Significance of Sighting Rate in Inferring Extinction and Threat

Abstract:  We are now entering a time of immense environmental upheaval in which, increasingly, experts are required to provide conservation assessments. Quantitative assessment of trends in species' range and abundance is costly, requiring extensive field studies over a long period of time. Unfortunately, many species are only known through a few "chance" sightings or a handful of specimens, and therefore extinction may be even harder to ascertain. Several methods have been proposed for estimating the probability of extinction. However, comparison within and between species is difficult because of variations in sighting rates. We applied a probabilistic method that incorporates sighting rate to the sighting record of Vietnamese slipper orchids ( Paphiopedilum ). The method generates a probability that another sighting will occur given the previous sighting rate and the time since last observation. This allows greater comparability between species discovered at different times. Its predictions were more highly correlated with the World Conservation Union criteria than previous methods. Trends in data collection and the political climate of a country, which affects access to material, are important potential sources of variation that affect sighting rates. A lack of understanding of the process by which data are generated makes inferring extinction from sighting records difficult because extinction status depends on how the sighting rate varies. However, such methods allow rapid conservation prioritization of taxa that are poorly known and would otherwise go unassessed.     

不同种植年限菠萝园土壤肥力衰退的研究

以海南菠萝园为研究对象,通过调查取样分析表明,(1)随种植年限的延长及坡度的提高,土壤侵蚀量增加,菠萝园表层土壤石砾含量增加。(2)同一坡度,菠萝园土壤有机质、全氮、碱解氮和速效钾含量也随种植年限的延长及坡度的提高,侵蚀量增加而下降,尤其是有机质和全氮含量。(3)菠萝园土壤磷素及全钾含量,同一坡度不同年限间没有表现出衰退的趋势。     

Global effects of extreme temperatures on wild bumblebees

Climate plays a key role in shaping population trends and determining the geographic distribution of species because of limits in species’ thermal tolerance. An evaluation of species tolerance to temperature change can therefore help predict their potential spatial shifts and population trends triggered by ongoing global warming. We assessed inter- and intraspecific variations in heat resistance in relation to body mass, local mean temperatures, and evolutionary relationships in 39 bumblebee species, a major group of pollinators in temperate and cold ecosystems, across 3 continents, 6 biomes, and 20 regions (2386 male specimens). Based on experimental bioassays, we measured the time before heat stupor of bumblebee males at a heatwave temperature of 40 °C. Interspecific variability was significant, in contrast to interpopulational variability, which was consistent with heat resistance being a species-specific trait. Moreover, cold-adapted species are much more sensitive to heat stress than temperate and Mediterranean species. Relative to their sensitivity to extreme temperatures, our results help explain recent population declines and range shifts in bumblebees following climate change.     

Evaluating the Predicted Local Extinction of a Once-Common Mouse

Abstract:  In an earlier paper ( Pergams & Nyberg 2001 ) we found that the proportion of the prairie deer mouse ( Peromyscus maniculatus bairdii ), among all local Peromyscus museum specimens collected in the Chicago region, had significantly declined over time. This proportion changed from about 50% before 1900 to <10% in the last 25 years. Based on this proportion a regression model predicted the local extinction of the prairie deer mouse in 2009. To evaluate that prediction, we estimated current deer mouse abundance by live trapping small mammals at 15 preserves in Cook and Lake counties, Illinois (USA) at which prairie deer mice had previously been caught or that still contained their preferred open habitat. In 1900 trap nights, 477 mammals were caught, including 251 white-footed mice ( P. leucopus ), but only one prairie deer mouse. The observed proportion of Peromyscus that were prairie deer mice, 0.4%, was even lower than the 4.5% predicted for 2000. Here we also introduce a simple, new community proportions model, which for any given geographic region compares the proportions of species recently caught with the proportions of species in museums. We compared proportions of seven species collected in Cook and Lake counties and examined by Hoffmeister (1989) with proportions of these species that we caught. Ten percent of the museum community was prairie deer mice, but only 0.2% of our catch was. The current local scarcity of the prairie deer mouse is consistent with the regression-based prediction of its eminent local extinction. More conservation attention should be paid to changes in relative abundance of once-common species.     

Measuring the impact of the pet trade on Indonesian birds

The trade in wild animals involves one‐third of the world's bird species and thousands of other vertebrate species. Although a few species are imperiled as a result of the wildlife trade, the lack of field studies makes it difficult to gauge how serious a threat it is to biodiversity. We used data on changes in bird abundances across space and time and information from trapper interviews to evaluate the effects of trapping wild birds for the pet trade in Sumatra, Indonesia. To analyze changes in bird abundance over time, we used data gathered over 14 years of repeated bird surveys in a 900‐ha forest in southern Sumatra. In northern Sumatra, we surveyed birds along a gradient of trapping accessibility, from the edge of roads to 5 km into the forest interior. We interviewed 49 bird trappers in northern Sumatra to learn which species they targeted and how far they went into the forest to trap. We used prices from Sumatran bird markets as a proxy for demand and, therefore, trapping pressure. Market price was a significant predictor of species declines over time in southern Sumatra (e.g., given a market price increase of approximately $50, the log change in abundance per year decreased by 0.06 on average). This result indicates a link between the market‐based pet trade and community‐wide species declines. In northern Sumatra, price and change in abundance were not related to remoteness (distance from the nearest road). However, based on our field surveys, high‐value species were rare or absent across this region. The median maximum distance trappers went into the forest each day was 5.0 km. This suggests that trapping has depleted bird populations across our remoteness gradient. We found that less than half of Sumatra's remaining forests are >5 km from a major road. Our results suggest that trapping for the pet trade threatens birds in Sumatra. Given the popularity of pet birds across Southeast Asia, additional studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and magnitude of the threat posed by the pet trade.     

Rational forest productivity decline

A whole forest optimisation model was employed to examine economic behaviour as it relates to long term, forest productivity decline in the boreal forests of Ontario, Canada. Our productivity investment model(PIM) incorporated a choice between productivity decline as representedby a drop in forest Site Class, and a fee to 'maintain' site productivity. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the point at which these fees exceeded the value of the differential in timber volume between upper and lower site classes. By varying discount rate, 'productivity investment frontiers' were constructed, which highlight the effects of the magnitude in productivity decline, maintenance fees, and harvest flow constraints upon the occurrence and schedule of productivity declines. In presenting this simple approach to exploring the effects of economic choice upon forest productivity decline, the phenomena of 'natural capital divestment' within forestry is described.     

The effect of summer drought on the predictability of local extinctions in a butterfly metapopulation

The ecological impacts of extreme climatic events on population dynamics and community composition are profound and predominantly negative. Using extensive data of an ecological model system, we tested whether predictions from ecological models remain robust when environmental conditions are outside the bounds of observation. We observed a 10-fold demographic decline of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation on the Åland islands, Finland in the summer of 2018 and used climatic and satellite data to demonstrate that this year was an anomaly with low climatic water balance values and low vegetation productivity indices across Åland. Population growth rates were strongly associated with spatiotemporal variation in climatic water balance. Covariates shown previously to affect the extinction probability of local populations in this metapopulation were less informative when populations were exposed to severe drought during the summer months. Our results highlight the unpredictable responses of natural populations to extreme climatic events.     

Ozone and/or Water Stresses Could have Influenced the Betula ermanii Cham. Forest Decline Observed at Oku-Nikko, Japan

A serious forest decline of Betula ermanii Cham. has been observed at Mt. Mae-Shirane, Oku-Nikko, Japan, where high ozone (O₃) concentration and severe water deficiency have been measured. In order to consider the possibility whether O₃ and/or water stresses could have been the causes of the forest decline of B. ermanii, plant growth experiments were conducted in environment-controlled growth cabinets. Two-year-old seedlings of B. ermanii were exposed to either charcoal-filtered air (O₃ concentration <5 ppb) or 50 ppb O₃ (daily average, ranging between 20–100 ppb) for 123 days at 20.0/12.5 ± 1.0°C (day/night) and 70/80 ± 7% relative humidity (day/night). Simultaneously, seedlings were treated with three watering regime: 1.0 < pF < 1.8 (no water stress), 1.8 < pF < 2.5 (mild water stress) or 2.5 < pF < 3.0 (severe water stress). O₃ exposure significantly reduced the dry weights of leaf, root and the whole plant, while water stress significantly reduced the dry weights of each organ and the whole plant. Significant reductions of net photosynthesis, transpiration and stomatal conductance were also observed under O₃ and/or water deficiency treatments, while contents of RuBP carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco), chlorophyll _a+b and some essential nutrient elements (N, P, K, Mg and Ca) were not markedly changed. It was suggested that the decrease in net photosynthetic rate induced mainly by stomatal closure was the major cause of the growth reduction under O₃ and/or water stresses. No significant interactions between O₃ and water stresses were observed in terms of the depression of dry matter production, which suggested that simultaneous stress treatments of O₃ exposure and water deficiency could affect the tree growth of B. ermanii additively.     

挥发性有机物气体污染源监测中直接采样法的评价

挥发性有机物气体污染源监测中 ,采样与样品的保存是极其关键的环节 ,文中评价了两种材质的塑料采样袋对样品保存的影响 ,并与玻璃针筒进行比较 ,讨论了塑料袋和玻璃针筒采样中导致样品浓度衰减的主要因素     

Developments in amphibian captive breeding and reintroduction programs

Captive breeding and reintroduction remain high profile but controversial conservation interventions. It is important to understand how such programs develop and respond to strategic conservation initiatives. We analyzed the contribution to conservation made by amphibian captive breeding and reintroduction since the launch of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Amphibian Conservation Action Plan (ACAP) in 2007. We assembled data on amphibian captive breeding and reintroduction from a variety of sources including the Amphibian Ark database and the IUCN Red List. We also carried out systematic searches of Web of Science, JSTOR, and Google Scholar for relevant literature. Relative to data collected from 1966 to 2006, the number of species involved in captive breeding and reintroduction projects increased by 57% in the 7 years since release of the ACAP. However, there have been relatively few new reintroductions over this period; most programs have focused on securing captive‐assurance populations (i.e., species taken into captivity as a precaution against extinctions in the wild) and conservation‐related research. There has been a shift to a broader representation of frogs, salamanders, and caecilians within programs and an increasing emphasis on threatened species. There has been a relative increase of species in programs from Central and South America and the Caribbean, where amphibian biodiversity is high. About half of the programs involve zoos and aquaria with a similar proportion represented in specialist facilities run by governmental or nongovernmental agencies. Despite successful reintroduction often being regarded as the ultimate milestone for such programs, the irreversibility of many current threats to amphibians may make this an impractical goal. Instead, research on captive assurance populations may be needed to develop imaginative solutions to enable amphibians to survive alongside current, emerging, and future threats.