煤矿开采对地下水环境的影响分析

煤炭开采工程应该把水文地质勘察工作与前期地质勘探工作结合进行,以查明基本的水文地质条件与相关参数;工程对地下水环境的影响应该按照煤矿类型、评价工作等级、保护目标、评价重点(水质、水量)进行分类确定,并根据相关分类,荻取相关参数选用不同的方法进行评价.     

“部分排序”在环境比较评价中的应用实例

将运筹学中“部分排序”的概念引入对污染物的环境影响比较评价中,以环境中常见的10种残留农药为应用实例,用Hasse图表示出比较评价的结果。和普遍排序技术相比,部分排序的评价结果简明直观、合理、可靠。Hasse图技术充分考虑了所要评价的各方面因素,避免了在普遍排序过程中由于确定评价模型中的权值而带来的主观因素的影响。     

Characteristics of the natural organic matter sorption affects of organic contaminants

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＲｅｃｅｎｔｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｈａｓｄｅｍｏｎｓｔｒａｔｅｄｔｈａｔｓｏｒｐｔｉｏｎｏｆｈｙｄｒｏｐｈｏｂｉｃｏｒｇａｎｉｃｃｏｍｐｏｕｎｄｓ(ＨＯＣ)ｉｎｓｏｉｌｓａｎｄｓｅｄｉｍｅｎｔｓｉｓｃｏｎｔｒｏｌｌｅｄｂｙｏｒｇａｎｉｃｍａｔｔｅｒｕｎｌｅｓｓｉｔｓｃｏｎｔｅｎｔｉｓｖｅｒｙｌｏｗ(Ｃｈｉｏｕ ,1 989) .Ｔｈｉｓｉｓｐａｒｔｉｃｕｌａｒｌｙｔｒｕｅｉｎｗａｔｅｒ ｓｏｉｌｓｙｓｔｅｍｓｂｅｃａｕｓｅｗａｔｅｒｍｏｌｅｃｕｌｅｓａｒｅｐｒｅｆｅｒａｂｌｙａｄｓｏｒｂｅｄ…     

浅谈油田开发项目事故风险环境影响和防治措施——以大庆太19区油田开发为例

通过对国内外油田开发的类比事故调查及资料分析，结合大庆太19区油田开采的实际情况，事故风险主要来自于钻井（井下作业）天然气集榆管线以及站场等工艺环节，危险其安全的潜在危险因素主要有自然灾害、腐蚀环境、误操作、设备缺陷、施工及人为破坏等问题。在油田开发过程中所发生的事故，不论是人为因素引起的还是自然灾害，其最终结果都是导致原油、天然气或含油污水的泄漏及火灾爆炸事故，并产生不同程度的环境风险，因此采取风险防治措施显得尤为重要。     

两栖动物种群衰退研究进展

过去50a中，全球范围内许多两栖动物种群显著衰退，一些种类已经灭绝．研究发现，这类现象的出现与人类活动日益加强密切相关，生态环境的破坏，污染的排放、气候的改变、野生动植物疾病的流行等因素是导致这一现象的主要原因.本文总结介绍了近年来国际上本领域的最新研究成果与动态，并对我国的研究现状和未来作了讨论．图1参40     

Bayesian estimation and consequence modelling of deliberately induced domino effects in process facilities

Process facilities handling hazardous chemicals in large quantities and elevated operating conditions of temperature/pressure are attractive targets to external attacks. The possibility of an external attack on a critical installation, performed with an intention of triggering escalation of primary incidents into secondary and tertiary incidents, thereby increasing the severity of consequences needs to be effectively analysed. A prominent Petrochemical Industry located in Kerala, India was identified for studying the possibility of a deliberately induced domino effect. In this study, a dedicated Bayesian network is developed to model the domino propagation sequence in the chemical storage area of the industry, and to estimate the domino probabilities at different levels. This method has the advantage of accurately quantifying domino occurrence probabilities and identifying possible higher levels of escalations. Moreover, the combined effect from multiple units can be modelled easily and new information can be added into the model as evidences to update the probabilities. Phast (Process hazard analysis) software is used for consequence modelling to determine the impact zones of the identified primary and secondary incidents. The results of the case study show that such analyses can greatly benefit green field and brown field projects in determining the appropriate safety and security measures to be implemented or strengthened so as to reduce its attractiveness to external threat agents.     

Probabilistic analysis of aluminium production explosion accidents based on a fuzzy Bayesian network

Explosion accidents of molten aluminium in contact with water during aluminium production often occur and may cause injury and death. In this paper, a fuzzy Bayesian network (BN) was employed to probabilistically analyse the explosion accident of molten aluminium in contact with water. A fault tree-Bayesian network (FT-BN) model was established in the cause-effect analysis of the explosion accident, including three processes: electrolysis, molten aluminium transportation and aluminium casting. Fifty-three nodes were proposed in the model to represent the evolution process of the explosion accident from failure causes to consequences. Furthermore, the occurrence probabilities of basic events (BEs) were determined by expert judgement with weighted treatments based on fuzzy theory. By giving certain occurrence probabilities of each BE, the probability of an explosion accident was estimated. Subsequently, importance measures were assessed for each BE, which could reflect the impact on the occurrence of the top event (TE), and the final ranks were provided. The results indicate that using wet ladles and tools, water on the ground, breakage of the tap hole, damage to the casting mould, and leakage of circulating water are five main problems that cause explosion accidents. Safety advice was provided based on the analysis results. This study can help decision makers improve the safety management of aluminium production.     

储气库注采管柱螺纹失效动态风险评估*

为解决储气库注采管柱螺纹失效问题,识别注采管柱螺纹失效致因与后果,基于蝴蝶结和贝叶斯网络方法构建注采管柱螺纹动态失效风险分析模型,采用模糊集理论计算模型变量先验概率,并评估注采管柱失效后果概率,从而推断注采管柱螺纹失效关键致因因素;引入先兆数据,评估注采管柱螺纹动态失效风险态势。结果表明:气体中携带固体颗粒、上螺纹速度过快、注采温度高、地层断裂等13个因素对螺纹失效风险影响较大;螺纹失效概率逐渐增大,螺纹失效后果也越来越严重,需要监控螺纹失效关键致因以降低螺纹失效的风险。     

基于贝叶斯估计的多探测器火警判定方法研究*

为应对感烟探测器的大量误报对消防应急响应带来的挑战,考虑目前以感烟探测器为主的火警设施误报率高且短期内难以全部更换的特点,提出基于贝叶斯估计的多探测器火警判定方法,通过多个探测器的报警时间间隔计算火源位置的后验概率分布,并提出火警真实度概念,为火警判定提供依据。结果表明:使用多探测器耦合模型时每增加1个探测器可将误报率降低约4个数量级,该方法在探测器正常、部分失效、误报的情景下均能有效判别火警。     

环境监测在环境影响评价中的影响分析

环境监测贯穿于整个环境影响评价体系中,环境影响评价中的评价初期、建设期、运行期以及后评价期,均由环境监测数据来支撑结果,是环境影响评价的技术基础,同时具有较强的监督功能。