Investing in fertilizer–mining companies in times of food scarcity

The primary goal of the paper is to show the validity of investing capital in fertilizer–mining companies, both from a market return perspective for individual or institutional investors, or from a hedging standpoint for insurance companies and other economic actors exposed to inflation risk and high agricultural commodity prices. After providing some elements on the fertilizer market and describing the joint dynamics of corn, wheat and fertilizer prices over the last decade, we analyze an exhaustive sample of listed fertilizer producing companies over the years January 2004–December 2012. We show that their shares generated quite good returns over the whole period and extremely high ones during the years January 2004–December 2007, both in absolute terms and compared to their betas. We also exhibit that these returns display higher sensitivities to major agricultural indexes than to the World Bank Fertilizer Index, making the hedging argument quite compelling.     

流域农业面源污染动态监控系统的建立和运行

提出建立农业面源污染动态监控系统的技术构思,构筑了“辽宁省农业面源污染动态监控系统”的功能及运行机制的构架,阐述了推进此动态监控系统完善的研究方案与系统实施的保证措施。     

解决农村能源问题是治理新疆农业环境的突破口

文中简要叙述了农村能源是农业生态系统和农业环境保护的重要内容之一。指出新疆农村能源缺乏,结构不合理,热效率低,浪费大等,是造成新疆干旱地区生态环境不断恶化的主要原因之一。加强领导,提高能源意识,制定能源发展规划,大力发展农村能源产业和大力营造薪炭林,并增加农村商品能源供应,积极开发利用新能源,解决农村能源建设资金问题。     

吉林西部农业旱灾变化趋势及其成因分析

利用吉林西部近50年的农业成灾面积统计资料和气象资料，提示了西部的农业旱灾整体呈波动上升的变化趋势。特别是进入20世纪80年代以后，在全球温暖化的大环境背景下．旱灾已成为当地农业可待续发展的最主要的障碍因素，并引起一系列的生态环境问题。影响农业的旱灾既有自然因素又有人为因素。针对吉林西部的旱灾，提出了一系列减灾对策。     

Carbon sequestration in soils of SW-Germany as affected by agricultural management—Calibration of the EPIC model for regional simulations

Global emissions trading allows for agricultural measures to be accounted for the carbon sequestration in soils. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was tested for central European site conditions by means of agricultural extensification scenarios. Results of soil and management analyses of different management systems (cultivation with mouldboard plough, reduced tillage, and grassland/fallow establishment) on 13 representative sites in the German State Baden-Württemberg were used to calibrate the EPIC model. Calibration results were compared to those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prognosis tool. The first calibration step included adjustments in (a) N depositions, (b) N₂-fixation by bacteria during fallow, and (c) nutrient content of organic fertilisers according to regional values. The mixing efficiency of implements used for reduced tillage and four crop parameters were adapted to site conditions as a second step of the iterative calibration process, which should optimise the agreement between measured and simulated humus changes. Thus, general rules were obtained for the calibration of EPIC for different criteria and regions. EPIC simulated an average increase of +0.341 Mg humus-C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ for on average 11.3 years of reduced tillage compared to land cultivated with mouldboard plough during the same time scale. Field measurements revealed an average increase of +0.343 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ and the IPCC prognosis tool +0.345 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹. EPIC simulated an average increase of +1.253 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ for on average 10.6 years of grassland/fallow establishment compared to an average increase of +1.342 Mg humus-C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ measured by field measurements and +1.254 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ according to the IPCC prognosis tool. The comparison of simulated and measured humus C stocks was r² ≥ 0.825 for all treatments. However, on some sites deviations between simulated and measured results were considerable. The result for the simulation of yields was similar. In 49% of the cases the simulated yields differed from the surveyed ones by more than 20%. Some explanations could be found by qualitative cause analyses. Yet, for quantitative analyses the available information from farmers was not sufficient. Altogether EPIC is able to represent the expected changes by reduced tillage or grassland/fallow establishment acceptably under central European site conditions of south-western Germany.     

Neutral modelling of agricultural landscapes by tessellation methods—Application for gene flow simulation

Neutral landscape models are not frequently used in the agronomical domain, whereas they would be very useful for studying given agro-ecological or physical processes. Contrary to ecological neutral landscape models, agricultural models have to represent and manage geometrical patches and thus should rely on tessellation methods. We present a three steps approach that aimed at simulating such landscapes. Firstly, we characterized the geometry of three real field patterns; secondly, we generated simulated field patterns with two tessellation methods attempting to control the value of some of the observed characteristics and, thirdly, we evaluated the simulated field patterns. For this evaluation, we considered that good simulated field patterns should capture characteristics of real landscapes that are important for the targeted agro-ecological process. Real landscapes and landscapes simulated using either a Voronoi or a rectangular tessellation were thus compared when used as input data within a gene flow model. The results showed that neither tessellation method captured field shapes correctly, thus leading to over or (small) under estimation of gene flow. The Voronoi tessellation, though, performed better than the rectangular tessellation. Possible research directions are proposed to improve the simulated patterns, including the use of post-processing, the control of cell orientation or the implementation of other tessellation techniques.     

Vegetable fibres from agricultural residues as thermo-mechanical reinforcement in recycled polypropylene-based green foams

Novel lightweight composite foams based on recycled polypropylene reinforced with cellulosic fibres obtained from agricultural residues were prepared and characterized. These composites, initially prepared by melt-mixing recycled polypropylene with variable fibre concentrations (10-25 wt.%), were foamed by high-pressure CO₂ dissolution, a clean process which avoids the use of chemical blowing agents. With the aim of studying the influence of the fibre characteristics on the resultant foams, two chemical treatments were applied to the barley straw in order to increase the α-cellulose content of the fibres. The chemical composition, morphology and thermal stability of the fibres and composites were analyzed. Results indicate that fibre chemical treatment and later foaming of the composites resulted in foams with characteristic closed-cell microcellular structures, their specific storage modulus significantly increasing due to the higher stiffness of the fibres. The addition of the fibres also resulted in an increase in the glass transition temperature of PP in both the solid composites and more significantly in the foams.     

Assessment of GM Crops in Commercial Agriculture

The caliber of recent discourse regarding geneticallymodified organisms (GMOs) has suffered from a lack of consensuson terminology, from the scarcity of evidence upon which toassess risk to health and to the environment, and from valuedifferences between proponents and opponents of GMOs. Towardsaddressing these issues, we present the thesis that GM should bedefined as the forcible insertion of DNA into a host genome,irrespective of the source of the DNA, and exclusive ofconventional or mutation breeding.Some defenders of the commercial use of GMOs have referred to thescientific work of GMO critics as ``junk science.' Such a claim isfalse and misleading, given that many papers critical of both theutility and safety of GMOs have been published in peer reviewedjournals by respected scientists. In contrast, there is a dearthof peer reviewed work to substantiate the frequently heardassertions of either safety or utility in GMOs. The polarity,which now characterizes much of the public discourse on GMOs,reflects not simply scientific disagreement, but alsodisagreement in underlying value assumptions. Value differencesstrongly affect the assessment of both benefit and harm fromGMOs.The concept of substantial equivalence occupies a pivotalposition in the GMO risk assessment process that is used in bothCanada and the US. A GMO judged to be substantially equivalent toa conventional product – as have all submissions to date – ispresumed to be safe enough for commercialization. The conclusionof safety – from both human health and environmental perspectives– should be based on scientific evidence, corroborated by actualexperimentation. However, regulators infer safety largely fromassumptions-based reasoning, with little or no experimentalvalidation. The judgement of safety because of substantialequivalence is a dubious argument by analogy.     

现代生物技术对环境安全的挑战及对策

现代生物技术发展虽历时短暂,但它为解决人类生存和发展危机,实现可持续发展战略带来了一线曙光,因而倍受世人瞩目.同时,由于现代生物技术存在着广泛、潜在而长期的危害及发展不平衡性,从而给人类赖以生存与发展的环境构成了巨大威胁和严峻挑战;它既危及到人类的环境安全,又削弱了可持续发展基础.笔者在分析现代生物技术对人类生存和发展环境构成的威胁与挑战的基础上,探讨了中国入世后所面临的更加严峻的环境安全与压力,并提出规范现代生物技术,促进可持续发展的对策.      

Genetic Engineering in Agriculture: Who Stands to Benefit?

The use of genetic engineering inagriculture has been the source of much debate. Todate, arguments have focused most strongly on thepotential human health risks, the flow of geneticmaterial to related species, and ecologicalconsequences. Little attention appears to have beengiven to a more fundamental concern, namely, who willbe the beneficiaries of this technology? Given the prevalence of chronic hunger and thestark economics of farming, it is arguable thatfarmers and the hungry should be the mainbeneficiaries of agricultural research. However, theapplication of genetic engineering appears unlikely tobenefit either of these two groups. This technology islargely controlled by the private sector, and itscontinued development hinges on its profitability.Thus, the only likely beneficiaries of the applicationof genetic engineering in agriculture are companieswith the capacity to use it.