Optimization of the Resources Management in Fighting Wildfires

Wildfires lead to important economic, social, and environmental losses, especially in areas of Mediterranean climate where they are of a high intensity and frequency. Over the past 30 years there has been a dramatic surge in the development and use of fire spread models. However, given the chaotic nature of environmental systems, it is very difficult to develop real-time fire-extinguishing models. This article proposes a method of optimizing the performance of wildfire fighting resources such that losses are kept to a minimum. The optimization procedure includes discrete simulation algorithms and Bayesian optimization methods for discrete and continuous problems (simulated annealing and Bayesian global optimization). Fast calculus algorithms are applied to provide optimization outcomes in short periods of time such that the predictions of the model and the real behavior of the fire, combat resources, and meteorological conditions are similar. In addition, adaptive algorithms take into account the chaotic behavior of wildfire so that the system can be updated with data corresponding to the real situation to obtain a new optimum solution. The application of this method to the Northwest Forest of Madrid (Spain) is also described. This application allowed us to check that it is a helpful tool in the decision-making process.     

溴阻燃剂对环境安全性的影响

溴阻燃剂(Brominated fire retardants,BFRs)的生产和使用对人类自身健康及其居住环境的影响问题,特别是“二恶英”(Dioxins)的问题,已引起全球范围广泛的重视。欧盟“限制电子电器产品中有害物质”的指令(RoHS)明确规定限制某些溴阻燃剂的使用。笔者就溴阻燃剂近十年来在空气、下水道淤泥和沉积物等非生命环境体系以及动物和人等生命体系的分布情况进行了综合分析,结果发现溴阻燃剂在非生命和生命环境体系中均有增加的趋势。对溴阻燃剂在生物体内的富集和放大作用研究发现,部分溴阻燃剂会在生物体内富集并表现出一定的放大作用。笔者对我国阻燃剂的发展方向提出了见解和建议。     

Dynamic Modeling of Ground‐Water Quality Using Bayesian Techniques1

Abstract: Water industry experts have been arguing that the traditional techniques are not an accurate means of measuring water contamination. This is mainly because these techniques emphasize neither the stochastic nature of the water contamination process nor the precision and the accuracy of the tested methods used by environmental laboratories. In this work, we describe the development and application of prototype Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) that model ground‐water quality to determine the impact of chemical contaminants on ground‐water quality in the Salalah area, which is allocated to the south of Oman. We also present a new technique for data pre‐processing because it is needed for the treatment of ground‐water datasets that are used as the data source to learn the probabilities for dynamic decision models. Among more than 20 wells in area, only four wells were selected to be analyzed and the results show that we achieved an acceptable level of efficiency.     

AN ANALYSIS OF REGION‐OF‐INFLUENCE METHODS FOR FLOOD REGIONALIZATION IN THE GULF‐ATLANTIC ROLLING PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: Region‐of‐influence (RoI) approaches for estimating stream flow characteristics at ungaged sites were applied and evaluated in a case study of the 50‐year peak discharge in the Gulf‐Atlantic Rolling Plains of the southeastern United States. Linear regression against basin characteristics was performed for each ungaged site considered based on data from a region of influence containing the n closest gages in predictor variable (PRoI) or geographic (GRoI) space. Augmentation of this count based cutoff by a distance based cutoff also was considered. Prediction errors were evaluated for an independent (split‐sampled) dataset. For the dataset and metrics considered here: (1) for either PRoI or GRoI, optimal results were found when the simpler count based cutoff, rather than the distance augmented cutoff, was used; (2) GRoI produced lower error than PRoI when applied indiscriminately over the entire study region; (3) PRoI performance improved considerably when Rol was restricted to predefined geographic subregions.     

层次性通风网络平衡图的自动生成

风网平衡图是矿井通风管理的一种重要手段。笔者首次创造性的提出层次性的风网平衡图 ,把风网平衡图做成一个具有层次图形显示、连续双向查询、自动优化网络、数据管理的图形数据库。利用VLISP语言在AutoCAD平台上开发一套矿井通风平衡图的层次性生成及优化软件 ,可以扩展AutoCAD的数据接口、充分发挥它的图形功能、数据管理功能 ,使通风网络平衡图成为一个具有自动优化功能的数据库系统。软件具有可视化、自动风网优化、数据管理、效率高的特点     

浅议公路建设开发中对社会生态环境的影响

公路建设作为国家基础设施建设发展迅速。公路建设对社会经济的发展贡献巨大，然而当公路建成后便捷的交通对加剧人口迁移流动造成的社会生态环境影响，却没有引起有关部门的足够重视，尤其在干旱地区脆弱的生态环境下，这种影响更为深远。本文分析了这种不利影响并提出了防治对策和建议。     

家装对室内空气的影响及防治对策

随着经济的发展，室内装修已经成为人们改善生活条件，提高生活质量的一种时尚。室内环境在满足使用功能的同时，对人体健康是否有利，是否满足环保要求，已成为公众普遍关注的热点。本文阐述了室内主要污染物的来源及对人体健康的危害，并提出了减少室内装修污染的对策。     

自然灾害对深圳城市建设发展的影响

随着灾害科学研究的深入，城市自然灾害已经成为其重要的研究领域。对于快速城市化的深圳，其自然灾害方面的研究更有必要。深圳市的自然灾害主要有气象灾害、地质灾害和海洋灾害等3类，它们是自然变异因素与人类活动共同作用的结果。在深圳的建设发展中，自然灾害的影响表现在两个方面：一是限制了土地利用和开发的规模，加大了城市土地开发利用的成本；二是对城市的经济建设造成了危害，使深圳的生态环境和工程地质条件造成退化。最后针对深圳市自然灾害的特点，阐述了它们的防治原则。     

GEOSTATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF HORIZONTAL HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY FOR THE KIRKWOOD‐COHANSEY AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT: The Kirkwood‐Cohansey aquifer has been identified as a critical source for meeting existing and expected water supply needs for southern New Jersey. Several contaminated sites exist in the region; their impact on the aquifer has to be evaluated using ground water flow and transport models. Ground water modeling depends on availability of measured hydrogeologic data (e.g., hydraulic conductivity, for parameterization of the modeling runs). However, field measurements of such critical data have inadequate spatial density, and their locations are often clustered. The goal of this study was to research, compile, and geocode existing data, then use geostatistics and advanced mapping methods to develop a map of horizontal hydraulic conductivity for the Kirkwood‐Cohansey aquifer. Spatial interpolation of horizontal hydraulic conductivity measurements was performed using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) Method implemented in the BMELib code library. This involved the integration of actual measurements with soft information on likely ranges of hydraulic conductivity at a given location to obtain estimate maps. The estimation error variance maps provide an insight into the uncertainty associated with the estimates, and indicate areas where more information on hydraulic conductivity is required.     

MODELING DRINKING WATER QUALITY VIOLATIONS WITH BAYESIAN NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Compliance violations at community water systems are rare but represent significant human health risks. These risks are mediated by the decision schema of human operators at water treatment facilities. However, causal uncertainty among physical and human factors involved in water quality problems complicates assessment of their probability and severity. This study uses a probabilistic Bayesian network modeling approach to explore the causes of compliance violations in a sample of water treatment systems in Pennsylvania. The model presented here is one of several created by treatment system operators during an expert elicitation process. The expert model alone predicts violations poorly, suggesting that experts make inaccurate quantitative estimates. However, Bayesian networks are capable of combining the subjective expertise of treatment system operators with the objective compliance histories of the facilities they manage, and the expert model accurately predicts violations when trained with historical compliance data. Analysis of the trained network reveals those components of the treatment process, including environmental and system characteristics as well as operator decisions, that play the greatest role in determining the likelihood of major violation types. Among operator decisions, coagulant dosing and filter backwash frequency are the most important determinants of violation likelihood.