Towards a Tipping Point in Responding to Change: Rising Costs,Fewer Options for Arctic and Global Societies

Climate change incurs costs, but government adaptation budgets are limited. Beyond a certain point, individuals must bear the costs or adapt to new circumstances, creating political-economic tipping points that we explore in three examples. First, many Alaska Native villages are threatened by erosion, but relocation is expensive. To date, critically threatened villages have not yet been relocated, suggesting that we may already have reached a political-economic tipping point. Second, forest fires shape landscape and ecological characteristics in interior Alaska. Climate-driven changes in fire regime require increased fire-fighting resources to maintain current patterns of vegetation and land use, but these resources appear to be less and less available, indicating an approaching tipping point. Third, rapid sea level rise, for example from accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet, will create a choice between protection and abandonment for coastal regions throughout the world, a potential global tipping point comparable to those now faced by Arctic communities. The examples illustrate the basic idea that if costs of response increase more quickly than available resources, then society has fewer and fewer options as time passes.     

Mapping Human Dimensions of Climate Change Research in the Canadian Arctic

This study maps current understanding and research trends on the human dimensions of climate change (HDCC) in the eastern and central Canadian Arctic. Developing a systematic literature review methodology, 117 peer reviewed articles are identified and examined using quantitative and qualitative methods. The research highlights the rapid expansion of HDCC studies over the last decade. Early scholarship was dominated by work documenting Inuit observations of climate change, with research employing vulnerability concepts and terminology now common. Adaptation studies which seek to identify and evaluate opportunities to reduce vulnerability to climate change and take advantage of new opportunities remain in their infancy. Over the last 5 years there has been an increase social science-led research, with many studies employing key principles of community-based research. We currently have baseline understanding of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the region, but key gaps are evident. Future research needs to target significant geographic disparities in understanding, consider risks and opportunities posed by climate change outside of the subsistence hunting sector, complement case study research with regional analyses, and focus on identifying and characterizing sustainable and feasible adaptation interventions.     

A field survey—Staroe lake suffering from atmospheric deposition in the region north of the Arctic Circle

Background, aim, and scope  The Arctic holds large stores of minerals, and extracted materials are provided to the world’s economy; in this sense, the Arctic issue associated with mining is not local but global. In a part of the Arctic region (the Kola Peninsula, 66–70° N and 28–41° E), metal levels are generally elevated in the lake sediment. There is a question as to what results in elevated metal levels—a natural process (naturally abundant minerals) or an anthropogenic process (mining and metallurgy). In terms of solving this question, Staroe lake located on the Kola Peninsula was researched as a case study. Materials and methods  The following parameters were determined in relation with Staroe lake: (1) the current quality of the lake’s water—each 1,000-ml sample was collected at a surface point and a deep point (near the bottom layer), and the collected samples were directly analyzed after filtration; (2) atmospheric bulk deposition—bulk deposition was collected using a set of three rainwater samplers near the lake. In addition, bulk deposition was collected in a background site (250 km to the southwest of the smelter complex) as a reference; and (3) sediment profile (plus principal component analysis)—lake-bottom sediment was collected by an open-gravimetric column sampler equipped with an automatic diaphragm. After collection, the sample columns were cut at a 1-cm interval for analysis. Eigenvalues and variances by factor were calculated from the correlation coefficients. Results  The obtained data show that (1) naturally poor elements (Cu, Ni, Si, and SO₄ ²⁻) dominantly influence the lake’s water quality; (2) they are transported from the anthropogenic sources to the study lake through the atmospheric pathway; (3) mainly the contents of Cu, Ni, Sr, and Ca have influenced the sediment quality since the 1950s, corresponding to the industrial movement; and (4) Cu, Ni, and Sr originate from an anthropogenic source (smelter), and Ca originates from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Discussion  As compared with the Russian standard (San Pin 2.1.980–00), the contents of NO₃ ⁻ (50.3 ± 0.1 mg l⁻¹) and particulates (2.3 ± 0.2 mg l⁻¹) exceeded the standard levels (0.7 mg l⁻¹ NO₃ ⁻ and 45 mg l⁻¹ particulates); Staroe lake may be slightly contaminated. However, the contamination factor (comparison with the background data) implies that Staroe lake is considerably contaminated. There is a strong possibility that fine overburden detritus (<0.1 mm diameter) may be transported from an open pit to the study lake by natural forces such as wind. Although it is difficult to suppose that one factor dominantly affects the sediment quality, it follows from a factor analysis that factors 1 and 2 account for about 70% of the total variance: Factor 1 is the most dominant, and factor 2 is the second most dominant in the variability of sediment quality. It is considered that Cu, Sr, and Ni in factor 1 originate from anthropogenic sources because they are poor in sediment rocks. Conclusions  The field survey conducted in Staroe lake can give the following answers to the key objectives: (1) The present water quality is affected by Cu, Ni, Si, and SO₄ ²⁻ in light of the contamination factor, and these elements originate from anthropogenic sources (the smelter and the open pit) and are transported to the lake through the atmospheric pathway; (2) the sediment profile and statistic analysis show that the lake quality has been influenced by deposition of metals since the 1950s; and (3) Cu, Ni, Sr, and Ca have influenced the sediment quality in light of the most dominant factor—Cu, Ni, and Sr originate from an anthropogenic source, whereas Ca comes from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Recommendations and perspectives  The presented lake survey shows that the dispersion of human-related pollutants via the atmospheric pathway takes place in the Arctic region. If the current pollution continues without countermeasures, the high-latitude environment may lose its original characteristics; hence, this subject is important when considering how to implement a wide range of environmental protection measures in the Arctic.     

Accelerated delivery of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in recent sediments near a large seabird colony in Arctic Canada

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured in sediment cores from ponds located near a large seabird colony at Cape Vera, Devon Island, Arctic Canada. Surface sediment PCB concentrations were ∼5× greater in seabird-affected sites relative to a nearby control pond and were correlated with independent indicators of seabird activity including, sedimentary δ¹⁵N and lakewater chlorophyll a and cadmium concentrations. PCB fluxes were amongst the highest recorded from the High Arctic, ranging from 290 to 2400 ng m⁻² yr⁻¹. Despite a widespread ban of PCBs in the mid-1970s, PCB accumulation rates in our cores increased, with the highest values recorded in the most recent sediments. Possible mechanisms for the recent PCB increases include a vertical flux step driven by seabird-delivered nutrients and/or delayed loading of PCBs from the catchment into the ponds. The high PCB levels recorded in the seabird-affected sites suggest that seabird colonies are exposing coastal ecosystems to elevated levels of contaminants.     

Bottomfast Ice Mapping and the Measurement of Ice Thickness on Tundra Lakes Using C‐Band Synthetic Aperture Radar Remote Sensing1

Abstract: Industrial activity in Canada’s north is increasing, placing demands on the use of water from lakes to build ice roads. Winter water withdrawal from these lakes has the potential to impact overwintering fish. Removal of water from small lakes can decrease oxygen and habitat available to fish. To address this issue, a protocol has been developed by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans outlining water withdrawal thresholds. Bathymetric surveys are the traditional method to determine lake depth, but are costly given the remoteness of northern lakes. This paper investigates the use of satellite C‐band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) remote sensing technology as a potential alternative or complement to traditional survey methods. Previous research has shown that a SAR can detect the transition from grounded to floating ice on lakes, or if a lake is completely frozen. Grounded ice has a dark signature while floating ice appears very bright in contrast. Similar results were observed for the datasets acquired in the study area. This suggests that lakes that freeze completely to the bottom can be identified using SAR. Such water bodies would not be viable fish overwintering habitat and can therefore be used as water sources without thresholds necessary. However, attempts to accurately calculate the depth of the ice at the grounded‐floating ice boundary using bathymetric profiles acquired in the summer and lake ice thickness measurements from a reference lake near Inuvik proved to be unreliable.     

Geographic distribution of selected elements in the livers of polar bears from Greenland, Canada and the United States

To assess geographic distributions of elements in the Arctic we compared essential and non-essential elements in the livers of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) collected from five regions within Canada in 2002, in Alaska between 1994 and 1999 and from the northwest and east coasts of Greenland between 1988 and 2000. As, Hg, Pb and Se varied with age, and Co and Zn with gender, which limited spatial comparisons across all populations to Cd, which was highest in Greenland bears. Collectively, geographic relationships appeared similar to past studies with little change in concentration over time in Canada and Greenland for most elements; Hg and Se were higher in some Canadian populations in 2002 as compared to 1982 and 1984. Concentrations of most elements in the polar bears did not exceed toxicity thresholds, although Cd and Hg exceeded levels correlated with the formation of hepatic lesions in laboratory animals.     

北极陆地生态系统的碳循环与全球温暖化

根据最新研究资料，综述并分析了全球温暖化与北极陆地生态系统碳循环的关系，指出近代全球大气ＣＯ２和ＣＨ４浓度显著增加，并呈现日益加剧的趋势；这些温室气体的浓度上升与全球温暖化密切相关，自本世纪７０年代开始，北极地区的夏季温度显著上升．通过分析北极陆地生态系统的碳循环及其基本特征，发现北极陆地生态系统是一个巨大的土壤碳库，占全球土壤碳库总量的２３７％—３２３％；虽然该系统目前起着大气ＣＯ２汇的作用，但大气ＣＯ２浓度增加导致的气温上升将对北极土壤碳库和ＣＯ２的源汇功能产生深刻影响．     

铅稳定同位素在示踪环境污染中的应用

根据Pb同位素的地球化学特点,分析了Pb同位素在示踪环境污染中的理论基础.从国内外大量研究实例出发,总结了近年来Pb同位素在示踪工业Pb污染的应用现状,肯定了Pb同位素在示踪Pb工业污染中的地位和作用.结合我国首次北极考察海洋大气气溶胶铅稳定同位素的初步研究,笔者认为研究环境系统有关对象(如大气、海水、冰雪和沉积物等)的Pb同位素组成,通过其Pb同位素混合模型计算和源区参数计算,可有效示踪Pb工业污染的来源、分布和远距离传输规律.      

白令海峡及其附近海域气溶胶中金属元素含量特征

北极考察沿线气溶胶中金属元素质量浓度随纬度变化,其分别受到来自中国大陆粉尘及中国、日本、韩国、俄罗斯以及北美地区工业排放气溶胶的不同程度的影响.富集因子的计算结果表明,楚科奇海、日本海和白令海等海域元素的富集因子很接近. Fe,Co,Ni,As,Sb,W,Mo ,Mn和Ca与地表的风化关系密切,为地壳源元素;Ca,Mg总体为海洋源元素,主要来自海洋;Pb,Zn,Cd,V 和Cr相对地壳和海洋均为富集元素,主要可能来自矿产冶炼、工业排放、燃煤和燃油等人为污染源.北极楚科奇海、白令海、日本海、西太平洋、东印度洋、南大洋及我国中山站邻近海域海洋气溶胶中的微量重金属质量浓度均值对比表明,西太平洋气溶胶中的各种金属元素的平均质量浓度均远远高于其他地区.总体上看,北半球气溶胶受陆源性物质和人为污染源影响比南半球严重,其中楚科奇海较日本海和白令海严重,南半球气溶胶质量浓度则依纬度的升高而逐渐降低.气溶胶月总沉降通量具有明显的区域性,其大小排序为:西太平洋>楚科奇海>白令海和日本海>东印度洋>南大洋>中山站邻近海域.      

The Potential of Current- and Wind-Driven Transport for Environmental Management of the Baltic Sea

The ever increasing impact of the marine industry and transport on vulnerable sea areas puts the marine environment under exceptional pressure and calls for inspired methods for mitigating the impact of the related risks. We describe a method for preventive reduction of remote environmental risks caused by the shipping and maritime industry that are transported by surface currents and wind impact to the coasts. This method is based on characterizing systematically the damaging potential of the offshore areas in terms of potential transport to vulnerable regions of an oil spill or other pollution that has occurred in a particular area. The resulting maps of probabilities of pollution to be transported to the nearshore and the time it takes for the pollution to reach the nearshore are used to design environmentally optimized fairways for the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper, and south-western Baltic Sea.