Mechanisms and impacts of an incentive-based conservation program with evidence from a randomized control trial

Conservation science needs more high-quality impact evaluations, especially ones that explore mechanisms of success or failure. Randomized control trials (RCTs) provide particularly robust evidence of the effectiveness of interventions (although they have been criticized as reductionist and unable to provide insights into mechanisms), but there have been few such experiments investigating conservation at the landscape scale. We explored the impact of Watershared, an incentive-based conservation program in the Bolivian Andes, with one of the few RCTs of landscape-scale conservation in existence. There is strong interest in such incentive-based conservation approaches as some argue they can avoid negative social impacts sometimes associated with protected areas. We focused on social and environmental outcomes based on responses from a household survey in 129 communities randomly allocated to control or treatment (conducted both at the baseline in 2010 and repeated in 2015–2016). We controlled for incomplete program uptake by combining standard RCT analysis with matching methods and investigated mechanisms by exploring intermediate and ultimate outcomes according to the underlying theory of change. Previous analyses, focused on single biophysical outcomes, showed that over its first 5 years Watershared did not slow deforestation or improve water quality at the landscape scale. We found that Watershared influenced some outcomes measured using the survey, but the effects were complex, and some were unexpected. We thus demonstrated how RCTs can provide insights into the pathways of impact, as well as whether an intervention has impact. This paper, one of the first registered reports in conservation science, demonstrates how preregistration can help make complex research designs more transparent, avoid cherry picking, and reduce publication bias.     

加大行政奖惩力度是中国环境绩效改善的主要原因吗?

"十一五"、"十二五"规划时期,中国单位GDP能耗、SO_2排放总量、COD排放总量等节能减排指标均实现了国家规划目标,这与"十五"计划三项指标均未完成形成鲜明对比。现有研究对此的解释存在宏观和微观层面上的不一致。其重要原因在于现有研究将环境绩效改善的原因完全归于行政奖惩所体现的正式制度的作用,而忽视了非正式制度对节能减排绩效的积极影响。本文建构了以包含正式激励和非正式激励的二元委托代理激励模型为基础的分析框架,利用基于717名不同级别官员的问卷数据,采用结构方程方法对上述模型进行了检验。实证结果表明,与约束性指标相关的正式制度中规定的11项奖惩措施所产生的激励对官员的环境治理行为力度并没有显著影响,而体现为顺应中央政府导向和上级领导注意力所代表的非正式制度激励对官员环境治理行为力度产生了显著影响。非正式制度激励对环境治理行为力度的影响存在两条路径。在第一条路径中,官员压力是中介变量,即非正式制度产生对官员压力的影响,官员压力又进一步影响官员环境治理行为。在这一路径中,晋升偏好、服从偏好为正向调节变量,正式奖惩的执行严格程度为负向调节变量。这一路径表明,官员晋升偏好越强、正式奖惩执行严格程度越弱,非正式制度激励对地方官员压力的影响越大;官员服从上级偏好程度越强,官员压力对环境治理行为力度的影响越大。在第二条路径中,非正式制度激励被认为直接影响环境治理行为力度,服务偏好是正向调节变量。这一路径表明,地方官员为人民服务的偏好越强,非正式激励对环境治理行为的影响越大。本文的研究发现调和了环境政策执行领域的理论冲突,为深化对中国"压力型"体制的理解提供实证证据。     

Informal mining in Mongolia: livelihood change and continuity in the rangelands

Change has been the leitmotif of Mongolia in recent years as the country rides on the back of a mining boom, but enormous upheavals tear apart Mongolian economic, political and social fabrics. Yet, Mongolian imagination continues to be imbued with the idea of nomadic herders, the quintessential pasture and rangeland dwellers of the steppes. The conflicting visions raise the question: “How is the livelihood of Mongolia’s nomadic herders responding to the diverse changes ushered in by the post-socialist economic reforms?” This paper investigates this question in the context of the growing artisanal and small-scale mining, which is described as informal mining, and argues that the Mongolian nomads are continually (re)adjusting their livelihoods through informal mining to cope with the variety of transitions triggered off by processes put in place by state policies. It argues that the nomadic herders are not only responding to climate change or poverty, but are also stepping up to seek a share of the mineral resource wealth that the state is promising to the international investors. The aim of the paper is to offer an alternative interpretation of the commodity rush by erstwhile rural-based nomadic herders of Mongolia, and to link their involvement in informal mining with global debates of political economy.     

Communication Practices and Political Engagement with Climate Change: A Research Agenda

In this article, we call for a refocusing of research on citizens’ political engagement with climate change. In doing so, we argue that communication practices not only help create the conditions for political engagement but they also comprise the modes of such engagement. Our argument proceeds in four steps. First, we review the literature on public engagement with climate change, concluding that there is a lack of attention to issues regarding the political. Consequently, we make the case for a refocusing of research on political engagement. Second, we explain how the notion of political subjectivity helps us to understand the relation between communication practices and engagement with the politics of climate change. Third, we discuss examples of dominant communication practices that constrain citizen political engagement by depoliticizing climate change, and alternative communication practices that have the potential to politicize. We end by outlining the many research questions that relate to the study of political engagement with climate change.     

Untangling the proximate causes and underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Myanmar

Political transitions often trigger substantial environmental changes. In particular, deforestation can result from the complex interplay among the components of a system—actors, institutions, and existing policies—adapting to new opportunities. A dynamic conceptual map of system components is particularly useful for systems in which multiple actors, each with different worldviews and motivations, may be simultaneously trying to alter different facets of the system, unaware of the impacts on other components. In Myanmar, a global biodiversity hotspot with the largest forest area in mainland Southeast Asia, ongoing political and economic reforms are likely to change the dynamics of deforestation drivers. A fundamental conceptual map of these dynamics is therefore a prerequisite for interventions to reduce deforestation. We used a system‐dynamics approach and causal‐network analysis to determine the proximate causes and underlying drivers of forest loss and degradation in Myanmar from 1995 to 2016 and to articulate the linkages among them. Proximate causes included infrastructure development, timber extraction, and agricultural expansion. These were stimulated primarily by formal agricultural, logging, mining, and hydropower concessions and economic investment and social issues relating to civil war and land tenure. Reform of land laws, the link between natural resource extraction and civil war, and the allocation of agricultural concessions will influence the extent of future forest loss and degradation in Myanmar. The causal‐network analysis identified priority areas for policy interventions, for example, creating a public registry of land‐concession holders to deter corruption in concession allocation. We recommend application of this analytical approach to other countries, particularly those undergoing political transition, to inform policy interventions to reduce forest loss and degradation.     

稻秆负荷与pH对稻秆厌氧发酵产酸系统启动过程的影响

为探讨稻秆负荷（即稻秆VS/污泥VSS）与发酵pH对稻秆厌氧发酵产酸系统启动过程产挥发性脂肪酸（VFAs）效果的影响,利用厌氧搅拌罐反应系统考察在不同的稻秆负荷（0.556、0.945、1.334和1.724 g/g）和不同的发酵pH（8.0、9.0和10.0）启动运行条件下的产酸性能,并分析了系统启动过程产酸与稻秆主要成分降解之间的关系。实验结果表明,VFAs浓度随稻秆负荷提高而增大,随发酵pH的升高而降低;发酵18 d时,发酵pH为9.0时,稻秆负荷1.334 g/g的产酸效果最好,VFAs浓度与稻秆产酸量分别为4 385.10 mg/L和2.19 gVFAs/g稻秆,此时半纤维素、纤维素和酸性洗涤木质素降解率分别为32.69%、22.53%和6.40%;稻秆负荷为0.945 g/g条件下,VFAs浓度在pH为8.0时达到最高值4 409.51 mg/L,此时稻秆降解量也最多,半纤维素、纤维素和酸性洗涤木质素降解率分别为28.60%、47.32%和22.69%。研究表明,稻秆负荷与发酵pH通过影响稻秆半纤维素、纤维素和木质素的降解影响稻秆厌氧发酵产酸的进程和效果。     

Experimental and modeling study of de novo formation of PCDD/PCDF on MSW fly ash

The effect of sulfur dioxide （SO2） on the formation of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins （PCDDs） and polychlorinated dibenzofurans （PCDFs） has been studied in an entrained-flow reactor （EFR） under simulated waste combustion conditions. A chlorination model based on conditional probability was employed to evaluate the homologue patterns of PCDDs and PCDFs. Results revealed that the presence of SO2 did not alter the formation pathway although SO2 suppressed PCDD/F formation. The prediction model of PCDF showed good agreement with the experimental data （R--0.95）, whereas the prediction for PCDDs did not correlate well with the experimental data. This may be explained because potential chlorination pathways play a significant role in PCDF formation, whereas PCDDs are mainly formed through condensation reactions. Furthermore, the result indicated that the steric hindrance during formation has more effects on PCDD than on PCDF due to the symmetric molecular structures of PCDDs.     

环境规制对资源型城市产业结构转型的影响

基于中国2003~2016年115个资源型城市,利用固定效应模型和中介效应模型,研究环境规制对产业结构转型的影响及绿色技术创新在这一过程中所发挥的中介作用.结果表明,从整体看,正式与非正式环境规制均能显著地促进产业结构向合理化、高级化转型,且非正式环境规制的促进作用更为明显.此外,绿色技术创新在环境规制促进产业结构转型的效应中发挥着中介作用.经过一系列稳健性检验后结论仍然成立.基于城市成长周期角度,正式与非正式环境规制对产业结构合理化、高级化的作用随城市成长周期不同而表现出显著差异,同时绿色技术创新在环境规制对产业结构转型过程中发挥的中介作用随城市成长周期不同也明显不一致;基于时期异质性角度,2013~2016年正式与非正式环境规制对产业结构合理化、高级化作用相较于2003~2012年均有所提升,且绿色技术创新在环境规制促进产业结构高级化中存在中介效应.     

Ecological metrics of biomass removed by three methods of purse-seine fishing for tunas in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

An ecosystem approach to fisheries management is a widely recognized goal, but describing and measuring the effects of a fishery on an ecosystem is difficult. Ecological information on the entire catch (all animals removed, whether retained or discarded) of both species targeted by the fishery and nontarget species (i.e., bycatch) is required. We used data from the well-documented purse-seine fishery for tunas (Thunnus albacares, T. obesus, and Katsuwonus pelamis) in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to examine the fishery's ecological effects. Purse-seine fishing in the eastern tropical Pacific is conducted in 3 ways that differ in the amount and composition of target species and bycatch. The choice of method depends on whether the tunas are swimming alone (unassociated sets), associated with dolphins (dolphin sets), or associated with floating objects (floating-object sets). Among the fishing methods, we compared catch on the basis of weight, number of individuals, trophic level, replacement time, and diversity. Floating-object sets removed 2-3 times as much biomass as the other 2 methods, depending on how removal was measured. Results of previous studies suggest the ecological effects of floating-object sets are thousands of times greater than the effects of other methods, but these results were derived from only numbers of discarded animals. Management of the fishery has been driven to a substantial extent by a focus on reducing bycatch, although discards are currently 4.8% of total catch by weight, compared with global averages of 7.5% for tuna longline fishing and 30.0% for midwater trawling. An ecosystem approach to fisheries management requires that ecological effects of fishing on all animals removed by a fishery, not just bycatch or discarded catch, be measured with a variety of metrics.