Sensitivity analysis of North American bird population estimates

The Partners in Flight North American Landbird Conservation Plan provided estimates of population sizes for 448 landbird species using a multiplicative model. Input parameters in this calculation included the area of state × Bird Conservation Region polygons, area-specific mean Breeding Bird Survey counts circa 1995, and adjustment factors for the distance over which species may presumably be correctly counted, the assumed pairing of singing males with non-singing females, and variability in the propensity of birds to sing over the course of the survey day. I assessed the sensitivity of this population calculation to changes in the input parameters. I assessed both local and global sensitivity of the model to changes in the parameters with Monte Carlo one-at-a-time simulations and the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Monte Carlo simulations were an estimate of local model sensitivity whereas FAST estimated global model sensitivity, accommodating the potential shared variance between model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations suggested population estimates were 39% more sensitive to changes in the detection distance adjustment than to the other parameters; the other parameters were nearly equal in their contribution to model sensitivity. Conversely, FAST analysis determined that each of the input variables aside from the pair adjustment provided roughly equal contributions to variability in population estimates. The most efficient means for improving continental population estimates for birds surveyed by the Breeding Bird Survey will be through increased scrutiny of the species-specific distance detection and time-of-day adjustments and improved understanding in the spatial and temporal variability in the mean Breeding Bird Survey count.     

How humans shape wolf behavior in Banff and Kootenay National Parks, Canada

This paper describes the conceptualization and implementation of an agent-based model to investigate how varying levels of human presence could affect elements of wolf behavior, including highway crossings; use of areas in proximity to roads and trails; size of home ranges; activities, such as hunting, patrolling, resting, and feeding pups; and survival of individuals in Banff and Kootenay National Parks, Canada. The model consists of a wolf module as the primary component with five packs represented as cognitive agents, and grizzly bear, elk, and human modules that represent dynamic components of the environment. A set of environmental data layers was used to develop a friction model that serves as a base map representing the landscape over which wolves moved. A decision model was built to simulate the sequence of wolf activities. The model was implemented in a Java Programming Language using RePast, an agent-based modeling library. Six months of wolf activities were simulated from April 16 to October 15 (i.e., a season coherent with regard to known wolf behaviors), and calibrated with GPS data from wolf radiocollars (n = 15) deployed from 2002 to 2004. Results showed that the simulated trajectories of wolf movements were correlated with the observed trajectories (Spearman's rho 0.566, P < 0.001); other critical behaviors, such as time spent at the den and not traveling were also correlated. The simulations revealed that wolf movements and behaviors were noticeably affected by the intensity of human presence. The packs’ home ranges shrank and wolves crossed highways less frequently with increased human presence. In an extreme example, a wolf pack whose home range is traversed by a high-traffic-volume highway was extirpated due to inability to hunt successfully under a scenario wherein human presence levels were increased 10-fold. The modeling prototype developed in this study may serve as a tool to test hypotheses about human effects on wolves and on other mammals, and guide decision-makers in designing management strategies that minimize impacts on wolves and on other species functionally related to wolves in the ecosystem.     

Evaluating Rapid Participatory Rural Appraisal as an Assessment of Ethnoecological Knowledge and Local Biodiversity Patterns

Abstract:  There is a pressing need to find both locally and globally relevant tools to measure and compare biodiversity patterns. Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) is important to biodiversity monitoring, but has a contested role in preliminary biodiversity assessments. We examined rapid participatory rural appraisal (rPRA) (a tool commonly used for local needs assessments) as an alternative to surveys of vascular plants conducted by people with local knowledge. We used rPRA to determine the local-knowledge consensus on the average richness, diversity, and height of local grasses and trees in three habitats surrounding Boumba, Niger, bordering Park-W. We then conducted our own vascular plant surveys to collect information on plant richness, abundance, and structure. Using a qualitative ranking, we compared TEK-based assessments of diversity patterns with our survey-based assessments. The TEK-based assessments matched survey-based assessments on measures of height and density for grasses and trees and tree richness. The two assessments correlated poorly on herb richness and Simpson's D value for both trees and grasses. Plant life form and gender of the participant affected the way diversity patterns were described, which highlights the usefulness of TEK in explaining local realities and indicates limitations of using TEK as a large-scale assessment tool. Our results demonstrate that rPRA can serve to combine local-knowledge inquiry with scientific study at a cost lower than vascular plant surveys and demonstrates a useful blunt tool for preliminary biodiversity assessment.     

The Nature Conservancy's approach to prioritizing conservation action

Like many conservation organizations and federal and state agencies, The Nature Conservancy is in the process of large-scale planning and prioritization efforts. To improve the efficiency of these planning efforts, the Conservancy has developed a methodology for these efforts. The results of these planning efforts will be a conservation blueprint which identifies the conservation areas necessary for conserving biodiversity and a subset of those areas where the Conservancy will focus its immediate efforts over the next 10 years. The subset of all the conservation areas identified in the planning process help The Nature Conservancy determine where it will work. This subset of areas (referred to as action sites) is selected using a tool which ranks key criteria for each conservation area. These criteria include the current conservation status of each area, complementarity to other areas selected, the diversity and viability of targets at the area, the urgency and degree of threats to the targets, the feasibility or opportunity to abate the threats at the area and the leverage potential of working at a conservation area. Taken together, these criteria help planners to select the areas where they will focus their conservation efforts.     

Ken Burns and American Mythology in The National Parks: America's Best Idea

Ken Burns' series on the national parks reveals the evolving values of the American nation, particularly in relation to nature. Through both the beauty and the history of these set apart spaces, Burns presents and to some extent critiques America's mythic dreams of nature. Nature as new world garden and as frontier shapes the story that is told. This essay focuses on two themes, science and pluralism, and argues the presentation of each (the former with less depth, the latter with more) is constrained by the mythic narrative of pristine America that seems unable to evolve, either in the face of ecological values of interrelationships or pluralistic values that re-shape understandings of democracy. More attention to the problematic of the notion of preservation of pristine America would have enabled the film to speak more powerfully not only of the history of the parks, but also of their future.     

Assessing conservation opportunity on private land: socio-economic, behavioral, and spatial dimensions

This study presents a method for assessing conservation opportunity on private land based on landholders' socio-economic, behavioral, and farm characteristics. These characteristics include age, gender, education, level of off-farm income, farm size, proportion of remnant native vegetation on-farm, and ecological value of native vegetation on-farm. A sample of landholders who own greater than 2 ha of land in the South Australian Murray-Darling Basin region were sent a mail-based survey about their values and preferences for environmental management (N = 659, 52% response). Cross-tabulations and ANOVA statistical analysis techniques were used to compare the socio-economic attributes across three landholder classes: disengaged, moderately engaged, and highly engaged in native vegetation planting. Results indicate that highly engaged landholders were more likely to be female, formally educated, hobby farmers who managed small parcels of land and have high off-farm incomes, whereas disengaged landholders held significantly stronger farming connections (more farming experience, family have lived on the farm for more generations). Spatial analysis revealed area-specific differences in conservation opportunity and conservation priority. In some areas, properties of high ecological value were managed by highly engaged landholders, but nearby properties of high value were managed by moderately engaged or disengaged landholders. Environmental managers therefore cannot assume areas of high conservation priority will be areas of high conservation opportunity. At the regional scale, the potential for revegetation seems most promising within the moderately engaged landholder group considering the vast amount of land managed by this group in areas of high ecological value, particularly within the less represented Mallee and Coorong and Rangelands sub-regions. We suggest that incentive schemes which purchase conservation need to be targeted at disengaged landholders; mentoring schemes led by commercial farmers highly engaged in native vegetation planting should be directed at moderately engaged landholders, and; awards programs which acknowledge conservation successes should be targeted at highly engaged landholders.     

Tasmanian landowner preferences for conservation incentive programs: a latent class approach

An empirical model of landowners' conservation incentive program choice is developed in which information about landowners' socio-economic and property characteristics and their attitudes, is combined with incentive program attributes. In a Choice survey landowners were presented with the choice of two incentive programs modelled as 'bundles of attributes' mimicking a voluntary choice scenario. Landowner behaviour and decision and the type of conditions and regulations they preferred were analyzed. Based on choice survey data, landowner heterogeneity was accounted for using a latent class approach to estimate the preference parameters. Three latent classes of landowners with different attitudes to the role and outcome of establishing conservation reserves on private land were identified: multi-objective owners; environment owners; and production owners. Only a small proportion of landowners, mostly environment owners, would voluntarily join a program. Although compensation funding contributed to voluntary program choice for multi-objective owners and environment owners, welfare losses were around 4000 AUD per hectare, which is less than the average agricultural land value in Tasmania. Landowners for whom compensation funding contributed to voluntary program choice were also most likely to set aside land for conservation without payment. This raises the possibility that the government's compensation expenditure could potentially be either reduced or re-allocated to landowners who will not voluntarily take conservation action. Increasing participation in conservation incentive programs and minimizing the welfare losses associated with meeting conservation targets may be best achieved by offering programs that allow flexibility in terms of legal arrangements and other program attributes.     

Adaptive management in the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System: science-management partnerships for conservation delivery

Adaptive management is an approach to recurrent decision making in which uncertainty about the decision is reduced over time through comparison of outcomes predicted by competing models against observed values of those outcomes. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is a large land management program charged with making natural resource management decisions, which often are made under considerable uncertainty, severe operational constraints, and conditions that limit ability to precisely carry out actions as intended. The NWRS presents outstanding opportunities for the application of adaptive management, but also difficult challenges. We describe two cooperative programs between the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to implement adaptive management at scales ranging from small, single refuge applications to large, multi-refuge, multi-region projects. Our experience to date suggests three important attributes common to successful implementation: a vigorous multi-partner collaboration, practical and informative decision framework components, and a sustained commitment to the process. Administrators in both agencies should consider these attributes when developing programs to promote the use and acceptance of adaptive management in the NWRS.