Coupling urban 3-D information and circuit theory to advance the development of urban ecological networks

Ongoing, rapid urban growth accompanied by habitat fragmentation and loss challenges biodiversity conservation and leads to decreases in ecosystem services. Application of the concept of ecological networks in the preservation and restoration of connections among isolated patches of natural areas is a powerful conservation strategy. However, previous approaches often failed to objectively consider the impacts of complex 3-D city environments on ecological niches. We used airborne lidar-derived information on the 3-D structure of the built environment and vegetation and detailed land use and cover data to characterize habitat quality, niche diversity, and human disturbance and to predict habitat connectivity among 38 identified habitat core areas (HCAs) in Nanjing, China. We used circuit theory and Linkage Mapper to create a landscape resistance layer, simulate habitat connectivity, and identify and prioritize important corridors. We mapped 64 links by using current flow centrality to evaluate each HCA's contribution and the links that facilitate intact connectivity. Values were highest for HCA links located in the west, south, and northeast of the study area, where natural forests with complex 3-D structures predominate. Two smaller HCA areas had high centrality scores relative to their extents, which means they could act as important stepping stones in connectivity planning. The mapped pinch-point regions had narrow and fragile links among the HCAs, suggesting they require special protection. The barriers with the highest impact scores were mainly located at the HCA connections to Purple Mountain and, based on these high scores, are more likely to indicate important locations that can be restored to improve potential connections. Our novel framework allowed us to sufficiently convey spatially explicit information to identify targets for habitat restoration and potential pathways for species movement and dispersal. Such information is critical for assessing existing or potential habitats and corridors and developing strategic plans to balance habitat conservation and other land uses based on scientifically informed connectivity planning and implementation.     

Effectiveness of amphibians as biodiversity surrogates in pond conservation

Amphibian decline has led to worldwide conservation efforts, including the identification and designation of sites for their protection. These sites could also play an important role in the conservation of other freshwater taxa. In 89 ponds in Switzerland, we assessed the effectiveness of amphibians as a surrogate for 4 taxonomic groups that occur in the same freshwater ecosystems as amphibians: dragonflies, aquatic beetles, aquatic gastropods, and aquatic plants. The ponds were all of high value for amphibian conservation. Cross‐taxon correlations were tested for species richness and conservation value, and Mantel tests were used to investigate community congruence. Species richness, conservation value, and community composition of amphibians were weakly congruent with these measures for the other taxonomic groups. Paired comparisons for the 5 groups considered showed that for each metric, amphibians had the lowest degree of congruence. Our results imply that site designation for amphibian conservation will not necessarily provide protection for freshwater biodiversity as a whole. To provide adequate protection for freshwater species, we recommend other taxonomic groups be considered in addition to amphibians in the prioritization and site designation process.     

Importance of dispersal routes that minimize open‐ocean movement to the genetic structure of island populations

Islands present a unique scenario in conservation biology, offering refuge yet imposing limitations on insular populations. The Kimberley region of northwestern Australia has more than 2500 islands that have recently come into focus as substantial conservation resources. It is therefore of great interest for managers to understand the driving forces of genetic structure of species within these island archipelagos. We used the ubiquitous bar‐shouldered skink (Ctenotus inornatus) as a model species to represent the influence of landscape factors on genetic structure across the Kimberley islands. On 41 islands and 4 mainland locations in a remote area of Australia, we genotyped individuals across 18 nuclear (microsatellite) markers. Measures of genetic differentiation and diversity were used in two complementary analyses. We used circuit theory and Mantel tests to examine the influence of the landscape matrix on population connectivity and linear regression and model selection based on Akaike's information criterion to investigate landscape controls on genetic diversity. Genetic differentiation between islands was best predicted with circuit‐theory models that accounted for the large difference in resistance to dispersal between land and ocean. In contrast, straight‐line distances were unrelated to either resistance distances or genetic differentiation. Instead, connectivity was determined by island‐hopping routes that allow organisms to minimize the distance of difficult ocean passages. Island populations of C. inornatus retained varying degrees of genetic diversity (N_A = 1.83 – 7.39), but it was greatest on islands closer to the mainland, in terms of resistance‐distance units. In contrast, genetic diversity was unrelated to island size. Our results highlight the potential for islands to contribute to both theoretical and applied conservation, provide strong evidence of the driving forces of population structure within undisturbed landscapes, and identify the islands most valuable for conservation based on their contributions to gene flow and genetic diversity.     

Dynamics of a low‐density tiger population in Southeast Asia in the context of improved law enforcement

Recovering small populations of threatened species is an important global conservation strategy. Monitoring the anticipated recovery, however, often relies on uncertain abundance indices rather than on rigorous demographic estimates. To counter the severe threat from poaching of wild tigers (Panthera tigris), the Government of Thailand established an intensive patrolling system in 2005 to protect and recover its largest source population in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary. Concurrently, we assessed the dynamics of this tiger population over the next 8 years with rigorous photographic capture‐recapture methods. From 2006 to 2012, we sampled across 624–1026 km² with 137–200 camera traps. Cameras deployed for 21,359 trap days yielded photographic records of 90 distinct individuals. We used closed model Bayesian spatial capture‐recapture methods to estimate tiger abundances annually. Abundance estimates were integrated with likelihood‐based open model analyses to estimate rates of annual and overall rates of survival, recruitment, and changes in abundance. Estimates of demographic parameters fluctuated widely: annual density ranged from 1.25 to 2.01 tigers/100 km², abundance from 35 to 58 tigers, survival from 79.6% to 95.5%, and annual recruitment from 0 to 25 tigers. The number of distinct individuals photographed demonstrates the value of photographic capture–recapture methods for assessments of population dynamics in rare and elusive species that are identifiable from natural markings. Possibly because of poaching pressure, overall tiger densities at Huai Kha Khaeng were 82–90% lower than in ecologically comparable sites in India. However, intensified patrolling after 2006 appeared to reduce poaching and was correlated with marginal improvement in tiger survival and recruitment. Our results suggest that population recovery of low‐density tiger populations may be slower than anticipated by current global strategies aimed at doubling the number of wild tigers in a decade.     

Relation between extinction and assisted colonization of plants in the arctic‐alpine and boreal regions

Assisted colonization of vascular plants is considered by many ecologists an important tool to preserve biodiversity threatened by climate change. I argue that assisted colonization may have negative consequences in arctic‐alpine and boreal regions. The observed slow movement of plants toward the north has been an argument for assisted colonization. However, these range shifts may be slow because for many plants microclimatic warming (ignored by advocates of assisted colonization) has been smaller than macroclimatic warming. Arctic‐alpine and boreal plants may have limited possibilities to disperse farther north or to higher elevations. I suggest that arctic‐alpine species are more likely to be driven to extinction because of competitive exclusion by southern species than by increasing temperatures. If so, the future existence of arctic‐alpine and boreal flora may depend on delaying or preventing the migration of plants toward the north to allow northern species to evolve to survive in a warmer climate. In the arctic‐alpine region, preventing the dispersal of trees and shrubs may be the most important method to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. The purported conservation benefits of assisted colonization should not be used to promote the migration of invasive species by forestry.     

Integrating archaeology and ancient DNA analysis to address invasive species colonization in the Gulf of Alaska

The intentional and unintentional movement of plants and animals by humans has transformed ecosystems and landscapes globally. Assessing when and how a species was introduced are central to managing these transformed landscapes, particularly in island environments. In the Gulf of Alaska, there is considerable interest in the history of mammal introductions and rehabilitating Gulf of Alaska island environments by eradicating mammals classified as invasive species. The Arctic ground squirrel (Urocitellus parryii) is of concern because it affects vegetation and seabirds on Gulf of Alaska islands. This animal is assumed to have been introduced by historic settlers; however, ground squirrel remains in the prehistoric archaeological record of Chirikof Island, Alaska, challenge this timeline and suggest they colonized the islands long ago. We used 3 lines of evidence to address this problem: direct radiocarbon dating of archaeological squirrel remains; evidence of prehistoric human use of squirrels; and ancient DNA analysis of dated squirrel remains. Chirikof squirrels dated to at least 2000 years ago, and cut marks on squirrel bones suggested prehistoric use by people. Ancient squirrels also shared a mitochondrial haplotype with modern Chirikof squirrels. These results suggest that squirrels have been on Chirikof longer than previously assumed and that the current population of squirrels is closely related to the ancient population. Thus, it appears ground squirrels are not a recent, human‐mediated introduction and may have colonized the island via a natural dispersal event or an ancient human translocation.     

Golden Eagle fatalities and the continental‐scale consequences of local wind‐energy generation

Renewable energy production is expanding rapidly despite mostly unknown environmental effects on wildlife and habitats. We used genetic and stable isotope data collected from Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) killed at the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA) in California in demographic models to test hypotheses about the geographic extent and demographic consequences of fatalities caused by renewable energy facilities. Geospatial analyses of δ²H values obtained from feathers showed that ≥25% of these APWRA‐killed eagles were recent immigrants to the population, most from long distances away (>100 km). Data from nuclear genes indicated this subset of immigrant eagles was genetically similar to birds identified as locals from the δ²H data. Demographic models implied that in the face of this mortality, the apparent stability of the local Golden Eagle population was maintained by continental‐scale immigration. These analyses demonstrate that ecosystem management decisions concerning the effects of local‐scale renewable energy can have continental‐scale consequences.     

Mapping epistemic cultures and learning potential of participants in citizen science projects

The ever‐widening scope and range of global change and interconnected systemic risks arising from people–environment relationships (social‐ecological risks) appears to be increasing concern among, and involvement of, citizens in an increasingly diversified number of citizen science projects responding to these risks. We examined the relationship between epistemic cultures in citizen science projects and learning potential related to matters of concern. We then developed a typology of purposes and a citizen science epistemic‐cultures heuristic and mapped 56 projects in southern Africa using this framework. The purpose typology represents the range of knowledge‐production purposes, ranging from laboratory science to social learning, whereas the epistemic‐cultures typology is a relational representation of scientist and citizen participation and their approach to knowledge production. Results showed an iterative relationship between matters of fact and matters of concern across the projects; the nexus of citizens’ engagement in knowledge‐production activities varied. The knowledge‐production purposes informed and shaped the epistemic cultures of all the sampled citizen science projects, which in turn influenced the potential for learning within each project. Through a historical review of 3 phases in a long‐term river health‐monitoring project, we found that it is possible to evolve the learning curve of citizen science projects. This evolution involved the development of scientific water monitoring tools, the parallel development of pedagogic practices supporting monitoring activities, and situated engagement around matters of concern within social activism leading to learning‐led change. We conclude that such evolutionary processes serve to increase potential for learning and are necessary if citizen science is to contribute to wider restructuring of the epistemic culture of science under conditions of expanding social‐ecological risk.     

Understanding public perceptions of risk regarding outdoor pet cats to inform conservation action

Free‐ranging domestic cats (Felis catus) incur and impose risks on ecosystems and represent a complex issue of critical importance to biodiversity conservation and cat and human health globally. Prior social science research on this topic is limited and has emphasized feral cats even though owned cats often comprise a large proportion of the outdoor cat population, particularly in urban areas. To address this gap, we examined public risk perceptions and attitudes toward outdoor pet cats across varying levels of urbanization, including along the wildland–urban interface, in Colorado (U.S.A.), through a mail survey of 1397 residents. Residents did not view all types of risks uniformly. They viewed risks of cat predation on wildlife and carnivore predation on cats as more likely than disease‐related risks. Additionally, risk perceptions were related to attitudes, prior experiences with cats and cat–wildlife interactions, and cat‐owner behavior. Our findings suggest that changes in risk perceptions may result in behavior change. Therefore, knowledge of cat‐related risk perceptions and attitudes could be used to develop communication programs aimed at promoting risk‐aversive behaviors among cat owners and cat‐management strategies that are acceptable to the public and that directly advance the conservation of native species.     

On Uncertain Sightings and Inference about Extinction

The extinction of many species can only be inferred from the record of sightings of individuals. Solow et al. (2012, Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker. Conservation Biology 26: 180–184) describe a Bayesian approach to such inference and apply it to a sighting record of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). A feature of this sighting record is that all uncertain sightings occurred after the most recent certain sighting. However, this appears to be an artifact. We extended this earlier work in 2 ways. First, we allowed for overlap in time between certain and uncertain sightings. Second, we considered 2 plausible statistical models of a sighting record. In one of these models, certain and uncertain sightings that are valid arise from the same process whereas in the other they arise from independent processes. We applied both models to the case of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker. The result from the first model did not favor extinction, whereas the result for the second model did. This underscores the importance, in applying tests for extinction, of understanding what could be called the natural history of the sighting record. Sobre Avistamientos Inciertos e Inferencia de la Extinción