Rapid Assessment of Risks to a Mobile Marine Mammal in an Ecosystem-Scale Marine Protected Area

Abstract:  Ecosystem-scale networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) are important conservation tools, but their effectiveness is difficult to quantify in a time frame appropriate to species conservation because of uncertainties in the data available. The dugong ( Dugong dugon ) is a mobile marine species that occurs in shallow inshore waters of an ecosystem-scale network of MPAs (the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area [GBRWHA]). We developed a rapid approach to assess risk to dugongs in the region and evaluate options to ameliorate that risk. We used expert opinion and a Delphi technique to identify and rank 5 human factors with the potential to adversely affect dugongs and their sea grass habitats: netting, indigenous hunting, trawling, vessel traffic, and poor-quality terrestrial runoff. We then quantified and compared the distribution of these factors with a spatially explicit model of dugong distribution. We estimated that approximately 96% of habitat of high conservation value for dugongs in the GBRWHA is at low risk from human activities. Using a sensitivity analysis, we found that to decrease risk, commercial netting or indigenous hunting had to be reduced in remote areas and the effects of vessel traffic, terrestrial runoff, and commercial netting had to be reduced in urban areas. This approach enabled us to compare and rank risks so as to identify the most severe risks and locate specific sites that require further management attention.     

Assessing Changes in Amphibian Population Dynamics Following Experimental Manipulations of Introduced Fish

Abstract: Sport‐fish introductions are now recognized as an important cause of amphibian decline, but few researchers have quantified the demographic responses of amphibians to current options in fisheries management designed to minimize effects on sensitive amphibians. Demographic analyses with mark–recapture data allow researchers to assess the relative importance of survival, local recruitment, and migration to changes in population densities. I conducted a 4‐year, replicated whole‐lake experiment in the Klamath Mountains of northern California (U.S.A.) to quantify changes in population density, survival, population growth rate, and recruitment of the Cascades frog (Rana cascadae) in response to manipulations of non‐native fish populations. I compared responses of the frogs in lakes where fish were removed, in lakes in their naturally fish‐free state, and in lakes where fish remained that were either stocked annually or no longer being stocked. Within 3 years of fish removals from 3 lakes, frog densities increased by a factor of 13.6. The survival of young adult frogs increased from 59% to 94%, and realized population growth and recruitment rates at the fish‐removal lakes were more than twice as high as the rates for fish‐free reference lakes and lakes that contained fish. Population growth in the fish‐removal lakes was likely due to better on‐site recruitment of frogs to later life stages rather than increased immigration. The effects on R. cascadae of suspending stocking were ambiguous and suggested no direct benefit to amphibians. With amphibians declining worldwide, these results show that active restoration can slow or reverse the decline of species affected by fish stocking within a short time frame.     

Assessment of the allelopathic effect of leaf and seed extracts of Canavalia ensiformis as postemergent bioherbicides: A green alternative for sustainable agriculture

The herbicidal potential of aqueous extracts prepared from leaves and seeds of Canavalia ensiformis was tested by applying them postemergence to the crop weeds Ipomoea grandifolia and Commelina benghalensis. Considering the possible objective of using this bioherbicide on soybean fields, the extracts were also tested for deleterious effects on both transgenic and conventional soybean (Glycine max). In addition, the concentrations of four phenolic compounds and alkaloids with allelopathic properties in these extracts were estimated by high-performance liquid chromatography. The seed extract at concentrations of 25 g L^?1 and 50 g L^?1 was the most efficient postemergent bioherbicide. By applying these extracts, the development of the weed seed was progressively hindered until no recovery was observed. The application of 3.5 mL of crude extract on a plant that takes 30 days after germination of the seed to develop is sufficient for full control of the species within 5 days. Since both Ipomoea grandifolia and Commelina benghalensis are broadleaf dicotyledons, it is possible that other species with these characteristics can also be controlled or suffer the same effects under the action of the seed extract, if the same volume and mode of application are used. The selectivity of the treatments with 25 g L^?1 and 50 g L^?1 was assessed on transgenic and conventional cultivars. The treatments did not visibly affect the soybean cultivars, which developed normally during the observation period that continued up to 15 days after the death of the weeds.     

能源流视角下村落尺度能源消费结构比较及环境效应研究：基于河南省邑西里村、杨家村及山东省东桥头村的调查分析

加强村落尺度能源消费活动及其环境效应研究是实现农村能源可持续转型及绿色发展精细化治理的前提。但目前该领域存在明显知识空白，其原因在于缺乏基础数据和系统化数据采集体系及集成分析方法。基于对河南省邑西里村、杨家村以及山东省东桥头村的实地调研和半结构式访谈，采用定性和定量结合的方法开展能源消费活动及环境效应比较研究。结果表明：（1）村落尺度能源消费具有显著空间分异特征。邑西里村、杨家村和东桥头村人均能源消费量分别为505 kgce、889 kgce和1139 kgce；由能源消费产生的温室气体与污染物的种类分别为CO₂、CH₄、SO₂、N₂O、NO_x和TSP，单个家庭CO₂的产生量在2000—4000 kg；CH₄、SO₂、TSP和NO_x的排放量基本在1—5 kg；N₂O的排放量均在100 g以下。（2）居民生活环境和炊事供暖是影响村域能源消费的主要因素。其在邑西里村、杨家村和东桥头村的总用能占比分别为50.10%、79.08%和77.61%。（3）能源来源及消费结构具有明显的区位属性特征。杨家村距离市区较近，天然气成为当地居民的主要来源；邑西里村和东桥头村离市区较远，则以电力和煤炭为主。未来乡村地区的发展应该与当地的地域特征相结合，构建具有地方化特征的发展策略，实现农村能源的低碳健康发展。     

Proactive limit values for responsible management of chemicals

Limit values (LVs) are legal concentration limits for constituents, residues and contaminants in consumer products or for emissions from production processes into environmental compartments. They are a traditional regulatory aid to manage chemicals in human environments. To make them proactive, LVs should become enforced by means of a transparent and informed decision process whose starting point is the Basic Rule of Environmental Hygiene, BREH:Avoid useless exposure as far as possible, minimize useful exposure in a reasonable manner, and prevent that exposure which is dangerous. The BREH calls upon minimizing exposure not only according toon site risk potentials and acceptance, but also tooff site avoidability and acceptability.     

中国对外直接投资的母国环境效应研究——基于区域差异的视角

本研究基于1999-2010年中国省际面板数据,实证分析了中国对外直接投资的母国环境效应.基于联立方程及情景模拟的结果显示:①对外直接投资对规模、结构与技术的影响机制存在明显的区域差异,此外,规模、结构与技术对工业污染的影响机制也同样存在明显的区域差异,基于传导机制与终端影响的区域异质性,采用区域模型比采用全国模型更加合理;②对外直接投资对区域环境影响充满了不确定性,有赢家,有输家,也有许多地区输赢参半.其中,受益地区往往为经济发达地区(比如,华东),受损地区往往为经济欠发达地区(比如,东北).然而,赢者,其受益机制各有不同;输者,其受损机制也截然有异.③综合看来,对外直接投资产生积极母国环境效应的一般机制在于,产业结构优化效应与逆向技术溢出效应;对外直接投资产生消极母国环境效应的一般机制在于,技术效应与结构效应的非期望传导.可见,因地制宜地制定区域性开放经济政策,对中国对外直接投资向环境友好型转变具有重要意义.     

Multiple Effects of Energy Issues and Countermeasures: A Case of Shandong Province

Abstract

Energy is now becoming the bottleneck of urban and regional development. The paper takes Shandong Province, one of the most energy consuming provinces in China, as an example, uses quantity methods such as SPSS (Stastics Package for Social Science) cluster sampling and regression analysis, and applies quantity analysis, to analyze the situation of energy issues in Shandong province. The conflicts between the quick industrialization and increasing extensive economic development, between urban population and energy consuming per head, between the infinite energy consuming desire and the low level of managing system, and between the unstable world energy supply and the limited energy storage in China are the main factors of energy crisis in Shandong, which not only results in energy shortage, but also becomes the barrier of economic and social development. In order to ensure sufficient energy supply for Shandong province in the 21st century, we should take countermeasures, such as changing the economic development model, pursuing a multiple and high quality energy strategy, improving the intensive urbanization strategy, and building a scientific energy system.     

Predicting the economic and demographic impacts of long distance commuting in the resources sector: A Surat basin case study

Predicting the economic and demographic impacts of resource development on regional areas is difficult to assess because of limited availability of analysis, difficulties of predicting where workforce are likely to be based, and different impacts on communities because of variations in size and economic structures. In this study modelling has been employed to identify future employment and demographic impacts of future resource developments on communities in the Surat Basin in southern Queensland, Australia. The analysis summarises potential employment increases over multiple projects and uses multipliers from Input–Output models to assess likely impacts by local government area when future workforce might commute to or live locally in the region. The results demonstrate that recent moves to commuting workforces limit the economic impacts on local and regional communities in complex ways.     

景区级别与日历效应比较研究——以新疆吐鲁番4景区为例

日历效应是旅游活动在年内变化的时间节律,主要体现在季节效应、节日效应和周末效应。基于景区级别—旅游客流量模型,收集新疆吐鲁番4景区连续3年的逐日客流量数据,通过构建3个指数模型测算效应值,以分析景区级别与日历效应之间的关系。结果发现:吐鲁番旅游淡旺季特别明显,景区级别越高,淡旺季差异越大;五一和国庆节日效应最高,景区级别越低,节日效应越显著,长假期有明显的节前和节后效应;周末效应有明显的季节性差异,周六效应高于周日效应,景区级别越低,周末效应越高。最后,从气候变化、节假日制度和作息制度探讨了旅游日历效应的成因。     

基于时空混合效应模型的京津冀PM2.5浓度变化模拟

为揭示京津冀地区高精度PM_2.5的时空分布特征,以空间分辨率为1 km的MAIAC AOD数据为主要预测因子,以气象数据、植被指数、夜间灯光数、人口密度和海拔数据作为辅助因子,构建了一种新的时空混合效应模型（STLME）,在拟合最优次区域划分方案基础上对京津冀地区PM_2.5浓度进行预测分析.结果表明,基于STLME模型的ρ(PM_2.5)预测精度高于传统的线性混合效应模型（LME）,其十折交叉验证（CV）R²为0.91,明显高于LME模型的0.87,说明STLME模型在同时校正PM_2.5-AOD关系的时空异质性方面具有优势.最优次区域划分方案识别出PM_2.5-AOD关系的空间差异,并结合缓冲区平滑方法,提高了STLME模型预测精度.京津冀PM_2.5浓度时空变化差异显著,高值区主要分布在以石家庄、邢台和邯郸为中心的河北南部,低值区则位于燕山-太行山区;冬季PM_2.5污染最严重,其次是秋季和春季,夏季污染最轻.STLM...