基于空间适宜性评价和人口承载力的贵溪市中心城区城市开发边界的划定

城市开发边界的划定能够合理引导城市空间的有序发展,控制其无序蔓延。论文以典型的资源型城市贵溪市为研究区,从空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模以及城市总体规划和土地利用总体规划（简称“两规”）衔接等方面探索有效的城市开发边界划定方法。空间适宜性评价综合考虑自然、空间可达性和生态条件,运用聚类分析法确定区域内不宜作为开发建设的生态底线区域和适宜建设开发区域的高低等级,以此确定城市开发边界的发展方向。通过灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测研究区2020年人口总量,并基于土地资源和水资源承载力验证当地所能容纳的最大人口总量,同时确定城市规模和划定城市开发边界。以空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模预测、两规衔接和空间形态控制等方法倒逼缩减建设用地,从而划定城市发展的刚性和弹性增长边界。     

气候变化和人类活动对武江流域年径流及最大日流量影响的定量分析

针对气候变化与人类活动对流域年径流及最大日流量变化影响的定量识别问题,以华南湿润区武江流域为例,分别采用HIMS（Hydro-Informatic Modeling System）模型和敏感性系数法,从日和年尺度定量模拟和评估气候变化与人类活动对流域年最大日流量和径流变化的影响过程及贡献率。结果表明：HIMS模型在武江流域适用性良好,日尺度模型率定期和验证期的纳西效率系数分别为0.85和0.77,水量平衡误差绝对值分别为3.1%和3.3%;两种方法均表明气候变化是引起流域年径流量增加的主要因素,人类活动导致了流域径流量的减少,但贡献率较小。气候变化与人类活动导致了流域年最大日流量的增加,气候变化对年最大日流量增加的贡献率为94%,而人类活动的贡献率则为6%。相较于年均径流量,气候变化对年最大日流量的影响更为显著。     

约束条件下中国循环经济发展中的生态效率——基于优化的超效率SBM-Malmquist-Tobit模型

以中国30个省份、直辖市、自治区的年度面板数据为研究对象,重点将生态资源存量和环境污染造成的经济浪费两项指标纳入新的生态效率评价体系,运用优化的引入非期望产出的超效率SBM模型测算生态效率,再运用Malmquist指数考察全要素生产率（TFP）与生态效率的动态变动关系,最后运用Tobit回归分析探索生态效率主要影响因素的方向、强度和变化趋势,以此度量和展现循环经济发展的整体情况.结果显示：生态效率呈现由东到西、由沿海到内陆逐渐收敛的格局,东部沿海地区和中部、西部内陆地区间,循环经济发展水平存在显著的阶梯式区域失衡;生态效率的集群效应明显,辐射效应不足,不同地区或同一地区的不同省份间,循环经济发展水平同样参差不齐;经济发展引发的生态赤字问题逐步缓解,但在短时间内经济和生态的矛盾依旧存在,西北地区尤为突显;第三产业比重、技术进步、市场开放对生态效率的提升具有积极作用且趋于强化;政府规制、人口密度对生态效率的提升也具有积极作用但趋于减弱;第二产业比重、能源结构对生态效率的改善存在负面影响亦趋于强化.     

考虑边界条件不确定性的地下水污染风险分析

为分析边界条件不确定性对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型输出结果的影响,运用Monte Carlo方法对一算例进行阐明,并从污染风险预报方面对模拟结果进行分析.为减少重复调用模拟模型产生的大量计算负荷,将边界条件（第一类边界条件-水头值）作为随机变量,建立地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型的Kriging替代模型,在保证较高精度的同时,实现了Monte Carlo模拟.结果表明：边界条件的不确定性,对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型预报的结果有很大影响,考虑与未考虑边界条件不确定性得到的研究区污染羽分布差别较大.对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型的Monte Carlo模拟结果进行统计与分析,可以评估研究区观测井1,2,3污染物浓度预报结果的可靠程度,并且可以预报出研究区观测井1,2,3遭受不同程度污染的风险.     

爆炸螺栓分离对热防护系统冲击响应分析

目的考察在爆炸螺栓分离过程中,作用在TPS(热防护系统)上的冲击响应是否会导致其破坏,从而影响航天器飞行安全,对过程进行数值仿真分析。方法提出四阶段仿真方案,基于MSC.Dytran软件,采用流固耦合方法对爆炸螺栓分离过程进行动力学仿真;根据单个爆炸螺栓地面分离试验的结构进行建模和分析,获取结构响应曲线;再根据实测的冲击响应数据,对爆炸过程中炸药及JWL方程的参数等设置进行调整,获取准确爆炸螺栓的分析模型;最后应用于对真实结构中TPS(热防护系统)在分离过程里受爆炸螺栓冲击响应的动力学分析与评估。结果通过参数调整,获得的仿真模型与爆炸螺栓地面分离试验实测结果一致,证明了仿真模型的有效性和四阶段仿真方案的可行性。结论提取的真实结构爆炸螺栓分离过程中作用在TPS(热防护结构)上的最大加速度响应曲线,可用于指导TPS(热防护系统)的设计。     

污染物在地下水毛细饱水带的运移规律浅释

分析了毛细饱水带的水动力学特性，指出在地下水污染研究中，污染物在毛细饱和水带和潜水怪具有相同的水平运动规律，并以实例分析说明该带对污染物运移的重要性。建议在研究和一非饱和条件地下水及污染物运动问题时把毛细饱水带与潜水含水层统一为饱马毛细饱水带顶面作为饱水面。     

Economic development and environmental protection: an ecological economics perspective

This paper argues on both theoretical and empirical grounds that, beyond a certain point, there is an unavoidable conflictbetween economic development (generally taken to mean 'materialeconomic growth') and environmental protection. Think for a moment of natural forests, grasslands, marine estuaries, salt marshes, and coral reefs; and of arable soils, aquifers, mineraldeposits, petroleum, and coal. These are all forms of 'natural capital' that represent highly-ordered self-producing ecosystemsor rich accumulations of energy/matter with high use potential (low entropy). Now contemplate despoiled landscapes, eroding farmlands, depleted fisheries, anthropogenic greenhouse gases,acid rain, poisonous mine tailings and toxic synthetic compounds.These all represent disordered systems or degraded forms of energy and matter with little use potential (high entropy). The main thing connecting these two states is human economic activity. Ecological economics interprets the environment-economyrelationship in terms of the second law of thermodynamics. The second law sees economic activity as a dissipative process. Fromthis perspective, the production of economic goods andservices invariably requires the consumption of available energy and matter. To grow and develop, the economynecessarily 'feeds' on sources of high-quality energy/matter first produced by nature. This tends to disorder and homogenizethe ecosphere, The ascendance of humankind has consistently been accompanied by an accelerating rate of ecological degradation, particularly biodiversity loss, the simplificationof natural systems and pollution. In short, contemporary political rhetoric to the contrary, the prevailing growth-oriented global development paradigm is fundamentally incompatible with long-term ecological and social sustainability. Unsustainability is not a technical nor economic problem as usually conceived, but rather a state of systemic incompatibilitybetween a economy that is a fully-contained, growing, dependent sub-system of a non-growing ecosphere. Potential solutions fly inthe face of contemporary development trends and cultural values.     

A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.     

Aerosol Scavenging: Model Application and Sensitivity Analysis in the Indian Context

Sulfate aerosols have been found to bethe major contributors to precipitation acidity. Thus,in view of the long-term ecological repercussions theyhave on aquatic ecosystems and their acidity-potential,the present analysis focuses on a case study applicationof the layer-averaged aerosol-scavenging model (Okita et al., 1996) for predicting values of the wet scavengingcoefficient and sulfate concentrations in precipitationsamples on the basis of the information available forsome selected Indian cities. Through sensitivityanalysis (Pandey et al., 1997) the scavengingcoefficient has been found to be very strongly dependenton precipitation intensity. Comparison of modelpredictions has been done with the measured values forDelhi, Mumbai, Calcutta and Chennai in India.     

Prediction of Leachate Level in Kimpo Metropolitan Landfill Site by Total Water Balance

Kimpo metropolitan landfill has received various kinds of wastessince January 1992. The leachate level was measured to be 10.3 m in May 1995 and the level increased to 12.2 m in August 1996. Therefore, to prove the reason for the increasing leachate level, we calibrated hydraulic conductivity of each waste andintermediate layer using the HELP (Hydrologic Evaluation ofLandfill Performance) model. The leachate generation data measured from February 1993 to October 1995 was used in the model calibration. As a result of a model calibration, we obtained anaverage infiltration ratio and used this in analysis of the total water balance to predict elevation of leachate level. Main causes of the elevation of the leachate level were the high water content of the waste and the degradation of the leachate-drainage system caused by the subsidence of a naturalbarrier layer.