But the contributiveness from the competition is not too much yet, and the structural benefit of forest estate and stockbreeding are restrained.