TNT当量法预测某石化设备爆炸后果评价

以烃化反应器为模拟发生泄漏事故源,泄漏的物料形成爆炸性气体,发生爆炸事故,采用TNT当量法预测爆炸事故后果,通过公式,计算出因爆炸冲击波导致肺出血而引起死亡的概率为0.5的半径.     

气浮+生物接触氧化工艺处理食品加工废水

通过气浮 生物接触氧化工艺处理速冻食品加工废水的实验、设计和工程运行,结果表明:废水COD去除率能达到97%以上,使得最终出水的COD＜100mg/l.该工艺对冲击负荷有较强的适应性.     

Integrating fisheries into the national development plans of Small Island Developing States (SIDS): Ten years on from Barbados

The development and effective introduction of strategies designed to ensure the ecologically and economically sustainable utilization of coastal and marine resources is perhaps the major challenge for Small Island Developing States (SIDS). In response, the 1994 Barbados Programme of Action (BPoA) called upon the SIDS to implement appropriate coastal and marine strategies and, crucially, ensure that such strategies were integrated into sustainable national development plans (NDPs). This article examines the extent to which contemporary NDPs and donor support programmes have incorporated the fisheries sector — arguably the most important coastal/marine resource for many SIDS — into such documents. Applying an assessment methodology, originally developed to identify levels of environmental mainstreaming within World Bank country assistance strategies to NDPs and donor support programmes, we are able to identify those SIDS who have most effectively integrated the fisheries sector into such documents. Comparison with data indicating the importance of the sector to the national economy (in terms of generating foreign exchange, employment generation and/or supporting domestic protein consumption levels) enables us to pinpoint those countries with substantial fisheries sectors, but a correspondingly lower than expected degree of sectoral mainstreaming. We suggest that the January 2005 review of the BPoA offers an opportune moment for such countries to redress these omissions.     

Knowledge, values, uses and management of the Araucaria araucana forest by the indigenous Mapuche Pewenche people: A basis for collaborative natural resource management in southern Chile

One of the most important endemic tree species of Chile and at the same time one of the most endangered ones is Araucaria araucana (Mol.) C. Koch, the monkey‐puzzle tree. It grows in the Andes Mountains, homeland of the indigenous Mapuche Pewenche people who depend on this tree. This paper is based on field research that investigated the ecological knowledge, uses and management of the Araucaria araucana forest by indigenous Mapuche Pewenche people based on the socio‐cultural, spiritual and ecological relationships they have with the Araucaria forest, to find out how indigenous people and their knowledge could contribute to sustainable Araucaria forest management. A Mapuche Pewenche community located in the IX region of Chile contributed to this study. Based on the analyses this paper illustrates the nature of indigenous ecological knowledge of Araucaria araucana on the one hand, and its utility in native forest management on the other. The research shows that the Mapuche Pewenche hold ecological knowledge and conduct practices to manage their Araucaria forest in a balanced way. They conserve and use forest biodiversity at one and the same time. This paper provides recommendations for sustainable Araucaria forest management and conservation strategies ex‐situ and in‐situ incorporating indigenous knowledge and scientific knowledge and for promoting a collaborative natural resources management.     

A comparative study of US EPA 1996 and 1999 emission inventories in the west Gulf of Mexico coast region, USA

Emission inventory is one of the required inputs to air quality models. To assist in the urban and regional modeling efforts, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has compiled a National Emission Inventory (NEI) for criterion pollutants, and the precursors of ozone and particulate matter (PM). In December 2002, EPA released the 1999 NEI estimates (NEI99), which represent the most recent national emission data. However, the data sets are not in model-ready format for air quality simulations. This present work converts the NEI99 Final Version 2 data sets into Inventory Data Analyzer (IDA) format and processes the data using the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system to generate a gridded emission inventory in a domain covering the west Gulf Coast Region, USA. The spatial and diurnal emission characteristics of the gridded emission inventories are then assessed and compared with those of the National Emission Trend 1996 (NET96). The NEI99 database contains more complete emission records in both area and point sources. It is also found that NEI99 data exhibit greater emissions with respect to point and mobile sources but smaller emissions with respect to area sources when compared to the corresponding gridded NET96 data in the same study domain. The most distinct differences between the NEI99 and NET96 databases are CO emission of mobile sources, SO2 emissions of point sources, and VOC/PM/NH3/NOx emissions of area and non-road sources. The gridded NEI99 data show low VOC/NOx ratios (<2-5) in the urban areas of the study domain.     

突发事件机理体系与现代应急管理体制设计

本文为了增加对突发事件的科学认识,提升应急管理的能力水平,首先对突发事件和应急管理的内在机理进行剖析。通过分阶段、划层次地构建"4L-5S"机理分析模型,将二者划归为统一体系,以理清其逻辑内涵;然后,为顺应时代发展特征,满足应急管理的更高要求,实现应急管理工作从非常态协同应对转为常态化职能管理,对现代应急管理体制加以总体设计。从而,突发事件机理体系设计使得我国的突发事件机理研究逐渐过渡至具有阶段性和层次性,现代应急管理体制设计使得我国应急管理整合出具备现代思维理念的逻辑框架。     

Assessing effects of non-native crayfish on mosquito survival

Introductions of non-native predators often reduce biodiversity and affect natural predator–prey relationships and may increase the abundance of potential disease vectors (e.g., mosquitoes) indirectly through competition or predation cascades. The Santa Monica Mountains (California, U.S.A.), situated in a global biodiversity hotspot, is an area of conservation concern due to climate change, urbanization, and the introduction of non-native species. We examined the effect of non-native crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) on an existing native predator, dragonfly nymphs (Aeshna sp.), and their mosquito larvae (Anopheles sp.) prey. We used laboratory experiments to compare the predation efficiency of both predators, separately and together, and field data on counts of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae sampled from 13 local streams. We predicted a lower predation efficiency of crayfish compared with native dragonfly nymphs and a reduced predation efficiency of dragonfly nymphs in the presence of crayfish. Dragonfly nymphs were an order of magnitude more efficient predators than crayfish, and dragonfly nymph predation efficiency was reduced in the presence of crayfish. Field count data showed that populations of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae were strongly correlated with crayfish presence in streams, such that sites with crayfish tended to have fewer dragonfly nymphs and more mosquito larvae. Under natural conditions, it is likely that crayfish reduce the abundance of dragonfly nymphs and their predation efficiency and thereby, directly and indirectly, lead to higher mosquito populations and a loss of ecosystem services related to disease vector control.     

Estimating abundance without recaptures of marked pallid sturgeon in the Mississippi River

Abundance estimates are essential for assessing the viability of populations and the risks posed by alternative management actions. An effort to estimate abundance via a repeated mark‐recapture experiment may fail to recapture marked individuals. We devised a method for obtaining lower bounds on abundance in the absence of recaptures for both panmictic and spatially structured populations. The method assumes few enough recaptures were expected to be missed by random chance. The upper Bayesian credible limit on expected recaptures allows probabilistic statements about the minimum number of individuals present in the population. We applied this method to data from a 12‐year survey of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the lower and middle Mississippi River (U.S.A.). None of the 241 individuals marked was recaptured in the survey. After accounting for survival and movement, our model‐averaged estimate of the total abundance of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old in the study area had a 1%, 5%, or 25% chance of being <4,600, 7,000, or 15,000, respectively. When we assumed fish were distributed in proportion to survey catch per unit effort, the farthest downstream reach in the survey hosted at least 4.5–15 fish per river kilometer (rkm), whereas the remainder of the reaches in the lower and middle Mississippi River hosted at least 2.6–8.5 fish/rkm for all model variations examined. The lower Mississippi River had an average density of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old of at least 3.0–9.8 fish/rkm. The choice of Bayesian prior was the largest source of uncertainty we considered but did not alter the order of magnitude of lower bounds. Nil‐recapture estimates of abundance are highly uncertain and require careful communication but can deliver insights from experiments that might otherwise be considered a failure.     

Cautioning against overemphasis of normative constructs in conservation decision making

Questions around how to conserve nature are increasingly leading to dissonance in conservation planning and action. While science can assist in unraveling the nature of conservation challenges, conservation responses rely heavily on normative positions and constructs to order actions, aid interpretations, and provide motivation. However, problems can arise when norms are mistaken for science or when they stymy scientific rigor. To highlight these potential pitfalls, we used the ethics-based tool of argument analysis to assess a controversial conservation intervention, the Pelorus Island Goat Control Program. The program proponents' argument for restorative justice was unsound because it relied on weak logical construction overly entrenched in normative assumptions. Overreliance on normative constructs, particularly the invocation of tragedy, creates a sense of urgency that can subvert scientific and ethical integrity, obscure values and assumptions, and increase the propensity for flawed logic. This example demonstrates how the same constructs that drive biodiversity conservation can also drive poor decision making, spur public backlash, and justify poor animal welfare outcomes. To provide clarity, a decision-making flowchart we devised demonstrates how values, norms, and ethics influence one another. We recommend practitioners follow 3 key points to improve decision making: be aware of values, as well as normative constructs and ethical theories that those values inform; be mindful of overreliance on either normative constructs or ethics when deciding action is justified; and be logically sound and transparent when building justifications. We also recommend 5 key attributes that practitioners should be attentive to when making conservation decisions: clarity, transparency, scientific integrity, adaptiveness, and compassion. Greater attention to the role of norms in decision making will improve conservation outcomes and garner greater public support for actions.     

应用相平衡分配法建立湘江衡阳段沉积物重金属质量基准

采集湘江衡阳段29个站点的表层沉积物样品,测定沉积物中4种重金属(Cu、Pb、Zn和Cd)含量及赋存形态、以及孔隙水中重金属含量,根据相平衡分配法的基本理论,考虑参与沉积物-水相平衡分配的重金属组成,实测法计算重金属的沉积物-水相平衡分配系数(Kp),分别引用美国EPA制定保护水生生物不受重金属慢性毒性影响的基本连续浓度(CCC)和我国地表水环境质量标准(GB 3838-2002)Ⅰ类水质标准,建立两种湘江衡阳段沉积物重金属质量基准(SQC)进行对比分析,其中基于美国CCC建立的湘江衡阳段沉积物重金属质量基准与国内外研究成果相比可比性较好,4种重金属(Cu、Pb、Zn和Cd)的SQC值分别为64.62、55.57、1 360.40和2.34μg.g-1,此SQC具有保护长期生活于沉积物中的底栖生物不受重金属慢性毒性影响的意义.通过单因子评价法将湘江衡阳段沉积物中重金属总量与沉积物质量基准值(SQC)进行比较,结果表明,湘江衡阳段沉积物中Cd和Pb含量水平对底栖生物具有较大的慢性毒性影响,Cd污染不容忽视.