基于IRML网络模型的LNG卸料系统故障传播分析

为研究陆地LNG卸料系统的物理设备、信息网络及人员操作的依赖关系和信息层、人员层对设备层故障传播的影响,基于面向基础设施弹性建模语言(Infrastructure Resilience-Oriented Modelling Language,IRML),从单层网络静态风险分析和多层依赖网络的动态传播2个方面,提出LNG...     

念青唐古拉山西段小冰期以来冰川变化

小冰期是指15世纪到20世纪早期之间一系列相对寒冷的气候波动阶段,研究小冰期以来的冰川规模变化,对于了解百年尺度上冰川变化及其气候指示意义具有重要意义。利用Google Earth和Arc GIS10.3研究了念青唐古拉山西段的现代冰川和小冰期冰川,统计了冰川的基本信息和小冰期以来的变化情况,分析了面积、高程、坡度和坡向因素对冰川变化的影响,探讨了平衡线高度变化的气候指示意义。结果表明:念青唐古拉山西段共发育现代冰川847条,总面积约689.71 km~2,共识别出小冰期冰川306条,总面积约746.12 km~2。小冰期以来冰川面积减少约31%,平衡线高度平均上升约58 m,冰川的面积、坡度和高程对冰川面积变化的解释率为71%,平衡线高度变化与印度季风关系密切。     

Selective elimination of chromophoric and fluorescent dissolved organic matter in a full-scale municipal wastewater treatment plant

Effluent organic matter (EfOM) from municipal wastewater treatment plants potentially has a detrimental effect on both aquatic organisms and humans. This study evaluated the removal and transformation of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) in a full-scale wastewater treatment plant under different seasons. The results showed that bio-treatment was found to be more efficient in removing bulk DOM (in terms of dissolved organic carbon, DOC) than CDOM and FDOM, which was contrary to the disinfection process. CDOM and FDOM were selectively removed at various stages during the treatment. Typically, the low molecular weight (MW) fractions of CDOM and protein-like FDOM were more efficiently removed during bio-treatment process, whereas the humic-like FDOM exhibited comparable decreases in both bio-treatment and disinfection processes. Overall, the performance of the WWTP was weak in terms of CDOM and FDOM removal, resulting in enrichment of CDOM and FDOM in effluent. Moreover, the total removal of the bulk DOM (P < 0.05) and the protein-like FDOM (P < 0.05) displayed a significant seasonal variation, with higher removal efficiencies in summer, whereas removal of CDOM and the humic-like FDOM showed little differences between summer and winter. In all, the results provide useful information for understanding the fate and transformation of DOM, illustrating that sub-fractions of DOM could be selectively removed depending on treatment processes and seasonality.     

Complex dynamics of the population with a simple age structure

The effects of the following modes of density-dependent control of population growth: density-dependent birth rate, adult survival rate, juvenile survival rate are compared based on the mathematical model of population dynamics. It is shown that the most efficient mechanisms limiting population size are decreasing with the growth of the adult population birth rate and/or the decreasing survival rate of the offspring with the increase in their number. However, these same mechanisms are responsible for oscillations of the population size and its chaotic change. The density-dependence of the adult survival rate is not efficient in constraining the population growth, but it can substantially limit the magnitude of oscillations of the population size.     

On the importance of life history and age structure in biological invasions

The age specific patterns of reproduction and mortality dictated by the life history of an organism apply to potential invaders as well as resident species of an area, but whether certain life history traits are more invasive than others is an unresolved issue. We analyze a two-population system of an invading and a resident species and test the effects of age on the probability to invade when the organisms are iteroparous or semelparous. The life history characteristics of the populations are projected in Leslie matrices, and the probability that the invader exceeds different population sizes is calculated by Monte Carlo analysis. The simulations show that (a) the invasion probability of an iteroparous organism increases with age until the individuals introduced are mature for first reproduction, and then becomes independent of age; (b) the invasion probability is more age sensitive for iteroparous organisms with high juvenile mortality (Type III organisms) than for those with a lower (Type I); (c) invading semelparous organisms are most affected by competition from resident organisms; (d) variations in vital rates of semelparous residents have greater influence on the invasion probability of an iteroparous organism than variations in traits of the invader.     

Comparative study of the age and location dependence of some heavy metals in human hair from two Nigerian cities

The concentration of some heavy metals (lead, zinc and copper) were determined in the scalp hair of children (1–15 year) and active adults (16–40 year) in two Nigerian cities. The levels of zinc were found to be higher in children than in the adult population. There was a significant difference (P?=?0.05) between the two age groups. The levels of copper were all within the same range for the two age groups and independent of location. The levels of lead were generally higher in adults than in children. However, there was no significant difference (P?=?0.05) in the average concentrations of lead between the children and adult populations of the two cities. The regression analysis indicated a strong correlation (r?=?0.86) between zinc and copper.     

The fire frequency analysis branch of the pyrostatistics tree: sampling decisions and censoring in fire interval data

Statistical characterization of past fire regimes is important for both the ecology and management of fire-prone ecosystems. Survival analysis—or fire frequency analysis as it is often called in the fire literature—has increasingly been used over the last few decades to examine fire interval distributions. These distributions can be generated from a variety of sources (e.g., tree rings and stand age patterns), and analysis typically involves fitting the Weibull model. Given the widespread use of fire frequency analysis and the increasing availability of mapped fire history data, our goal has been to review and to examine some of the issues faced in applying these methods in a spatially explicit context. In particular, through a case study on the massive Cedar Fire in 2003 in southern California, we examine sensitivities of parameter estimates to the spatial resolution of sampling, point- and area-based methods for assigning sample values, current age surfaces versus historical intervals in generating distributions, and the inclusion of censored (i.e., incomplete) observations. Weibull parameter estimates were found to be roughly consistent with previous fire frequency analyses for shrublands (i.e., median age at burning of ~30–50 years and relatively low age dependency). Results indicate, however, that the inclusion or omission of censored observations can have a substantial effect on parameter estimates, far more than other decisions about specifics of sampling.

The Links Between Resource Dependency and Attitude of Commercial Fishers to Coral Reef Conservation in the Red Sea

The imperative to further constrain extractive uses of natural resources will strengthen as resources degrade through over-use or exposure to climate changes. Here, we explore an approach to increase the support for marine conservation among coral reef fishers. We explore the proposition that resource dependency in the Egyptian Red Sea can act as a barrier to conservation. We administered face-to-face surveys to 49% of the fishing industry to: (i) identify the level of compliance to the local marine protected area (MPA), (ii) assess the level of dependency on marine resources in the region and (iii) examine the relationship between resource dependency and conservation attitudes. Only 11.4% of fishers were aware of the MPA. Fishers were mostly limited in their social flexibility and livelihood options. Results suggest that resource dependency is highly and negatively correlated with conservation attitudes suggesting that management efforts need to seriously focus on reducing dependency if conservation goals are to be met.     

The Historical Dynamics of Social–Ecological Traps

Environmental degradation is a typical unintended outcome of collective human behavior. Hardin’s metaphor of the “tragedy of the commons” has become a conceived wisdom that captures the social dynamics leading to environmental degradation. Recently, “traps” has gained currency as an alternative concept to explain the rigidity of social and ecological processes that produce environmental degradation and livelihood impoverishment. The trap metaphor is, however, a great deal more complex compared to Hardin’s insight. This paper takes stock of studies using the trap metaphor. It argues that the concept includes time and history in the analysis, but only as background conditions and not as a factor of causality. From a historical–sociological perspective this is remarkable since social–ecological traps are clearly path-dependent processes, which are causally produced through a conjunction of events. To prove this point the paper conceptualizes social–ecological traps as a process instead of a condition, and systematically compares history and timing in one classic and three recent studies of social–ecological traps. Based on this comparison it concludes that conjunction of social and environmental events contributes profoundly to the production of trap processes. The paper further discusses the implications of this conclusion for policy intervention and outlines how future research might generalize insights from historical–sociological studies of traps.     

农业对小冰期和现代我国七月气候的影响模拟

小冰期是数千年来最引人注目的一个冷期,也是近百年变暖的直接历史背景,该时期我国农业扩展范围已与现代相差无几。自然植被被农业植被替换,对区域水循环和气候变化都产生影响。比较冷暖时期该类影响之差别,有利于认识土地覆盖与气候的联系。文中利用全球和区域气候模式,考察小冰期和现代两种全球背景下我国区域土地覆盖变化对七月平均气候状况的影响。结果表明：小冰期夏季偏冷地区主要在北方,农业具有减缓小冰期大尺度降温的效应,而在较温暖且温度变化较小的华南和华中地区,农业则起一定的降温效应；农业对现代气候下的降水影响不大,但在小冰期背景下却导致降水减少