湖滨河口湿地中磷的输移转化机制及截留效应研究进展

湖滨河口湿地对湖泊的水质与生态健康有重要影响,但其对营养物质的截留效应亦备受争议.因此深入了解营养物质在湿地"水-底泥-植物"中的输移转化过程,明确导致湿地"源-汇"功能转换的主要驱动机制与关键影响因子具有重要意义.本文以磷(P)为对象,分析了水文过程的变异性对湖滨河口湿地的影响,综述了湿地截磷的植物机制、微生物机制及"上覆水-底泥"界面过程,比较了短期和长期机制的差异;识别了湿地截P的重要影响因素及其交互反馈过程,主要包括水文条件、底泥理化性质、离子含量、水生植物种类等;总结了目前已开展的野外监测、室内培养、吸附等温线、统计分析、机理模型等研究方法,提出未来需将湿地水文模型与生态模型相结合,用于识别和评估磷在湿地"水-底泥-植物"系统中的输移关键过程及截留效应.     

Strategic Rat Control for Restoring Populations of Native Species in Forest Fragments

Forest fragments have biodiversity value that may be enhanced through management such as control of non‐native predators. However, such efforts may be ineffective, and research is needed to ensure that predator control is done strategically. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate fragment‐specific effects of experimental rat control on a native species targeted for recovery in a New Zealand pastoral landscape. The experiment was a modified BACI (before‐after‐control‐impact) design conducted over 6 years in 19 forest fragments with low‐density subpopulations of North Island Robins (Petroica longipes). The aim was to identify individual fragments that not only showed clear benefits of rat control, but also would have a high probability of subpopulation growth even if they were the only fragment managed. We collected data on fecundity, adult and juvenile survival, and juvenile emigration, and modeled the data in an integrated framework to estimate the expected annual growth rate (λ) of each subpopulation with and without rat control. Without emigration, subpopulation growth was estimated as marginal (λ = 0.95–1.05) or negative (λ = 0.74–0.90) without rat control, but it was estimated as positive in all fragments (λ = 1.4–2.1) if rats were controlled. This reflected a 150% average increase in fecundity and 45% average increase in adult female survival. The probability of a juvenile remaining in its natal fragment was 0.37 on average, but varied with fragment connectivity. With juvenile emigration added, 6 fragments were estimated to have a high (>0.8) probability of being self‐sustaining (λ > 1) with rat control. The key factors affecting subpopulation growth rates under rat control were low connectivity and stock fencing because these factors were associated with lower juvenile emigration and higher fecundity, respectively. However, there was also substantial random variation in adult survival among fragments, illustrating the importance of hierarchical modeling for fragmentation studies. Control Estratégico de Ratas para Restaurar Poblaciones de Especies Nativas en Fragmentos de Bosque     

Cost‐effective conservation of an endangered frog under uncertainty

How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well‐developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one‐time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost‐effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost‐effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost‐effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost‐effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost‐effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost‐effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost‐effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost‐effective conservation under uncertainty.     

Guided group discussion and the reported use of toxic products: The persuasiveness of hearing others’ views

Guided group discussion ( [Lewin et?al., 1952] , [Werner, 2003] and [Werner and Adams, 2001] ) was used to persuade groups to replace their toxic home and garden chemicals with nontoxic alternatives. We hypothesized that discussion would allow participants to hear others endorse the new information, and this normative information would facilitate persuasion. Approximately two months after the group discussion, we obtained questionnaires from the organizer of the meeting and a member of the group who had missed the meeting because of another obligation (i.e., not because of disinterest in the topic). Most organizers were female and analyses were limited to females. This quasi-experimental matched control group design indicated that those who attended the meeting were more favorable towards using nontoxics and more interested in sharing leftover toxic products with friends (instead of discarding them). Path and mediation analyses showed that the organizer’s evaluation of the meeting predicted her final attitude, and perceptions that the group endorsed the material (perceived group norm) partially mediated this relationship. A second mediation analysis showed that evaluation of the meeting predicted intention to share leftover toxics and this relationship was fully mediated by the organizer’s impression that the group would also share leftovers. The results support the idea that persuasion is based both on individual evaluation and normative influence, especially when people are not confident others will accept the behavior, such as sharing leftover toxic products.     

‘Ecomálaga’: an ecosystem analysis of the Mediterranean coast around Málaga, Spain

In October 1992, the Oceanographic Centre of Málaga of the Spanish Oceanographical Institute (IEO) started a monitoring project,Ecomálaga, which collects physical, chemical, biological and sedimentological data from the Alborán Sea shelf. The project is coordinated with similar projects in the Atlantic and Mediterranean Centres of IEO. The ultimate objective is to, understand the long-term changes of the essential marine-environmental parameters. So far, nine quarterly surveys have been carried out—from October 1992 to December 1994. The following variables were registered:abiotic: location weather, water temperature, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a, nitrate, nitrite, phosphate, silicate,biotic: zooplankton biomass and species composition, and ichthyoplankton. The granulometric composition and organic matter content of sediments are also included. Data are stored in a computerized data base named Ecomálaga Data Base, with contributions from geology, physics, plankton biology and marine chemistry. The data base not only contains separate files for each research topic, but also allows for interchange between these files, resulting in a synoptic data output. It offers the users an output in the form of synthetic records of each station sampled. The analysis of the data indicates seasonal influences and ainshore-offshore gradient, as well as an Atlantic influence on the stations located in the transect closest to the Strait of Gibraltar.     

Watershed development in India. 2. New approaches for managing externalities and meeting sustainability requirements

This paper recognises the need for a revision of watershed development policy in India in relation to the planning of development interventions involving agricultural intensification and rainwater harvesting and the need for new approaches to assist the planning process. Building on, and using as an example, the results of biophysical and societal impact studies carried out on two watershed development projects in Karnataka three new management/dissemination tools, are suggested. These are (1) the web-based geographical information systems exploratory, climate land assessment and impact management tool dissemination tool for disseminating to policymakers and non-specialist stakeholders the downstream impacts of watershed interventions, (2) the ‘quadrant’ approach for ensuring that sustainability criteria are met and (3) Bayesian networks to investigate the biophysical and societal impacts of interventions. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue     

Bayesian estimation of age-specific bird nest survival rates with categorical covariates

The populations of many North American landbirds are showing signs of declining. Gathering information on breeding productivity allows critical assessment of population performance and helps identify good habitat-management practices. He (Biometrics (2003) 59 962–973) proposed a Bayesian model to estimate the age-specific nest survival rates. The model allows irregular visiting schedule under the assumption that the observed nests have homogeneous nest survival. Because nest survival studies are often conducted in different sites and time periods, it is not realistic to assume homogeneous nest survival. In this paper, we extend He’s model by incorporating these factors as categorical covariates. The simulation results show that the Bayesian hierarchical model can produce satisfactory estimates on nest survival and capture different factor effects. Finally the model is applied to a Missouri red-winged blackbird data set.     

Risk assessment of chemical process considering dynamic probability of near misses based on Bayesian theory and event tree analysis

With the development of modern automatic control systems, chemical accidents are of low frequency in most chemical plants, but once an accident happens, it often causes serious consequences. Near-misses are the precursor of accidents. As the process progresses, near misses caused by abnormal fluctuation of process variables may eventually lead to accidents. However, variables that may lead to serious consequences in the production process cannot update the risk in the life cycle of the process by traditional risk assessment methods, which do not pay enough attention to the near misses. Therefore, this paper proposed a new method based on Bayesian theory to dynamically update the probability of key variables associated with process failure risk and obtain the risk change of the near-misses. This article outlines the proposed approach and uses a chemical process of styrene production to demonstrate the application. In this chemical process, the key variables include flow rate, liquid level, pressure and temperature. In order to study the dynamic risk of the chemical process with consideration of near misses, according to the accumulated data of process variables, firstly the abnormal probability of the variables and the failure rate of safety systems associated with the variables were updated with time based on Bayesian theory. On the basis of the dynamic probability of key process variables, an event tree of possible consequences caused by variable anomalies was established. From the logical relationship of the event tree, the probability of different consequences can be obtained. The results show that the proposed risk assessment method based on Bayesian theory can overcome the shortcomings of traditional analysis methods. It shows the dynamic characteristics of the probability of different near misses, and achieves the dynamic risk analysis of chemical process accidents.     

用环境同位素研究灰场灰水对周围地下水的影响

应用环境同位素理论,根据燃煤火电厂灰场灰水中的氢、氧、硫同位素与天然地下水中的氢、氧、硫同位素存在的差异,建立了鉴别天然地下水和灰水的方法,并研究了灰场灰水对周围地下水的影响程度、范围和主要途径,为今后开展灰场对周围地下水影响的研究,确定地下水是否受到污染,提供了一条新的研究途径.      

聚氯乙烯生产过程中大气污染物的产生及治理措施

通过对聚氯乙烯生产工艺的分析,说明聚氯乙烯生产过程中主要污染物氯乙烯单体的产生部位和特点,在此基础上分析其治理措施情况,最终提出高效、可行、且易操作的治理措施。