基于鱼骨图和层次分析法的石油静电事故影响因素分析

针对石油静电事故影响因素的复杂性、多层次性和不确定性的特点,采用鱼骨图分析法,找出了引发石油静电事故的影响因素,确定出6个主因素、25个子因素的石油静电事故评价指标体系。应用层次分析法确定了各个影响因素的重要程度,分析出导致石油静电事故的重要因素。结果表明,6个主因素中,隶属于生产操作工艺和安全生产管理的操作错误、人体静电和接地故障3个主因素权重之和高达0.792,是引发石油静电事故的主导因素;子因素中预防的重点应放在喷溅式装卸油、化纤品与人体摩擦和接地线损坏方面。鱼骨图分析法和层次分析法的联合应用,合理地解决了石油静电事故影响因素分析难题,具有一定的推广应用价值。     

一种利用AIS数据计算受限水域内航标安全距离的方法

AIS数据详细记录了特定水域的船舶位置、船首向和尺寸等数据,可用于计算受限水域内航标安全距离。按一定标准网格化目标航标附近水域,统计周围航行的他船船体出现在每一个网格中的频数,形成他船航迹的网格频数图。按长度尺寸分类,将同类他船航迹网格频数图叠加,形成特定类型船舶的航迹网格频数图。按频数大小填充颜色,可清晰地显示航标附近他船安全通行状态下与航标保持的距离。实验选取上海港航标附近水域海量AIS数据,获取了60~79m,80~99m,100~129m,130~159m船舶航迹形成的网格频数图,结果显示,四类船舶距航标的安全距离随着他船长度的增大而增加,分别为50m,70m,110m,150m。     

基于HCNAM-BN的化工过程爆炸事故致因链分析

为了从源头上预防化工过程爆炸事故,依据风险耦合理论,探讨了各风险因子非线性耦合演化为爆炸事故的机理,构建了层次耦合网络分析模型（HCNAM）;从多因素风险耦合角度分析了国内外44起典型化工过程爆炸事故,统计了各风险因子之间的耦合概率并进行了耦合致因重要度分级;采用耦合概率与二态分布相结合的条件概率分布,将层次耦合网络分析模型转化为贝叶斯网络,并对氯乙烯单体槽爆炸性混合气体爆炸事故进行了应用研究。结果表明:91种双因子耦合风险状态中,47种呈现弱耦合致因特性;7种因子双耦合形成风险的概率较大;基于HCNAM-BN模型分析事故,可有效辨识事故最可能致因因素,获取各事故致因链的发生概率并确定事故网络关键节点。     

Physiochemical properties influencing biomass abundance and primary production in Lake Hoare, Antarctica

The perennially ice-covered, closed basin lakes in the McMurdo Dry Valleys respond rapidly to environmental changes, especially climate. For the past 15 years, the McMurdo Dry Valleys Long-Term Ecological Research (MCM-LTER) program has monitored the physical, chemical and biological properties of the lakes in Taylor Valley. In order to better assess the physiochemical controls on the biological process within one of these lakes (Lake Hoare), we have used vertical profile data to estimate depth-dependent correlations between various lake properties. Our analyses reveal the following results. Primary production rates (PPR) are strongly correlated to light (PAR) at 12-15 m and to soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) at 8-22 m. Chlorophyll-a (CHL) is also positively correlated to PAR at 14 m and greater depths, and SRP from 15 m and greater. This preliminary statistical analysis supports previous observations that both PAR and SRP play significant roles in driving plant growth in Lake Hoare. The lack of a strong relationship between bacterial production (BP) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is an intriguing result of the analysis.     

辽宁省农用地质量空间分布格局及影响因素研究

采用GIS技术、地统计学分析和景观生态学方法对辽宁省农用地质量的空间分布规律及其多样性、均匀度、集中度、优势度等进行研究,结果表明：辽宁省农用地质量的区域分异明显,等别表现出由辽西低山丘陵区和辽东山地丘陵区向中部平原区的递增规律。探讨农用地质量空间格局的影响因素,发现农用地自然质量空间分布格局主要受到地带性因素与大尺度的非地带性因素的控制,农用地利用质量和经济质量空间分布格局受到人类活动的影响显著。     

玻璃熔窑SCR烟气脱硝设计的影响因素分析

对影响玻璃熔窑SCR烟气脱硝设计的几个主要因素,如烟气条件（烟气量和NOx初始浓度）、还原剂、催化剂、SCR反应器布置方式及催化剂吹灰方式等进行了分析与讨论,指出在对玻璃熔窑进行SCR烟气脱硝设计时应根据燃料情况、烟气条件、生产工艺、环保法规及污染物减排要求等合理进行选择,以确保玻璃熔窑SCR烟气脱硝系统安全运行及工程投资、运行费用的经济合理性。     

生态清淤施工过程对巢湖水质影响的模拟

本研究以巢湖生态清淤为例,在水动力模型的基础上,采用平面二维恒定流和悬浮物扩散数学模型来描述生态清淤施工悬浮物的运动形态和排泥场尾水的影响。结果表明:生态清淤施工悬浮物扩散会给清淤区域内及周边约660 m范围的水体水质造成一定的影响。排泥场尾水排放口下游悬浮物最高浓度约4.8 mg/L,TN浓度最大增量约为0.164 mg/L,TP浓度最大增量约为0.004 mg/L。总体来说,尾水排放的SS、TN、TP对湖区的影响范围不大,其影响程度有限。     

降低总氮空白吸光值的因素探讨

为了有效控制总氮的空白吸光值,本文从容器的洗涤、实验用水、试剂纯度、样品的消解、后处理阶段等环节进行分析,通过科学实验,探讨了其影响因素,找到最佳条件：用1：3的硫酸清洗容器消除有机物的干扰,GR级的过硫酸钾和AR级的氢氧化钠分别进行溶解作为消解剂,控制消解的时间超过30分钟,最后用1：9的盐酸消除干扰,总氮的空白值可以控制在0.020之内。     

Estimating influence of stocking regimes on livestock grazing distributions

Livestock often concentrate grazing in particular regions of landscapes while partly or wholly avoiding other regions. Dispersing livestock from the heavily grazed regions is a central challenge in grazing land management. Position data gathered from GPS-collared livestock hold potential for increasing knowledge of factors driving livestock aggregation patterns, but advances in gathering the data have outpaced advancements in analyzing and learning from it. We fit a hierarchical seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model to explore how season of stocking and the location where cattle entered a pasture influenced grazing distributions. Stocking alternated between summer on one side of the pasture one year and fall on another side of the pasture the next year for 18 years. Waypoints were recorded on cattle for 50 d each year. We focused our analysis on the pasture's 10 most heavily grazed 4-ha units, because these units were the most prone to negative grazing impacts. Though grazing of the study units was always disproportionately heavy, it was much heavier with the summer than fall stocking regime: Bayesian confidence intervals indicate summer grazing of study units was approximately double the average fall grazing value. This is our core result, and it illustrates the strong effect stocking season or date or both can have on grazing distributions. We fit three additional models to explore the relative importance of stocking season versus location. According to this analysis, stocking season played a role, but stocking location was the main driver. Ostensibly minor factors (e.g. stocking location) can greatly influence livestock distributions.     

船舶溢油应急反应人的可靠性分析研究

为减小船舶溢油事故应急反应人员失误概率,提升应急处置效果,在对应急人员可靠性主要影响因素识别的基础上,利用模糊贝叶斯网络(BN)建立船舶溢油应急人的可靠性分析(HRA)模型,将应急反应流程抽象为可进行概率推算的BN,实现单个应急任务和全过程人的可靠性的量化评估,并依据该模型对一起船舶溢油事故进行实例研究。结果表明,首先模糊集值专家评估较好地解决应急人员可靠性情境依赖性强,难以量化评估的问题;其次,BN卓越的概率推理性能实现由单个应急任务向全过程人的可靠性的推算;最后得到应急反应人的可靠性主要取决于关键应急任务的完成情况和相关情境因素的影响。