1951-2010年珠江流域洪水极值序列平稳性特征研究

水文序列的平稳性假设是传统水文统计学方法在水文序列分析研究中的基本假设,随着气候变化与人类活动对地表水文过程的影响,这种假设往往存在问题,使水文分析得出误导性结论。以珠江流域28个测站1951—2010年年最大洪峰流量序列为例,用Pettitt方法结合Loess参考函数检验序列中均值和方差变异,用Mann-Kendall(MK)和Spearman法检测时间趋势性,用广义可加模型(GAMLSS)和长期持续效应等具体分析序列的平稳性。研究结果表明:1均值/方差变异主要集中在西江和东江流域,变异时间分别集中在1990年左右和1968—1987年间;2变异点的存在与否对序列趋势检验结果有重要影响,在考虑变异点前提下,珠江流域年最大洪峰流量序列基本无显著趋势性;3在GAMLSS模型中,对于不具有和具有突变点序列,Gamma分布均为选择次数最多的最优极值分布,不具有突变点序列分布参数θ1或θ2非平稳模型与平稳模型差距较小,具有突变点序列则相反;4统计上检测出具有突变点或者显著时间趋势性的测站,同样检测出高Hurst系数,反之亦然。Hurst系数估计因样本容量较小具有较大不确定性。东江流域受流域内水利工程的剧烈影响,尽管检测出高Hurst系数,但仍认定为非平稳序列;西江干流主要受支流汇流和气候变化影响,高Hurst系数表明其水文过程可能是长期稳定过程中局部波动的结果。     

长期施肥对旱塬麦田土壤大团聚体有机碳组分及冬小麦产量的影响

大团聚体是土壤有机碳固存的主要场所,对土壤肥力提升具有重要意义. 为揭示长期不同施肥措施下大团聚体有机碳的固持机制及产量效应,依托8 a定位试验,设不施肥（CK）、农户施肥（NP）、测控施肥（NPK）、测控+有机肥配施（NPKM）以及测控+生物有机肥配施（NPKB）这5个处理,采用“团聚体-密度”联合分组法,分析了黄土旱塬麦田土壤大团聚体中粗颗粒有机碳（cPOC）、细颗粒有机碳（fPOC）、微团聚体颗粒有机碳（iPOC）、游离态粉+黏颗粒有机碳（s+c_f）和微团聚体粉+黏颗粒有机碳（s+c_m）的变化特征及其与土壤碳投入和产量形成之间的关系. 结果表明,长期有机无机配施（NPKM和NPKB）较单施化肥（NP和NPK）显著提高了大团聚体中有机碳（SOC）含量,提升幅度高于对应处理土壤SOC提升幅度. 长期施肥有提高大团聚中cPOC、fPOC和iPOC含量,降低s+c_f和s+c_m含量趋势,且长期有机无机配施显著提高了大团聚中cPOC、fPOC和iPOC储量占比,显著降低了s+c_f储量占比,而长期单施化肥仅显著提升了大团聚中cPOC储量占比. 相关分析表明,小麦籽粒产量与有机碳组分（cPOC和iPOC）含量、土壤总有机碳含量、 >0.25 mm大团聚体有机碳含量以及土壤有机碳投入量存在极显著正相关性,相关系数为0.645~0.883. 综合来看,黄土旱塬麦区长期施肥尤其是有机无机配施,通过增加土壤碳投入量促进了游离态粉+黏颗粒有机碳（s+c_f）向其它形态有机碳的转化,进而整体提升大团聚体有机碳含量,为作物增产创造了良好土壤环境.     

COVID-19 and individual performance in global virtual teams: The role of self-regulation and individual cultural value orientations

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, global virtual teams (GVTs) have become increasingly important. Drawing on conservation of resources theory and self-regulation theory, we examined the mechanism and process underlying individuals' performance in GVTs in this specific situation. We posit that the local severity of the pandemic has a negative effect on individuals' performance in GVTs and that self-regulation functions as a coping mechanism in times of pandemic-related ambient stress, reducing its negative effect on performance. We suggest that three cultural value orientations, that is, uncertainty avoidance, collectivism, and long-term orientation, explain different levels of self-regulation, which in turn moderates the relationship between the local severity of the pandemic and individual performance in GVTs. Based on a sample of 2727 individuals from 31 countries participating in an international business consulting project during the early stage of the unfolding pandemic, we show that (a) the local severity of the pandemic had a negative effect on individuals' performance, (b) the negative effect of the pandemic on performance is weaker for individuals with high self-regulation, and (c) uncertainty avoidance and long-term orientation are positively associated with self-regulation, which mediates the moderating relationship between the cultural value orientations and the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and individual performance in GVTs.     

2010—2016年上海城区臭氧长时间序列变化特征初探

基于2010—2016年上海城区近地面大气臭氧（O₃）的连续在线观测数据，研究了上海城区O₃长时间序列变化规律和污染特征.结果表明，近7年来上海城区O₃污染逐渐凸显，但总体以轻度污染为主，7—8月高温炎热季节以中度污染居多.城区O₃-8 h（臭氧日最大8 h滑动平均）年均增速为3.81 μg·m^-3·a^-1，99%和95%分位值增速较快，分别为6.65和4.94 μg·m^-3·a^-1；25%、50%和75%分位值的增速在3.06~4.45 μg·m^-3·a^-1之间.春季O₃浓度均值较高，年际变化小；夏季极值较高，且污染超标情况最为突出；秋季O₃浓度次于春、夏季，冬季最低；夏、秋和冬季O₃浓度总体呈上升态势.O₃日变化呈"单峰型"，最大值出现在13：00左右，且峰值逐年增加，污染持续时间变长，最小值出现在早晨7：00.城区O₃"周末效应"逐渐减弱.基于KZ过滤器方法的数据分析结果表明，上海城区O₃-8 h长期变化主要受O₃-BF（O₃-8 h的基准组分）影响；O₃-SF（O₃-8 h的天气影响组分）在5—9月对O₃-8 h影响较大，其范围为-98.85~139.60 μg·m^-3.     

Evaluation of alternative water sources for commercial buildings: A case study in Brisbane,Australia

Commercial buildings are central to cities and contribute significantly to the urban demand for natural resources, including freshwater. Green building benchmarking tools include more efficient water use as key indicator of sustainability. This paper explores options for substituting mains drinking water with an alternative, non-potable water source on a fit for purpose basis. The research findings are based on a monitoring study of a commercial building in Brisbane, Australia that is harvesting rainwater for meeting non-potable water demand. The results demonstrated that the system is only achieving moderate reliability in meeting demand due to operational problems. The case study analysis has highlighted the need to include validation and monitoring to ensure the system is operating as per design intent. The paper also investigates the potential of other local, non-potable water sources for high-rise commercial buildings, in particular air conditioning condensate and groundwater inflow to a basement wet well. The paper concludes by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of different local water sources which highlights the need to undertake a site specific investigation to identify a suitable alternative water source, which considers O&M complexity and the capacity of facilities management.