中国工业碳排放达峰的情景预测与减排潜力评估

实现2030年碳排放达峰不仅是中国为应对全球气候变化向国际社会做出的郑重承诺,也是中国未来经济结构转型与可持续发展的必然选择。基于中国实现2030年碳排放达到峰值的宏观目标为背景,本文以中国碳排放的主要行业工业为研究对象,首先运用拓展的STIRPAT模型对工业及其9个细分行业的碳排放达峰进行了情景预测,然后基于公平和效率的双重视角对工业细分行业的减排潜力进行评估。研究表明:(1)仅有低碳情景和抑制排放情景2可以实现中国碳排放2030年达峰,低碳情景是实现中国工业碳排放达峰的最佳发展模式,达峰时间最早(2030年),峰值最低(140.43亿t)。激进排放情景则是最差的发展模式,达峰时间最晚(2036年),峰值也最高(150.09亿t)。(2)工业内部各细分行业碳排放的最优达峰情景差别较大。建材和纺织制造业能够实现提前达峰,可以在这类行业率先实施达峰管理措施,使其带动其他行业陆续达峰。(3)最具减排潜力的行业是石油制造业,其次是电力行业,这些减排潜力较大的行业应该成为国家节能减排的重点对象。(4)基于工业各细分行业在减排公平性和效率性上的差异将工业9个细分行业分为四类。其中,石油、钢铁制造业和电力行业属于"高效高公平行业";化工、建材制造业属于"低效高公平行业";采掘业属于"高效不公平行业";纺织、轻工和机电制造业属于"低效不公平行业"。中国应针对不同类型的行业制定出相应的减排战略,将减排重点放在各行业最具潜力的方面。最后,文章对实现中国工业碳排放达峰管理提出了几点政策建议。     

Growth in urban extent and allometric analysis of West African cities

Urban area expansion is happening at much faster rates in Asian and African cities than elsewhere in the world. This study uses multi-temporal Landsat images to map the urban extent of six small to large cities in West Africa at four different time steps from the early 1970s–2010. The selected cities are Kumasi of Ghana, Daloa of Cote d’Ivoire, Abuja and Kano in Nigeria, Kindia of Guinea, and Ouagadougou of Burkina Faso. All cities revealed significant urban growth in both urban area and population; however, it was apparent that there was a lot of variability in urban area development. Exponential urban growth rates in the cities were measured as ranging between 0.026 and 0.077, with allometric scaling factors matching those of other countries.     

产业园区碳排放核算方法研究

产业园区是一个协同实现经济效益和环境效益的重要单元,同时也是重点碳排放源,其转型和发展对实现国家和地区的低碳战略起到关键作用。碳排放核算方法影响园区碳排放水平的评估,是制定有效碳减排策略的基础。产业园区碳排放核算需要明确核算对象、核算结果表征和核算范围。本研究首先界定核算对象,辨析"二氧化碳量"与"二氧化碳当量"两种表征方式,认为二氧化碳量可以反映产业园区能源结构,而二氧化碳当量则能够量化园区的不同排放过程和环境效应。同时,从价值链角度出发,将园区碳排放核算划分为三个Scope,分别反映园区直接排放和上下游关联企业的间接排放。然后,从排放活动和部门关联出发,分析三种典型碳排放核算方法(清单分析法、投入产出分析和生态网络分析),进一步划分为流量分析模式和结构分析模式。流量分析模式主要从排放量角度对园区内部及其上下游产业链相关的碳排放活动进行核算;结构分析模式则聚焦园区相关碳排放部门和价值链的组织形式,从投入产出或者网络关联角度开展分析。研究发现清单分析法可以自下而上量化产业园区碳排放活动的流量,投入产出法则自上而下揭示碳排放单元的直接和间接流量以及平行结构,而生态网络分析则采用混合式核算模式刻画碳排放单元之间的网状关联结构。最后,本研究初步提出了产业园区碳排放核算方法的研究框架,力求提高排放因子精度,改进核算模式和建立动态核算模型,对碳排放总量和结构进行预测,从而实现产业园区的低碳发展。     

基于内容分析法的土地利用总体规划目标偏好研究

土地利用总体规划需要统筹区域发展多元目标以增强对区域发展的指导力和约束性,因此全面了解我国土地利用总体规划的政策目标偏好,能为优化规划技术方法和改革规划管理体制提供政策参考。鉴于此,本文在分析我国土地利用总体规划多元目标及其关系的基础上,采用内容分析法基于全国土地利用总体规划纲要进行词频挖掘构建目标偏好测量维度及体系,进而对两轮省级土地利用总体规划文本进行目标偏好的定量测度,结果表明:(1)土地利用总体规划是多目标规划,通过内容分析法可以构建由经济、社会、生态三大目标构成的目标偏好测量体系;(2)从目标偏好排序来看,三大目标中社会目标始终是两轮土地利用总体规划的首要偏好目标,生态目标是土地利用总体规划的次要偏好目标,经济目标排在最后;同时相比上轮规划,本轮规划耕地保护子目标次序提前,土地整治子目标次序推后;(3)从目标偏好程度来看,社会目标的首位偏好程度有所下降,但其中耕地保护子目标的首位偏好度明显上升;生态目标和经济目标的首位偏好程度基本不变,总体而言本轮规划三大目标偏好程度的差异缩小。研究结果说明,我国土地利用总体规划始终坚持以耕地保护为核心的社会目标偏好,符合其是国土资源管理部门主导的部门规划的定位;虽然土地利用总体规划对经济、社会、生态三大目标的偏好程度差异缩小,但其若要在空间规划体系中发挥更大的作用,还需要通过优化规划技术和改革规划管理体制进一步均衡经济、社会、生态目标,以承担起统领全区域空间发展的要求。     

Hydraulic fracturing as an interpretive policy problem: lessons on energy controversies in Europe and the U.S.A.

This special issue addresses hydraulic fracturing for shale gas extraction as an interpretive policy problem. Bringing together empirical cases from the U.S.A., the Netherlands, the U.K., Poland, and Germany, we identify three approaches to the interpretation of hydraulic fracturing in the article: understanding its meaning, contextual explanation of the institutionalization of its meaning, and policy design as intervention to alter its meaning. By exploring differences and similarities across these cases, we identified two central tensions in the meaning of shale gas in all cases: (1) economic opportunity or environmental threat and (2) transition toward a more carbon-free energy future or perpetuation of a fossil fuel system. We found that when actors shift the meaning of hydraulic fracturing to consider it predominantly an issue of threat, this explains the dominance of risk governance as an approach to managing the controversy. Alternately, when the meaning of fracking shifts from consideration as an economic opportunity or a bridge fuel to consideration of it as a barrier to an energy transition, this explains the decision to ban fracking. Therefore, a comparative assessment of the papers demonstrates the ways interpretive dimensions of politics can influence the governance of public policy.     

Framing Dynamics and Political Gridlock: The Curious Case of Hydraulic Fracturing in New York

‘Fracking’ was on New York's agenda since 2008, yet no decision was made about it until late 2014. The gridlock is an intriguing puzzle given that the Marcellus shale is considered a ‘world class’ energy supply, and development has been aggressive in other US states. While policy scholars typically conceptualize gridlock as policy stability, this paper examines it as a dynamic process by which competing discourse coalitions engage in interactive framing processes that (re)structure the discussion. This suggests that the interaction between contending coalitions influences gridlock. Yet, we lack knowledge about interactive framing between competing coalitions during policy controversies. Our main finding is that a central mechanism of gridlock is the production of conflict through interactive framing dynamics that deny a shared discursive space capable of ushering in a consensus, or reasoned agreement. In New York, this contest evolved from a policy consensus about the economic benefits of fracking to policy negotiation that incorporated environmental threats, and to prolonged policy controversy in which competing discourse coalitions contested notions of fracking in relation to energy production, environmental protection, public health, economic development, and governance. While a ban has been instituted, the failure to bridge discourse coalitions suggests that controversy will persist unless meaning disputes are resolved.     

Experimental investigation of a solar water distillation-cum-drying unit

In this communication, a new design of solar-energy-based water distillation cum drying unit with parabolic reflector has been designed, fabricated, and tested. Bitter gourd and potato slices are chosen as a drying commodity. Thermal performance of the developed system has been evaluated based on the experimental results and using linear regression analysis. Heat transfer coefficients (convective, evaporative, and radiative) for solar distillation system have been observed to be 2.48–4.09, 13.25–52.38, and 8.75–9.66 W/m²°C, respectively. Overall thermal efficiency and exergy efficiency for the distillation system has been found to be 18.77% and 1.2%, respectively. The convective heat transfer coefficient for potato slices are observed higher for initial hours and decreases as the day progresses. The average convective heat transfer coefficients for bitter gourd and potato slices have been observed as 2.18 and 5.04 W/m²°C, respectively. Experimental error in terms of percent uncertainty for bitter gourd and potato slices are found to be 42.93% and 37.06%, respectively. The present design of solar distillation and drying in a single unit could be beneficial for the development of remote, arid, and rural areas.     

Techno-economic and environmental analysis of an integrated standalone hybrid solar hydrogen system to supply CCHP loads of a greenhouse in Iran

The techno-economic and environmental performance of hybrid solar hydrogen energy systems was investigated to provide combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) demands of a standalone greenhouse in Iran to achieve sustainable agriculture based on an optimization procedure. From the environmental point of view, by deploying hybrid energy systems, 83%, to 100% of emissions can be avoided. Also a sensitivity analysis was performed on the hybrid energy systems in order to study the effect of major parameter variation on the systems justification. It was concluded that hybrid solar systems are economically competitive with conventional systems, for high solar intensity locations with high diesel fuel prices and decreased prices for PV and hydrogen storage technology.     

盐析分相微萃取—高效液相色谱法测定水中含氯除草剂

采用盐析分相微萃取—高效液相色谱法同时测定水中3种含氯除草剂,建立并优化了反相离子对液相色谱条件,考察了萃取剂种类、盐析剂的种类和加入量及试样pH对萃取效果的影响。对氯苯氧乙酸、2,4-二氯苯氧乙酸和2,4-滴丁酯的质量浓度在0.1~100.0mg/L内与色谱峰面积呈良好的线性关系,相关系数不低于0.9992。平均回收率分别为96.29%、79.16%和70.21%,相对标准偏差小于5.3%。该方法操作简便、绿色环保,适合于水中含氯除草剂的测定。     

基于AHP的可听噪声影响因素权值分析

影响超高压输电线路可听噪声的因素众多,对影响可听噪声的因素进行合理分析确定其对可听噪声影响的权重是进行可听噪声预测和合理有效降低可听噪声的前提。对影响可听噪声的因素进行分析并运用层次分析法（AnalyticHierarchyProcess,AHP）对影响可听噪声的主要因素进行加权分析,以定量的形式确定影响因素的相对重要度。结果表明,应用层次分析法确定的可听噪声影响因素权重符合实际,准确性较高,为可听噪声选择主要影响因素用于预测及有效降低可听噪声提供参考依据。