基于可拓联系云模型的隧道塌方风险等级评价方法

为准确预测隧道塌方风险等级,基于塌方相关理论和工程实际,建立塌方风险等级评价因子体系,借助云理论中云雾化现象检验采用综合权重方法确定的评价因子权重,利用物元可拓理论与联系云模型实现评价因子定性与定量之间的转换,提出1种基于可拓联系云的隧道塌方风险等级评价方法。计算待评价物元与联系云模型间的综合确定度,结合模糊等级特征值确定塌方风险等级,并引入距离相似性判断风险的演变趋势。研究结果表明:可拓联系云模型评价结果与实际塌方风险等级一致,模型可以较好地适用于隧道塌方风险等级评价。     

Effects of anthropogenic disturbance on primate density at the landscape scale

Accurate estimations of the abundance of threatened animal populations are required for assessment of species’ status and vulnerability and conservation planning. However, density estimation is usually difficult and resource demanding, so researchers often collect data at local scales. However, anthropogenic pressures most often have landscape-level effects, for example, through habitat loss and fragmentation. We applied hierarchical distance sampling (HDS) to transect count data to determine the effect of habitat and anthropogenic factors on the density of 3 arboreal primate species inhabiting 5 distinct tropical forests across a landscape of 19,000 km² in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania. We developed a novel, multiregion extension of HDS that allowed us to model density and detectability jointly across forests without losing site-specific information. For all species, the effect of anthropogenic disturbance on density was overwhelmingly negative among metapopulations: −0.63 Angolan colobus (Colobus angolensis palliatus) (95% Bayesian CI −1.03 to −0.27), −0.54 Udzungwa red colobus (Procolobus gordonorum) (−0.89 to −0.22), and −0.33 Sykes' monkey (Cercopithecus mitis monoides) (−0.63 to −0.07). Some responses to habitat factors were shared, notably the negative effect of elevation and the positive effect of climber coverage. These results are important for conservation science and practice because: the among-populations negative responses to anthropogenic disturbance provides a foundation for development of conservation plans that hold at the landscape scale, which is a comprehensive and cost-efficient approach; the among-species consistency in responses suggests conservation measures may be generalized at the guild level, which is especially relevant given the functional importance of primates in tropical rainforests; and the greater primate densities in areas at low elevation, which are closer to human settlements, point to specific management recommendations, such as the creation of buffer zones and prioritization of areas for protection.     

Landscape connectivity changes analysis for monitoring desertification of Minqin county, China

Landscape connectivity, as an important indicator of regional landscape functional pattern measured by cost–distances model, could both reveal evidence of, and act as an indicator, for desertification. Using Minqin county as a case study, this study was further to test cost–distance connectivity for indicating desertification, and to analyze temporal changes of connectivity in the county from 1977 to 1997. The results further indicate the connectivity interpreted as lower cost–distance and higher risk of desertification. The temporal change analysis of connectivity provides more detail supplement of desertification processes. Landscape connectivity changes in the county had three distinctive phases, the strongest decline of log cost–distance with overwhelming decrease area and decrease amount in the period 1977–1984, and its slight decline with the relative balance between the high decrease amount and high increase amount in the period 1984–1992, then its the slight decline with the relative balance between the low decrease amount and low increase amount in the period 1992–1997. The frequent temporal and spatial transition in source class, grassland, alkali–saline land and irrigated cultivated land caused negative effects on the oasis environment.     

Patterns of Spatial Autocorrelation in Stream Water Chemistry

Geostatistical models are typically based on symmetric straight-line distance, which fails to represent the spatial configuration, connectivity, directionality, and relative position of sites in a stream network. Freshwater ecologists have explored spatial patterns in stream networks using hydrologic distance measures and new geostatistical methodologies have recently been developed that enable directional hydrologic distance measures to be considered. The purpose of this study was to quantify patterns of spatial correlation in stream water chemistry using three distance measures: straight-line distance, symmetric hydrologic distance, and weighted asymmetric hydrologic distance. We used a dataset collected in Maryland, USA to develop both general linear models and geostatistical models (based on the three distance measures) for acid neutralizing capacity, conductivity, pH, nitrate, sulfate, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and dissolved organic carbon. The spatial AICC methodology allowed us to fit the autocorrelation and covariate parameters simultaneously and to select the model with the most support in the data. We used the universal kriging algorithm to generate geostatistical model predictions. We found that spatial correlation exists in stream chemistry data at a relatively coarse scale and that geostatistical models consistently improved the accuracy of model predictions. More than one distance measure performed well for most chemical response variables, but straight-line distance appears to be the most suitable distance measure for regional geostatistical modeling. It may be necessary to develop new survey designs that more fully capture spatial correlation at a variety of scales to improve the use of weighted asymmetric hydrologic distance measures in regional geostatistical models.     

应用稳健马氏距离评价实验室间比对能力考核

基于稳健马氏距离的多元统计算法,综合评价了全国环境监测系统96个实验室4种有机氯农药监测能力考核的结果,从中筛选出25个考核结果存在异常的实验室。将多元统计结果与稳健Z比分数结果进行比较,发现基于稳健马氏距离筛选出的异常实验室其稳健Z比分数结果也存在一定的问题。同时简单介绍了稳健马氏距离及其相关的异常值筛选的算法原理,并详细介绍了其基于R语言的实现过程。     

基于反距权重插值的入海河口水环境研究

对某入海河口在春季和夏季进行2次水体环境因子(TP、TN、COD、Chla、SS)监测,利用Arc Map扩展模块中反距离权重插值模型,对各监测值分别进行插值分析。通过插值结果,对营养盐、Chla、COD和SS在时间和空间上的差异进行探讨,揭示了入海河口水体环境因子在季节差异和流域分布上的独有特点。     

高速铁路安全系统的研究

随着列车速度的大幅度提高 ,必然会引起一系列的空气动力学问题 ,它将影响到列车的运行安全 ,站台旅客及车站工作人员的人身安全。高速列车由于速度快 ,安全问题显得尤为重要 ,高速铁路行车安全的特殊性 ,决定了高速铁路安全保障体系的特殊性。笔者对高速铁路安全系统进行了研究 ,重点讨论高速铁路运行下的人员退避距离标准、安全监测问题及保障体系 ,并提出一些建议     

Copper and cadmium effects on growth and extracellular exudation of the marine toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella: 3D-fluorescence spectroscopy approach

In this study, metal contamination experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of copper and cadmium on the growth of the marine toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella and on the production of dissolved organic matter (Dissolved Organic Carbon: DOC; Fluorescent Dissolved Organic Matter: FDOM). This species was exposed to increasing concentrations of Cu²⁺ (9.93 × 10⁻¹⁰–1.00 × 10⁻⁷ M) or Cd²⁺ (1.30 × 10⁻⁸–4.38 × 10⁻⁷ M), to simulate polluted environments. The drastic effects were observed at pCu²⁺ = 7.96 (Cu²⁺: 1.08 × 10⁻⁸ M) and pCd²⁺ = 7.28 (Cd²⁺: 5.19 × 10⁻⁸ M), where cyst formation occurred. Lower levels of Cu²⁺ (pCu²⁺ > 9.00) and Cd²⁺ (pCd²⁺ > 7.28) had no effect on growth. However, when levels of Cu²⁺ and Cd²⁺ were beyond 10⁻⁷ M, the growth was totally inhibited. The DOC released per cell (DOC/Cell) was different depending on the exposure time and the metal contamination, with higher DOC/Cell values in response to Cu²⁺ and Cd²⁺, comparatively to the control. Samples were also analyzed by 3D-fluorescence spectroscopy, using the Parallel Factor Analysis (PARAFAC) algorithm to characterize the FDOM. The PARAFAC analytical treatment revealed four components (C1, C2, C3 and C4) that could be associated with two contributions: one, related to the biological activity; the other, linked to the decomposition of organic matter. The C1 component combined a tryptophan peak and a characteristic humic substances response, and the C2 component was considered as a tryptophan protein fluorophore. The C3 and C4 components were associated to marine organic matter production.     

油田生产设施环境安全距离理论与案例分析

为保护油田生产设施周围环境及居民人身财产安全,在油田设施和周围不同环境功能区之间设置科学的环境安全距离,是一种经济、有效的环境保护与安全管理措施。文章提出油田生产设施环境安全距离的概念,以及有毒气体井喷泄漏、噪声污染、管线泄漏和火灾爆炸的环境安全距离估算模式,将油田生产设施分为井场、站库和管线三类,提出环境安全距离估算方法。最后以重庆开县"12.23"特大井喷事故为例,对硫化氢毒气井喷泄漏的环境安全距离进行估算,与实际情况相对比后证明估算结果可靠。     

钢筋混凝土对大炸高聚能射流的防护研究

对金属射流的侵彻防护进行研究是研究侵彻问题的重要组成部分。在弹药的销毁工作中,需要在可控炸高下对射流进行防护。通过分析大炸高情况下聚能射流运动和侵彻的特点,对钢筋混凝土防护墙如何有效地防护聚能射流侵彻进行了分析并提出了相应对策。