Demographic Processes Underlying Population Growth and Decline in Salamandra salamandra

Abstract:  Human activity commonly has negative impacts on wildlife. Often, however, only a single element of the life cycle is affected, and it is unclear whether such effects translate into effects on population growth. This is particularly true for research into the causes of global amphibian declines, where experimental research focuses primarily on the aquatic larval stages but theory suggests these stages have only minor importance for population growth. We used data from long-term mark-recapture studies of two natural populations of the salamander Salamandra salamandra to confirm the predictions of population models. One population remained stable (i.e., stationary) throughout the 20 years of the study whereas the other declined to local extinction. We used mark-recapture models to break down population growth rate into its two main components, recruitment and adult survival. Survival of postmetamorphic salamanders was constant over time in the stable population, whereas the declining population was characterized by a decrease in survival and constant recruitment. Population growth was most sensitive to variation in adult survival. Current amphibian research focuses on preadult stages, and researchers assume recruitment is the most important determinant of population growth. This may not be the case. A better understanding of amphibian population dynamics is possible only through the integration of experiments, theory, and data from natural populations. Our results also suggest that amphibian conservation efforts should focus on all stages of the life cycle and their associated habitats.     

Disaster resilience and population ageing: the 1995 Kobe and 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes in Japan

This paper provides a framework for evaluating the effects of population ageing on disaster resilience. In so doing, it focuses on the 1995 Kobe and 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes, two major disasters that affected Japan before the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. It analyses regional population recovery on the basis of pre‐disaster and post‐recovery demographic characteristics using defined transition patterns of population ageing. The evaluation framework demonstrates that various recovery measures make different contributions to disaster resilience for each transition pattern of population ageing. With reference to regional population ageing, the framework allows for a prediction of disaster resilience, facilitating place vulnerability assessments and potentially informing policy‐making strategies for Japan and other countries with ageing populations.     

Population dynamics models based on cumulative density dependent feedback: A link to the logistic growth curve and a test for symmetry using aphid data

Density dependent feedback, based on cumulative population size, has been advocated to explain and mathematically characterize “boom and bust” population dynamics. Such feedback results in a bell-shaped population trajectory of the population density. Here, we note that this trajectory is mathematically described by the logistic probability density function. Consequently, the cumulative population follows a time trajectory that has the same shape as the cumulative logistic function. Thus, the Pearl–Verhulst logistic equation, widely used as a phenomenological model for density dependent population growth, can be interpreted as a model for cumulative rather than instantaneous population. We extend the cumulative density dependent differential equation model to allow skew in the bell-shaped population trajectory and present a simple statistical test for skewness. Model properties are exemplified by fitting population trajectories of the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines. The linkage between the mechanistic underpinnings of the logistic probability density function and cumulative distribution function models could open up new avenues for analyzing population data.     

Effects of pollinator density-dependent preferences on field margin visitations in the midst of agricultural monocultures: A modelling approach

Managed field margins offer a means of reducing the impact of agricultural monocultures within intensively managed environments. By providing refuge for wild plants and the pollinators associated with them, field margins can also contribute to enhancing the pollination services within the monoculture. However, the effects of the monoculture on pollinator behaviour need to be carefully considered. It is known that pollinators may show density-dependent preferences such as neophobia (an avoidance of unfamiliar items) when different types of flower are available within their environment, and the dominance of monoculture crops within the environment may consequently have adverse effects upon the preferences shown by pollinators living in the field margins within them. In order to examine how pollinator preferences for wild flowers are affected by monocultures, we modelled the effects of density-dependent preferences, flower densities, and the geometry of field margins within a monoculture landscape using numerical simulations. This was done by considering how the placement of pollinator nests within a simple, spatially explicit landscape consisting of fields of monoculture crops separated by margins containing wild flowers affected the ratio of wild and monoculture crops experienced by the pollinator, given that it could only forage within a limited distance from its nest. Increasing field margin width and decreasing monoculture field width both led to an increase in pollinators visiting wild flowers (which levelled off as width increased). The size of the monoculture fields had little additional effect once they had passed an intermediate width. Increasing wild flower density within the margins led to a shift away from preferring monocultures. When wild flowers were at low densities compared to the monoculture, even the addition of small amounts of extra wild flowers had a large effect in shifting foraging preferences away from the monoculture. The distance which pollinators normally forage over only has an effect upon preferences for wild flowers when the travel distance is small. This suggests that careful consideration of margin design might be extremely important for those species which do not travel far. Innate preferences for density-dependence and particular crop types may also have an effect on preference behaviour. We demonstrate that the way in which resources are presented to indigenous pollinators may be extremely important in influencing where they choose to forage within agricultural landscapes. Careful margin design, as well as increasing the density of wild flowers (such as by enhancing the wild seed bank within the margins), may lead to overall improvements in ecosystem function within intensively farmed monocultures.     

From the ground up: holistic management and grassroots rural adaptation to bovine spongiform encephalopathy across western Canada

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has been documented in 28 countries and adversely affected farmers and rural communities around the world. Our study examines the impacts of and adaptive responses of producers to BSE in western Canada. Moreover, it explores the role that holistic management (HM), and its combined focus on environmental, social, and economic sustainability, might play in mitigating the effects of BSE. One survey was sent to 835 HM producers and another to 9,740 producers across Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. The disease, and concomitant climate change and low commodity prices, had devastating impacts on both groups. Yet, HM producers were much more optimistic about their ability to adapt to BSE and the future of agriculture than their non-HM counterparts. Social networks, namely HM clubs and the larger HM community, enabled these producers to mitigate the impacts of BSE. Agronomic responses, especially those associated with rotational grazing and increases in on-farm biodiversity were also important. That HM has been such an effective adaptive response to BSE indicates the importance of this and other grassroots responses to rural crises, whether they be associated with zoonotic diseases or indeed environmental change as a whole.     

氟铃脲在棉花和土壤中的残留与降解行为研究

利用高效液相色谱分析方法,考查氟铃脲在棉叶及土壤上使用后的降解和残留行为,为安全施药提供依据。采用田间试验法研究氟铃脲在棉叶和土壤中的残留消解动态。氟铃脲在棉叶中的消解动态均满足一级降解动力学过程及其降解常数。按照试验要求,氟铃脲在棉籽中的最终残留均未检出,低于日本规定的最大残留限量值（0.05 mg·kg-1）。该分析方法操作简单,精密度、准确度和灵敏度都符合农药残留标准要求,适用于棉花和土壤中的氟铃脲残留测定;建议2%氟铃脲乳油在棉花上防治病害,用药次数1次,使用剂量是22.5～30.0 g·a·i·hm-2,在棉花上的安全间隔期可定为10 d。     

Liver histological changes and lipid peroxidation in the amphibian Ambystoma mexicanum induced by sediment elutriates from the Lake Xochimilco

Lacustrine sediments accumulate pollutants that input from the lake watershed and can be released to the water column by sediment resuspension; thus, pollutants can change their bioavailability and exert adverse effects to aquatic biota. Shallow-urban lakes are particularly susceptible to receive pollutants from urban discharges and sediment resuspension. Lake Xochimilco, in Mexico City, an urban-shallow lake, faces multiple problems: urban sprawl, overexploitation of aquifers, drying of springs, discharge of wastewater from treatment plants, and sediment resuspension. The aquatic biota living in this ecosystem is continuously exposed to the release of pollutants from the sediments. We assessed the risk that pollutants released from sediments from Lake Xochimilco, Touristic (TZ) and Agriculture zone (AZ), can exert on a native amphibian species of the lake (Ambystoma mexicanum) through exposure bioassays to sediment elutriates. We evaluate alterations in the amphibian by three approaches: biochemical (level of lipid peroxidation, LPO), cellular (ultrastructure) and the liver histology of A. mexicanum and we compare them with a batch control. Additionally, we assessed heavy metals (Pb, Cd and Hg) in elutriates. Elutriates from TZ showed the highest concentrations of the metals assessed. Organisms exposed to sediment elutriates from either study sites showed higher LPO values than control organisms (p < 0.05). Organisms exposed to elutriates from the TZ showed the most conspicuous damages: hepatic vasodilation of sinusoids, capillaries with erythrocytes, leukocyte infiltration and cytoplasmic vacuolation in hepatocytes. The biological responses assessed reflected the risk that faces A. mexicanum when is exposed for prolonged periods to sediment resuspension in Lake Xochimilco.     

Ecotoxicological Assessment of Sediment, Suspended Matter and Water Samples in the Upper Danube River. A pilot study in search for the causes for the decline of fish catches (12 pp)

Goals, Scope and Background Fish populations, especially those of the grayling (Thymallus thymallus), have declined over the last two decades in the upper Danube River between Sigmaringen and Ulm, despite intensive and continuous stocking and improvement of water quality since the 1970s. Similar problems have been reported for other rivers, e.g. in Switzerland, Great Britain, the United States and Canada. In order to assess if ecotoxicological effects might be related to the decline in fish catch at the upper Danube River, sediment, suspended matter and waste water samples from sewage treatment plants were collected at selected locations and analyzed in a bioanalytical approach using a battery of bioassays. The results of this pilot study will be used to decide if a comprehensive weight-of-evidence study is needed. Methods Freeze-dried sediments and suspended particulate matters were extracted with acetone in a Soxhlet apparatus. Organic pollutants from sewage water were concentrated using XAD-resins. In order to investigate the ecotoxicological burden, the following bioassays were used: (1) neutral red assay with RTL-W1 cells (cytotoxicity), (2) comet assay with RTLW1 cells (genotoxicity), (3) Arthrobacter globiformis dehydrogenase assay (toxicity to bacteria), (4) yeast estrogen screen assay (endocrine disruption), (5) fish egg assay with the zebrafish (Danio rerio; embryo toxicity) and (6) Ames test with TA98 (mutagenicity). Results and Discussion The results of the in vitro tests elucidated a considerable genotoxic, cytotoxic, mutagenic, bacteriotoxic, embryotoxic and estrogenic burden in the upper Danube River, although with a very inhomogeneous distribution of effects. The samples taken from Riedlingen, for example, induced low embryo toxicity, but the second highest 17β-estradiol equivalent concentration (1.8 ng/L). Using the fish egg assay with native sediments, a broad range of embryotoxic effects could be elucidated, with clear-cut dose-response relationships for the embryotoxic effects of contaminated sediments. With native sediments, embryotoxicity was clearly higher than with corresponding pore waters, thus corroborating the view that – at least for fish eggs – the bioavailability of particle-bound lipophilic substances in native sediments is higher than generally assumed. The effect observed most frequently in the fish egg assay was a developmental delay. A comparison of our own results with locations along the rivers Rhine and Neckar demonstrated similar or even higher ranges of ecotoxicological burdens in the Danube River. Conclusions The complex pattern of ecotoxicological effects caused by environmental samples from the Danube River, when assessed in an in vitro biotest battery using both acute and more specific endpoints, showed that integration of different endpoints is essential for appropriate hazard assessment. Overall, the ecotoxicological hazard potential shown has indeed to be considered as one potential reason for the decline in fish catches at the upper Danube River. However, based on the results of this pilot study, it is not possible to elucidate that chemically induced alterations are responsible for the fish decline. Recommendations and Perspective . In order to confirm the ecological relevance of the in vitro results for the situation in the field and especially for the decline of the grayling and other fishes, further integrated investigations are required. For linking the weight of evidence obtained by in vitro assays and fish population investigations, the application of additional, more specific biomarkers (e.g. vitellogenin induction, EROD and micronucleus assay) has been initiated in fish taken from the field as well as in situ investigations.     

坡地赤红壤退化与生态环境重建

广东坡地赤红壤是广东农业生产的重要土壤资源，但是，坡地赤红壤长期以来存在着利用不当和退化问题，严重制约着其生产潜力的发挥。文章总结了坡地赤红壤的基本特性及退化状况，探讨了其生态环境重建的途径。认为坡地赤红壤之退化主要是生态退化、水土流失、物理退化和养分退化。指出坡地赤红壤之生态环境重建主要有如下几种途径：因地制宜，合理利用，恢复与重建土壤．植被生态系统；综合治理水土流失；增加有机质，改善土壤结构，提高土壤肥力；发挥地域优势，大力发展绿色农业，走农业产业化道路。     

Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining

The concept of “peak oil” has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of “peak minerals”, particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline.The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century.