海底隧道用海面积界定方法及宗海图编绘探讨

在了解海底隧道类型的前提下,对可能影响海底隧道用海界定的因素进行筛选,从中选出相对影响最大的海底爆破振动因素进行研究。以大连湾海底隧道的相关数据为例,利用前苏联萨道夫斯基经验公式,计算出大连湾海底隧道的安全保护距离,即海底隧道用海界址外扩距离。最终,按照文中提出的宗海(空间)界址图的编绘方案,绘制出大连湾海底隧道的宗海图。     

准好氧填埋场作业台阶温室气体CO_2的释放通量研究

采用静态箱-气相色谱法测定了河北省某准好氧填埋场作业台阶表面的温室气体CO2释放通量,分析了填埋时期和导气管距离对CO2释放通量的影响。结果表明:导气管附近区域表面的CO2释放量较大,且不同区域的CO2释放通量存在明显差异(最大值和最小值分别278.6和12.5 g/(m2.d);同一区域上午、中午和下午的CO2释放通量差异相对较小,但中午和下午高于上午。同时,填埋4、8、12和16个月区域的CO2平均释放通量分别为56.9,70.0,110.2和47.0 g/(m2.d),即CO2的释放通量随着填埋龄的增加呈现先增加后逐渐降低的趋势,并在填埋12个月达到CO2释放通量的最大值。此外,各填埋区作业台阶表面CO2释放通量随着距离导气管距离的增加呈指数函数递减的趋势。     

某槽罐车爆炸事故原因及救援措施分析

以湖南某地槽罐车倾翻导致的液化气泄漏爆炸事故为例,从爆炸发生条件的角度对事故发展过程进行了定性分析,认为环境温度升高导致压力增大是槽罐车破裂的直接原因,倾翻使罐体强度降低,容积减小是间接原因,可能的引火源为电气或静电火花而非烟头。运用PHAST软件模拟了液化气泄漏形成蒸气云爆炸的过程,利用冲击波超压和热辐射准则得到本次事故安全距离为310 m。研究结论对类似事故的抢险救援和疏散有一定的参考价值。     

一种通用的生命线工程网络事件空间聚类分析算法

网络事件空间聚类分析可发现供水、排水、燃气、电力等生命线工程爆管、漏损事件的高发区域。生命线工程事件由网络边约束,可抽象为网络事件。若不考虑网络拓扑关系,将产生网络事件空间聚类结果与实际分类不符的问题。基于事件网络距离,提出了一种通用的网络事件空间聚类方法,给出了核心概念的形式化定义以及算法描述,可广泛应用于生命线工程事件高发区域的发现,具有较强的实用性。并结合供水管网生命线工程爆管事件高发区域分析实例,给出算法参数的确定原则和范围,验证了所提出的算法的有效性。     

Forced ventilation effect by Air-Fin-Cooler on flammable gas cloud dispersion

This paper is the second installment of a paper published on Process Safety and Environment Protection in 2013, which evaluates the Air-Fin-Cooler (AFC) forced ventilation effect over natural ventilation inside congested LNG process train, i.e., modularized LNG, considering the Air Change per Hour (ACH) using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis. This second paper evaluates the effect of forced ventilation on gas cloud dispersion using CFD in order to evaluate possible design measures, such as safety distance in trains and whether to shut down the AFC in case of releases. The results of this evaluation show that gas cloud accumulation is reduced by AFC induced air flow in the case of shorter separation distances between modules. Based on the results, two design measures are proposed, i.e., keep AFC running during emergency and train orientation against prevailing wind direction.     

Risk assessment of rare events

Rare events often result in large impacts and are hard to predict. Risk analysis of such events is a challenging task because there are few directly relevant data to form a basis for probabilistic risk assessment. Due to the scarcity of data, the probability estimation of a rare event often uses precursor data. Precursor-based methods have been widely used in probability estimation of rare events. However, few attempts have been made to estimate consequences of rare events using their precursors. This paper proposes a holistic precursor-based risk assessment framework for rare events. The Hierarchical Bayesian Approach (HBA) using hyper-priors to represent prior parameters is applied to probability estimation in the proposed framework. Accident precursor data are utilized from an information theory perspective to seek the most informative precursor upon which the consequence of a rare event is estimated. Combining the estimated probability and consequence gives a reasonable assessment of risk. The assessed risk is updated as new information becomes available to produce a dynamic risk profile. The applicability of the methodology is tested through a case study of an offshore blowout accident. The proposed framework provides a rational way to develop the dynamic risk profile of a rare event for its prevention and control.     

Climate change,natural hazards,and risk perception: the role of proximity and personal experience

Understanding public risk perception related to possible consequences of climate change is of paramount importance. Not only does risk perception have an important role in shaping climate policy, it is also central in generating support for initiatives for adaptation and mitigation. In order to influence public knowledge and opinion, there is a need to know more about why people have diverging attitudes and perceptions related to climate change and its possible consequences. By using representative survey data for Norway and multivariate analysis, the authors of this article show that differences in attitudes and perceptions are partially explained by factors such as gender, educational background, and people's political preferences. However, an important factor explaining people's perception of climate change and its possible consequences is their direct personal experience of damage caused by climate-related events such as flooding or landslide. Furthermore, the results show that personal experience of damage has the largest impact on the respondents' belief that there will be more natural-resource hazards locally than in Norway or globally. The results also show that merely living in a more exposed area but not having a personal experience of damage does not affect the respondents' concern towards climate change.     

Preferences and willingness to pay for close to home nature for outdoor recreation in Sweden

In Sweden there is a strong tradition of using nature areas for outdoor recreation. This paper reports on a study which explored preferences and willingness to pay for outdoor recreation close to home (≤100 km away from home and ≤24 hours stay at a recreation site) using the contingent valuation method. The data originated from a mail survey that involved Swedish residents who were randomly selected from a national register. An ordinary least squares regression model was used to account for factors influencing willingness to pay. The results showed that approximately 50% of the respondents used nature areas close to their home for recreation and their average frequency of visits to these areas was 74 times annually. Areas dominated by forests were the most preferred, followed by water. The respondents were willing to pay approximately 7200 SEK (US$1080) annually. Their willingness to pay was influenced by factors such as type of nature area, distance to and time spent at the recreation site and income. The results provide one input to the land use planning process by considering the demand for nature-based outdoor recreation close to home.     

焦作市工业行业的生态效率

以工业城市焦作市为例,选择工业能源消费和污染物(包括废水、固体废物、SO2、烟尘等)排放作为环境负荷,定量分析工业分行业的生态效率及分行业特定环境负荷对总环境负荷的贡献率.结果表明,能源效率最高的行业是黑色金属矿采选业(FMM),为43.19万元·tce-1,贡献率为0.003%;废水排放相关环境效率最高的是交通运输设...     

汶川地震大型高速远程滑坡力学机理及控制因子分析

根据汶川地震典型高速远程滑坡坡体结构特点及坡体对地震动的响应,认为地震波是造成山体变形破坏的原动力,强烈的地震动是触发岩体高位剪出并被抛射的主要原因。滑坡体被抛射后,撞击铲刮坡面形成高速碎屑流作远程运动,其运动距离决定其造成危害的大小,在不考虑地震长持时的情况下,其后续运动距离决定于不同的内部控制因子,统计分析表明:发震断裂只有触发效应以及"上/下盘效应",与灾害规模无关,多半滑坡发生于平均坡度为30°～45°坡体结构,滑坡体运动距离L与其拔河高度H具有很好的相关性,坡体拔河高度越大,滑坡体滑过的区域面积及堆积体积就越大,滑坡运动距离就越远,运动性就越强,造成的灾害也就越大。