环境规制条件下中国农业全要素生产率增长与分解

采用单元调查评估法对中国农业分省污染排放量进行核算的基础上,应用基于方向性距离函数的Malmquist-Luenberger生产率指数方法,对1978-2008年环境规制条件下省际农业TFP增长及其源泉进行实证分析,将农业增长、资源节约与环境保护纳入到一个统一框架.研究发现:①环境规制条件下农业TFP取得了一定增长,主要由前沿技术进步贡献,环境技术效率也存在一定程度的改善,在时间趋势上大致可以划分为6个阶段;②从资源、环境与增长的统筹兼顾来看,农业TFP及其增长模式地区差异明显,东部地区要优于西部地区,中部地区则可能处于失衡状态;③以三大直辖市为代表的东部省区和西部青海、贵州和宁夏等边远省份直接主导着“农业环境技术创新”;④是否考虑环境污染成本,对农业生产率核算会产生较大影响,并可能导致政策偏误.     

危化品泄漏事件中应急监测的安全防护距离计算与监测布点方案

通过建立大气湍流扩散模型,结合大气、地形条件等环境基本资料和危化品的性质,计算出危化品泄漏突发事件的应急防护范围,为人群撤离和监测布点监控,提供安全保障。     

我国危险化学品企业搬迁方案研究

概要地对我国现有危险化学品企业安全防护距离不足的现状进行分析,提出危险化学品企业搬迁工作实施的基本原则,探讨危险化学品企业搬迁范围的确定、厂址的解决、资金的分配、政策的制定和长效机制的建立等问题。建议搬迁企业在政府的统一规划下,坚持以人为本,坚持安全生产和可持续发展的原则,在搬迁中提高技术含量和社会形象,增强市场竞争力。针对我国危险化学品企业的特点提出了一套搬迁方案和步骤。论文的研究成果将为各地政府指导当地危险化学品企业进行科学规划,对待搬迁的危险化学品企业实现安全有效搬迁及健康发展提供了有益参考。     

立体结构障碍物对甲烷预混火焰传播影响的研究

使用自行设计的火焰加速试验系统,研究了3种立体结构障碍物对管道内预混火焰传播速度和超压的影响。选用长方体、正四棱柱和圆柱,其阻塞比均为40%。结果表明,管道内障碍物对火焰传播的初始阶段起阻碍作用,当火焰越过障碍物后,障碍物加速火焰传播过程。有障碍物时管道内最大火焰传播速度和峰值超压比无障碍物时要大。随着点火距离的增大,管道中最大火焰传播速度和超压先变大后减小。当障碍物位于约6倍管径处时,对管道中火焰传播速度和超压影响最大。点火距离的改变对火焰传播速度的影响大于对管道内超压的影响。     

复杂山区地形水利水电液氨施工泄漏研究

水电工程中液氨泄漏扩散对周围居民的危害很大,疏散区域划分成为重要的防护措施,但在复杂地形条件下确立准确的疏散区域成为难题。为解决这一难题,通过现场调查所得数据,采用大涡模拟方法对泄漏气体扩散进行模拟,分析氨的泄漏扩散在大气中的扩散规律,研究泄漏气体的扩散动力学演化过程及影响范围,计算泄漏事故中不同时间段影响范围,得出时间序列上的爆炸危险区域和有毒气体影响区域,最后总结分析制定安全防护距离的影响因素,为周边居民安全防护策略提供参考。     

基于隶属函数的高速公路安全距离模型研究

为了改善高速公路防追尾安全距离模型,对模型中的驾驶员反应时间进行研究,分析不同车速时驾驶员反应时间对安全距离的影响。驾驶员反应时间受驾龄、应变能力、性别、心理生理状况、车速等多种因素的影响。基于模糊数学中隶属函数的有关理论,利用Matlab软件,在驾驶员反应时间大小允许的范围内,综合考虑各种主要因素,确定驾驶员反应时间。通过具体实例说明该方法的应用,结果证明,应用模糊数学,可以计算出不同的驾驶员,在不同的车速时的反应时间。     

爆破震动安全距离的优化计算

笔者针对爆破震动安全距离的典型计算公式,从参数入手,分析误差产生的原因,认为爆破震动安全距离计算产生误差主要原因有三:①K ,α的类比取值不客观;②现场爆破改变了地质条件;③试验法以点代面。笔者从改善K ,α取值的角度,提出一种较为合理的计算爆破震动安全距离的优化方案,即进行爆破现场监测,将监测数据及时参与K ,α值的计算。这样既避免K ,α的类比取值不客观,又反映出爆破对现场地质条件的改变;而且大量监测数据参与计算避免片面性。据此建立了爆破震动安全距离计算优化模型,并利用VisualBasic语言编写了程序,避免了大量的人工计算。将此模型应用于工程实际,得到了较好的效果     

Flight distance of urban birds, predation, and selection for urban life

Numerous species have adapted to humans, especially invasive species associated with humans in towns and cities. Short flight distances of populations adapted to urban environments reflect changes in behavior and physiology, reflecting phenotypic plasticity or evolution. Here, I tested the hypothesis that the decrease in flight distance to a potential predator (an approaching human) reflected adaptation to urbanization, using a data set of flight distances of 44 common species of European birds in different stages of adaptation to urban environments. Urban populations had consistently shorter flight distances than rural populations of the same species. Variation in relative flight distance of urban populations was predicted by the number of generations since urbanization, as expected by a gradual process of adaptation. Furthermore, species with relatively large populations in urban environments would be an indication of local adaptation to urban environments. Relative flight distance of urban population was shorter for species with large populations in urban compared to rural habitats. Species that had adapted to urban environments as shown by short flight distances were less susceptible to predation by the European sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus than species with relatively long flight distances in urban populations. These findings provide evidence consistent with the hypothesis that recent changes in the tameness of urban birds, as reflected by their relatively short flight distances, is an adaptation to the novel urban environment. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Kullback-Leibler distance-based enhanced detection of incipient anomalies

Accurate and effective anomaly detection and diagnosis of modern engineering systems by monitoring processes ensure reliability and safety of a product while maintaining desired quality. In this paper, an innovative method based on Kullback-Leibler divergence for detecting incipient anomalies in highly correlated multivariate data is presented. We use a partial least square (PLS) method as a modeling framework and a symmetrized Kullback-Leibler distance (KLD) as an anomaly indicator, where it is used to quantify the dissimilarity between current PLS-based residual and reference probability distributions obtained using fault-free data. Furthermore, this paper reports the development of two monitoring charts based on the KLD. The first approach is a KLD-Shewhart chart, where the Shewhart monitoring chart with a three sigma rule is used to monitor the KLD of the response variables residuals from the PLS model. The second approach integrates the KLD statistic into the exponentially weighted moving average monitoring chart. The performance of the PLS-based KLD anomaly-detection methods is illustrated and compared to that of conventional PLS-based anomaly detection methods. Using synthetic data and simulated distillation column data, we demonstrate the greater sensitivity and effectiveness of the developed method over the conventional PLS-based methods, especially when data are highly correlated and small anomalies are of interest. Results indicate that the proposed chart is a very promising KLD-based method because KLD-based charts are, in practice, designed to detect small shifts in process parameters.     

Water quality evaluation of Haihe River with fuzzy similarity measure methods

Fuzzy similarity measures, which are used to judge the closeness of two fuzzy sets, are presented to evaluate the water quality of the Haihe River. Based on the membership functions and coefficient of variation as the weights, four fuzzy similarity measures （including Lattice similarity measure, Hamming similarity measure, Euclidean similarity measure and the max-min similarity measure） are used to classify the 299 samples into the proper water quality standard ranks. The results are compared with the traditional distance discriminant methods. The calculation of two traditional distance discriminant methods （both Euclidean distance and absolute value distance） is also based on the use of coefficients of variation as the weights. Without the Lattice similarity measure, for this method loses some information, the correct assignment of samples classified into the same water quality ranks is 75.92% with the other three similarity measures and two distance discriminant methods. This result shows the reliability of the five methods. Only considering the three similarity measures, there were only 1.01% of the samples that did not classify to the same ranks, while the corresponding ratio of the two distance discriminant methods was 5.69%. The results of leave-one-out cross validation show that more than 88% of the samples are classified to the proper ranks, which demonstrates that the similarity measures are suitable to evaluate the water quality of the Haihe River.