碳交易政策对工业碳生产率的影响及传导机制

以2005~2017年30个省市面板数据为研究样本,采用双重差分、动态效应检验和三重差分等方法,考察了碳交易政策对工业碳生产率的影响效果及异质性,同时利用多重中介效应模型,解析碳交易对工业碳生产率的实现机制.结果表明,碳交易政策显著提升了工业碳生产率,实现了"降碳促经"效果,且该效果保持逐年上升趋势;异质性检验表明,各试点地区对政策的响应程度存在一定差异,北京、天津、上海、湖北工业碳生产率的提升效果较为显著,而广东、重庆未能对政策做出充分响应;机制分析发现,碳交易政策能够有效激励环境治理效应、结构优化效应和技术革新效应,进而影响工业碳生产率提升,其中结构优化效应是响应政策最为充分的机制.本文研究结果可为中国未来碳市场运行提供一定参考.     

北京市控制PM2.5污染的健康效益评估

实施PM_2.5污染控制后所带来的居民健康经济效益评估,对推进区域环境空气质量监管、健康预警以及防治等工作具有重要意义.本文采用泊松回归相对危险模型和环境价值评估方法,对2016~2019北京16个辖区年PM_2.5污染控制到二级标准限值35 μg·m^-3后所带来的健康风险及经济效益进行评估.结果显示,2016~2019年北京及其16个辖区PM_2.5浓度、各健康终端效应、经济效益以及人均经济健康效益等均呈现出下降趋势.其中,北京PM_2.5浓度值从2016年的73 μg·m^-3下降至2019年的42 μg·m^-3,年均下降率为16.75%,控制PM_2.5污染的健康总受益人数从2016年的439985例（95%置信区间：183987,653476）下降到2019年的77288例（95%置信区间：30483,120905）,年平均下降率约为42.67%.健康经济效益占GDP的比重从3.16%（95%置信区间：1.10%,4.73%）下降到0.55%（95%置信区间：0.18%,0.88%）,人均健康经济效益从3727.61元（95%置信区间：1303.24,5592.18）下降到906.58元（95%置信区间：295.14,1438.27）.此外,由于PM_2.5浓度、人口数量和密度以及单位健康终端经济价值的差异使得北京16个辖区的健康经济效益、占GDP比重以及人均效益估算结果各有差异,其中丰台、通州和大兴等远高于其他辖区,健康风险与经济效益问题相对突出.     

特种车辆雷电效应仿真分析

雷电是一种极具破坏性的自然现象,产生的电磁干扰会对电气设备造成影响,采取仿真分析的手段可提前发现车辆雷电防护设计的薄弱环节。针对某特种车辆热待机工况下,雷电击中附近避雷针时,对车辆所处的电磁环境特点进行了仿真分析,为特种车防雷设计和雷电验证试验提供支撑和参考。     

飞行器雷电间接效应危害及其防护研究

雷电对飞行器的损伤作用分为直接效应和间接效应,间接效应可能导致内部电子电气设备及系统功能紊乱或丧失。本文在分析雷电特性的基础上,应用理论分析和计算的方法,探究了飞行器雷电间接效应的作用机理,并结合GJB 1389A[1]、GJB 2639-1996[2]等标准对间接效应试验和雷电防护方案进行了设计。     

中国大河流域开发与国家文明发育

水是生命之源。大河流域既是地球淡水资源的关键载体,也是人类文明发育的主要摇篮。作为世界文明古国和现代发展中大国,中国的情况更是如此。长期的实践表明,大河流域的开发具有明显的生态效应极化特征:即在人文生态系统获取快速发育的同时,严重干扰和破坏了流域自然生态的系统发育及其多样化的发展。流域开发的程度越高,这种极化效应的特征也就越明显。论文的实证分析表明,由于缺乏流域开发生态效应的正确认识和过分追求人文发展利益发育最大化,黄河和长江两大流域的资源环境承载能力正在面临着日趋严峻的挑战。例如,河水断流、水质污染、湿地萎缩和水生物种消亡。为国家现代文明的永续发展计,亟需改变目前传统的"重开发、轻保护"大河流域资源环境开发观。     

Transformations in carbon and nitrogen-forms in peat subjected to progressive thermal stress as revealed by analytical pyrolysis

To study the characteristic N-forms of humic-type materials, samples of sapric peat from Galicia (northern Spain) were heated at 350 °C for 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180 s, and studied by Curie-point Py-GC/MS, solid-state CPMAS ¹³C-NMR and ¹⁵N-NMR spectroscopies. NMR analysis of the peat samples in the progressive heating stages showed the concentration of heterocyclic N-forms, the maximum structural transition amide-to-heterocyclic forms being observed in samples heated for 120 s (56% heterocyclic N and 34% aromatic C). Under more drastic conditions all N-forms were depleted. Correlation between spectroscopic and pyrolytic data betrayed specific pyrolytic markers for the different N-forms. The intensity of the ¹⁵N-NMR amide peak tended to be positively correlated to the yield of indoles, imidazoles and pyrazoles, and negatively correlated to those of benzonitriles and pyrazines. Analytical pyrolysis also showed a progressive enrichment in lipids and alkyl macromolecules with increasing heating intensity, and a decrease in lignin-derived, polysaccharide-derived and N-containing compounds. The relative abundance of non-methoxyphenolic aromatic compounds did not change. The N-compounds in peat samples unheated or heated for 60–90 s released methylpyrazole, dimethylpyrroline, methyldiphenylindole and pyrazole, whereas peat samples heated for 120 s mainly yielded methylpyrazine and methyldiphenylindole. Dimethylpyrroline and pyrazine prevailed in samples heated for 150 s, whereas samples heated for 180 s yielded mainly pyrrole. Pyrolysis data presented low possibilities for forecasting the extent of the O-alkyl domain, but reflected quantitatively the transformations in the lignin-like moiety. Both techniques coincide in pointing out the accumulation of a recalcitrant alkyl domain possibly derived from abiotic condensations or inherited lipid biomacromolecules.     

Incorporating Climate Science in Applications of the U.S. Endangered Species Act for Aquatic Species

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long‐term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long‐term projections of climate‐change effects provide temporal context as a species‐wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas     

生草栽培对三种岭南水果种植系统的生态经济影响评价

综合运用能值、经济与土壤生态学分析方法,以传统清耕模式为对照,定量研究了生草栽培对荔枝（LitchichinensisSonn）、龙眼（DimocarpuslonganLour）和番荔枝（AnnonasquamosaLinn）三种岭南水果种植系统的生态经济影响。整合系统物质流、能量流和货币流,综合分析其自然资源基础、经济发展状况及可持续发展程度,并将土壤有机质的消耗纳入不可更新自然资源能值投入分析,为岭南水果业生草栽培与否提供科学依据。结果表明,生草栽培可以将荔枝和龙眼种植系统的能值可持续性从传统清耕模式的0．16和0．46分别提升到0．17和0．47;而使番荔枝种植系统的能值可持续性从传统清耕模式的0．59降至0．45。同时,生草栽培可提高荔枝和番荔枝种植系统的经济效益,而降低龙眼种植系统的经济效益。所有案例结果均表明,生草栽培可降低果园土壤有机质的消耗。     

急性毒性藻红外测试中联合作用的评价方法（Evaluation Method for Combined Toxicity Effects in the Measure of Alage Infrared Radiation for Acute Toxicity）

藻红外测试中联合作用的评价方法是急性毒性藻红外测试法的重要组成,为建立其评价方法,用敏感藻和重金属、有机药品、农药开展了探索性实验.首先确定联合作用系数θ的计算式和总均偏差系数f,用其构建联合偏差系数法;再用实验得到的f=0.06调整相加作用的θ理论值(θ=1),联合偏差系数θi分别在大于、等于、小于1+0.06或1-0.06时,评价联合作用类型;最后进行二元药品对敏感藻联合作用的验证实验,验证联合偏差系数法的可行性.结果发现,4种重金属6种混合对短线脆杆藻(Fragilaria brevistriata)的联合作用为:3次拮抗作用,2次独立作用,1次相加作用;4种有机药品6种混合对羊角月牙藻(Selenastrum capricornutum)的联合作用为:2次协同作用,3次独立作用,1次拮抗作用;8种农药12种混合对水华鱼腥藻、纤细裸藻的联合作用为:9次拮抗作用,3次独立作用;一组验证实验包括藻液加药、测试、计算和评价,共需要60min,而用光密度、细胞数、叶绿素含量、细胞干重作为测试指标进行藻类急性毒性实验,需要24h～96h.对验证结果分析可知,用所构建的联合偏差系数法评价二元药品对敏感藻的联合作用,具有可行、快速、简便的优势.     

环境混合物的联合毒性研究方法

人类和其他生物通过多重途径暴露于大量的环境污染物中。单一化合物由于其在环境中非常低的浓度使得人们忽视其可能的健康危害,然而,多种化合物在环境中同时存在,就意味着更加复杂的联合作用的可能性。Something from nothing现象引起了科学界对于环境混合物加和作用和潜在协同作用的关注,致使许多研究联合毒性的数学和生物模型的提出和应用。本文综述了这些研究方法,以及未来化学混合物研究和管理面临的挑战。