The effect of motorcyclists’ age on injury severities in single-motorcycle crashes with unobserved heterogeneity

Introduction: Due to the myriad of unique characteristics associated with motorcycle operation, motorcycle safety is a public health concern as complex as it is serious. National crash data suggest motorcyclists are 28 times more likely to be killed when compared to passenger car occupants. In the state of Florida, motorcycle crashes are 1.5 times more likely to result in the death of the rider, placing Florida among the top deadliest states for motorcyclists in the nation. Using police-reported data from 2016, this study addresses the complex and interconnected nature of the many characteristics associated with motorcycle operation by investigating the effect of age on motorcyclists’ riding behavior as it relates to injury severity for single-motorcycle crashes in the state of Florida. Method: To account for unobserved heterogeneity in the crash data, mixed logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances were estimated to model three injury severity outcomes (non-visible, severe, and fatal) for three age groups (under 30, 30–49, and 50 and above). Results: Model results indicate that age affects motorcyclists’ safety perception and ability to assess risks, thereby influencing their involvement in risky behaviors. Characteristics unique to motorcycle operation—spatial characteristics, speed, motorcycle type, time of day, helmet usage, alcohol consumption, ejection from motorcycle, passenger presence, endorsement status, and lighting—are further complicated by their dependency on the characteristics of the individual motorcyclist. Age of motorcyclist indicates a relationship between motorcyclists’ behavior and perceived safety. Conclusion: The model results indicated that statistically significant parameters constituted different models and they were not equal across the age groups of motorcyclists: aged under 30, aged 30–49, and aged 50 and above. Through advanced econometric modeling, this study fills a gap in the existing literature and assists the safety professionals, motorcycle trainers, policymakers, law enforcement agencies, and roadway designers in developing countermeasures.     

Environmental Ethics: Should We Preserve the Red Herring and Flounder?

Based on a survey of some popularintroductory anthologies and texts, I arguefrom my experience as a philosopher oftechnology that environmental philosophy mightbe conceived by some researchers in the fieldin terms of an overly narrow theoreticalfoundation. Many of the key figures in thefield take as a basic assumption that theenvironmental crisis is fundamentally bestexplained in terms of some failing in themetaphysical outlooks of most people. However,philosophers of technology typically present atleast two additional types of generalexplanation of the crisis. Environmentalethicists might benefit from consideration ofthese alternative ways of explaining the rootcauses of the ecological crisis.     

Removal of petroleum tar from bird feathers utilizing magnetic particles

A previously reported acute temperature dependency for the effective removal of tarry residue from feather clusters, utilising magnetic particles, has also been demonstrated to occur for the plumage of whole birds, whereby a maximum removal of up to 96% may be achieved. The experimental design allows an approximate equilibrium constant, for the distribution of contaminant between the residue and the magnetic particles, to be estimated at each temperature. This allows the thermodynamics of the process to be examined via application of the van't Hoff equation, suggesting an explanation for the phenomenon.     

江苏溧水神仙洞的发掘和研究——中华文明史应追溯到万年前

对溧水神仙洞的发掘和进行地质、地貌、孢粉、古脊椎动物与古人类、C14 年代及考古等多学科综合研究结果表明 :该洞是石炭系石灰岩沿层面裂隙经地下水溶蚀而成 ;洞穴堆积物的时代应属全新世早期 ,或新石器时代早期 ,绝对年代距今约为 1.1万年。其中发现的动物群为我国南方晚更新世动物群向现代动物群过渡的类型 ,而代表中 -晚更新世的最后鬣狗与代表新石器时代文化标志的陶片共生 ,为我国第四纪时代的划分 ,或新、旧石器时代文化的划分提供了重要依据。陶片则迄今为止是我国具有完整地层层位记录的最古陶片。它的发现 ,不仅将我国新石器时代文化大大推前 ,更为重写中华古史 ,校正“中华五千年文明”的提法 ,将中华文明追溯到一万年前并重排世界古文明位次增加了依据。同时 ,智人颞骨的发现 ,对长江中、下游古人类的研究 ,也提供了新的资料     

Acute temperature dependency in the cleansing of tarry feathers utilizing magnetic particles

We have conducted temperature-dependent studies on the removal of a solidified tarry residue from feathers using magnetic particles. These studies demonstrate an acute temperature dependency whereby no contaminant at all is removed below a certain temperature but, at and above this temperature, the removal rapidly approaches 100%. Significantly, this temperature is well below the temperature at which the tarry residue becomes a flowing liquid. This demonstrates that it is possible for magnetic cleansing to remove up to 100% of tarry residue from feathers under temperature conditions that would be benign to a bird.     

On the use of growth rate parameters for projecting population sizes: Application to aphids

This paper extends the application of the cumulative size based mechanistic model, which has previously been shown to describe diverse aphid population size data well. The mechanistic model is reviewed with a focus on the explanatory role of the birth and death rate formulation. An analysis of two data sets, one on the mustard aphid and the other on the pecan aphid, indicates that multiple linear regression equations based on the estimated birth and death rate parameters alone account for nearly all (R² > 0.95) of the variability in two key population attributes, namely the peak count and the cumulative density. This indicates that population size variables may be projected directly from the growth rate parameters using linear equations. Such linear relationships based on the birth and death rate parameters are shown to hold also for certain generalized mechanistic models for which the analytical solution is not available. The birth and death rate coefficients, therefore, constitute a new succinct set of variables that could be included in the predictive modeling of aphid populations, as well as other insect and animal populations with local collapse which follow similar growth dynamics.     

Population dynamics models based on cumulative density dependent feedback: A link to the logistic growth curve and a test for symmetry using aphid data

Density dependent feedback, based on cumulative population size, has been advocated to explain and mathematically characterize “boom and bust” population dynamics. Such feedback results in a bell-shaped population trajectory of the population density. Here, we note that this trajectory is mathematically described by the logistic probability density function. Consequently, the cumulative population follows a time trajectory that has the same shape as the cumulative logistic function. Thus, the Pearl–Verhulst logistic equation, widely used as a phenomenological model for density dependent population growth, can be interpreted as a model for cumulative rather than instantaneous population. We extend the cumulative density dependent differential equation model to allow skew in the bell-shaped population trajectory and present a simple statistical test for skewness. Model properties are exemplified by fitting population trajectories of the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines. The linkage between the mechanistic underpinnings of the logistic probability density function and cumulative distribution function models could open up new avenues for analyzing population data.     

Rapid assessment of insect pollination services to inform decision-making

Pollinator declines have prompted efforts to assess how land-use change affects insect pollinators and pollination services in agricultural landscapes. Yet many tools to measure insect pollination services require substantial landscape-scale data and technical expertise. In expert workshops, 3 straightforward methods (desk-based method, field survey, and empirical manipulation with exclusion experiments) for rapid insect pollination assessment at site scale were developed to provide an adaptable framework that is accessible to nonspecialist with limited resources. These methods were designed for TESSA (Toolkit for Ecosystem Service Site-Based Assessment) and allow comparative assessment of pollination services at a site of conservation interest and in its most plausible alternative state (e.g., converted to agricultural land). We applied the methods at a nature reserve in the United Kingdom to estimate the value of insect pollination services provided by the reserve. The economic value of pollination services provided by the reserve ranged from US$6163 to US$11,546/year. The conversion of the reserve to arable land would provide no insect pollination services and a net annual benefit from insect-pollinated crop production of approximately $1542/year (US$24∙ha^–1∙year^–1). The methods had wide applicability and were readily adapted to different insect-pollinated crops: rape (Brassica napus) and beans (Vicia faba) crops. All methods were rapidly employed under a low budget. The relatively less robust methods that required fewer resources yielded higher estimates of annual insect pollination benefit.