Threatened Species and the Potential Loss of Phylogenetic Diversity: Conservation Scenarios Based on Estimated Extinction Probabilities and Phylogenetic Risk Analysis

Abstract: New species conservation strategies, including the EDGE of Existence (EDGE) program, have expanded threatened species assessments by integrating information about species' phylogenetic distinctiveness. Distinctiveness has been measured through simple scores that assign shared credit among species for evolutionary heritage represented by the deeper phylogenetic branches. A species with a high score combined with a high extinction probability receives high priority for conservation efforts. Simple hypothetical scenarios for phylogenetic trees and extinction probabilities demonstrate how such scoring approaches can provide inefficient priorities for conservation. An existing probabilistic framework derived from the phylogenetic diversity measure (PD) properly captures the idea of shared responsibility for the persistence of evolutionary history. It avoids static scores, takes into account the status of close relatives through their extinction probabilities, and allows for the necessary updating of priorities in light of changes in species threat status. A hypothetical phylogenetic tree illustrates how changes in extinction probabilities of one or more species translate into changes in expected PD. The probabilistic PD framework provided a range of strategies that moved beyond expected PD to better consider worst‐case PD losses. In another example, risk aversion gave higher priority to a conservation program that provided a smaller, but less risky, gain in expected PD. The EDGE program could continue to promote a list of top species conservation priorities through application of probabilistic PD and simple estimates of current extinction probability. The list might be a dynamic one, with all the priority scores updated as extinction probabilities change. Results of recent studies suggest that estimation of extinction probabilities derived from the red list criteria linked to changes in species range sizes may provide estimated probabilities for many different species. Probabilistic PD provides a framework for single‐species assessment that is well‐integrated with a broader measurement of impacts on PD owing to climate change and other factors.     

Should We Protect the Strong or the Weak? Risk,Resilience, and the Selection of Marine Protected Areas

Abstract: It is thought that recovery of marine habitats from uncontrollable disturbance may be faster in marine reserves than in unprotected habitats. But which marine habitats should be protected, those areas at greatest risk or those at least risk? We first defined this problem mathematically for 2 alternate conservation objectives. We then analytically solved this problem for both objectives and determined under which conditions each of the different protection strategies was optimal. If the conservation objective was to maximize the chance of having at least 1 healthy site, then the best strategy was protection of the site at lowest risk. On the other hand, if the goal was to maximize the expected number of healthy sites, the optimal strategy was more complex. If protected sites were likely to spend a significant amount of time in a degraded state, then it was best to protect low‐risk sites. Alternatively, if most areas were generally healthy then, counterintuitively, it was best to protect sites at higher risk. We applied these strategies to a situation of cyclone disturbance of coral reefs on Australia's Great Barrier Reef. With regard to the risk of cyclone disturbance, the optimal reef to protect differed dramatically, depending on the expected speed of reef recovery of both protected and unprotected reefs. An adequate consideration of risk is fundamental to all conservation actions and can indicate surprising routes to conservation success.     

Environmental Synergisms and Extinctions of Tropical Species

Abstract: Environmental synergisms may pose the greatest threat to tropical biodiversity. Using recently updated data sets from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, we evaluated the incidence of perceived threats to all known mammal, bird, and amphibian species in tropical forests. Vulnerable, endangered, and extinct species were collectively far more likely to be imperiled by combinations of threats than expected by chance. Among 45 possible pairwise combinations of 10 different threats, 69%, 93%, and 71% were significantly more frequent than expected for threatened mammals, birds, and amphibians, respectively, even with a stringent Bonferroni‐corrected probability value (p= 0.003). Based on this analysis, we identified five key environmental synergisms in the tropics and speculate on the existence of others. The most important involve interactions between habitat loss or alteration (from agriculture, urban sprawl, infrastructure, or logging) and other anthropogenic disturbances such as hunting, fire, exotic‐species invasions, or pollution. Climatic change and emerging pathogens also can interact with other threats. We assert that environmental synergisms are more likely the norm than the exception for threatened species and ecosystems, can vary markedly in nature among geographic regions and taxa, and may be exceedingly difficult to predict in terms of their ultimate impacts. The perils posed by environmental synergisms highlight the need for a precautionary approach to tropical biodiversity conservation.     

试对我国失地农民问题的理论探讨

失地农民在征地过程中没有得到合理补偿和妥善安置,影响农村经济发展和社会稳定.妥善安置失地农民,解决失地农民的后顾之忧,除控制征地规模,对现行征地制度、利益分配机制进行改革外,为失地农民的长远生计设计更合理的制度性保障已迫在眉睫.     

大同市空气中多环芳烃与人尿中1-羟基芘的分析

用GC~2/MS和HPLC鉴定出大同市空气中的多环芳烃化合物35种.对大同市不同功能区空气中苯并(a)芘(BaP)和人尿中1-羟基芘同步采样分析.结果表明,不同功能区BaP浓度有显著差别:采暖期浓度急剧增加,城区浓度为对照点的17倍,日均值达330ng/m~3.人尿中1-羟基芘的浓度与空气中BaP的浓度显著相关.采暖期城区尿中1-羟基芘的几何均值为1.86μmol/mol肌酐,非采暖期为1.14μmol/mol肌酐,均较北京市的均值高出五倍多.证明大同市由于直接燃煤,造成空气中多环芳烃的严重污染.     

混合液回流比对多点进水新型A/O/A/A/O泥膜耦合工艺脱氮除磷的影响

针对中国南方城镇低碳氮比(低C/N)生活污水的脱氮除磷问题,开发并设计了新型多点进水A1/O2/A3/A4/O5泥膜耦合工艺及中试装置.在进水点1和进水点2的进水流量比为4:6的条件下,通过改变混合液回流比,研究了其对系统中有机物、氮、磷的去除影响及氮素的转化规律.结果表明:当平均进水低C/N比为2.09,混合液回流比...     

Occurrence of aflatoxin M1 in human milk samples in Vojvodina,Serbia: Estimation of average daily intake by babies

The objectives of the study were to determine the aflatoxin M1 content in human milk samples in Vojvodina, Serbia, and to assess the risk of infants' exposure to aflatoxins food contamination. The growth of Aspergillus flavus and production of aflatoxin B1 in corn samples resulted in higher concentrations of AFM1 in milk and dairy products in 2013, indicating higher concentrations of AFM1 in human milk samples in 2013 and 2014 in Serbia. A total number of 60 samples of human milk (colostrum and breast milk collected 4–8 months after delivery) were analyzed for the presence of AFM1 using the Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay method. The estimated daily intake of AFM1 through breastfeeding was calculated for the colostrum samples using an average intake of 60 mL/kg body weight (b.w.)/day on the third day of lactation. All breast milk collected 4–8 months after delivery and 36.4% of colostrum samples were contaminated with AFM1. The greatest percentage of contaminated colostrum (85%) and all samples of breast milk collected 4–8 months after delivery had AFM1 concentration above maximum allowable concentration according to the Regulation on health safety of dietetic products. The mean daily intake of AFM1 in colostrum was 2.65 ng/kg bw/day. Results of our study indicate the high risk of infants' exposure, who are at the early stage of development and vulnerable to toxic contaminants.     

Proposed Conservation Landscape for Giant Pandas in the Minshan Mountains,China

Abstract: The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), is one of the world's most endangered species. Habitat loss and fragmentation have reduced its numbers, shrunk its distribution, and separated the population into isolated subpopulations. Such isolated, small populations are in danger of extinction due to random demographic factors and inbreeding. We used least‐cost modeling as a systematic approach to incorporate satellite imagery and data on ecological and behavioral parameters of the giant panda collected during more than 10 years of field research to design a conservation landscape for giant pandas in the Minshan Mountains. We identified 8 core habitats and 4 potential linkages that would link core habitats CH3, CH4, and CH5 with core habitats CH6, CH7, and CH8. Establishing and integrating the identified habitats with existing reserves would create an efficient reserve network for giant panda conservation. The core habitats had an average density of 4.9 pandas/100 km² and contained approximately 76.6% of the giant panda population. About 45% of the core habitat (3245.4 km²) existed outside the current nature reserves network. Total estimated core habitat decreased between 30.4 and 44.5% with the addition of residential areas and road networks factored into the model. A conservation area for giant panda in the Minshan Mountains should aim to ensure habitat retention and connectivity, improve dispersal potential of corridors, and maintain the evolutionary potential of giant pandas in the face of future environmental changes.     

4种高级氧化法处理高浓度正丙醇废水的动力学比较

研究了1%和10%(V/V)模拟正丙醇废水在UV/TiO2体系、UV/H2O2体系、Fe2+/H2O2体系和UV/TiO2/Fe2+/H2O2体系等4种工艺条件下的降解动力学过程,对比了降解动力学特点及工艺参数对动力学常数的影响,优化工艺参数。结果表明,UV/TiO2体系和Fe2+/H2O2体系的降解过程可分为零级反应阶段和一级反应阶段,转折点分别在反应开始后2 h和氧化剂浓度为6.7 g/L,UV/H2O2体系和UV/TiO2/Fe2+/H2O2体系分别符合零级反应和一级反应规律;相同工艺参数条件下,6 h反应后,组合工艺UV/TiO2/Fe2+/H2O2体系在处理效率达85%,比前3个体系分别高52.0%、8.3%和32.0%,与UV/TiO2体系和Fe2+/H2O2体系的处理效率之和持平,其协同效应提高了速率常数,在目标物浓度降低时依然可维持较高降解速率。而目标物浓度提高10倍后,UV能量利用率提高35.5倍,氧化剂用量是Fe2+/H2O2体系的1/7.1。