油气管道伴行光缆失效统计及对策措施研究

油气管道伴行光缆在油气运输中起着十分重要的作用。由于外部环境的突发性、复杂性、不可控性,导致伴行光缆管理困难、混乱,断缆事件经常发生,给油气管道运输带来较大损失。本文以某公司为例,以2012~2018年光缆断裂事故数据为依托,运用鱼刺图方法梳理出光缆失效的4大原因类别,并应用故障树分析法对光缆失效进行分析,从最小割(径)集、结构重要度方面对光缆失效因素分析,并针对不同的危害因素提出合理的风险管控措施,构建光缆失效保护层,为今后油气管道伴行光缆风险管控提供指导。     

基于贝叶斯网络的事故多级多米诺效应计算方法研究

为了更合理地分析事故风险,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的多级多米诺效应计算方法及其计算步骤,并从个人风险和社会风险2个角度,定量分析了生产安全事故的多级多米诺效应。同时以某企业的2个汽油罐区为例,运用上述方法对其生产安全事故的多米诺效应进行定量计算,并将计算结果与未考虑多米诺效应、仅考虑一级多米诺效应时的计算结果进行比较。研究结果表明:基于贝叶斯网络的计算方法,同时考虑了多级多米诺效应和事故的协同效应,可以使计算的个人风险和社会风险更接近于实际。     

The characteristics of young Indigenous drink drivers in Queensland,Australia

Objective: This study investigates the prevalence and characteristics of first drink driving convictions among young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) Australians (aged from 14 to 24) and considers some of the risk factors associated with recidivism.

Methods: Convictions recorded between 2006 and 2013 were extracted from the Queensland Department of Justice and Attorney General database. Convictions were regrouped by gender, age, Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia classification, and sentence severity. Chi-square analyses and logistic regression were conducted to identify group differences in offense characteristics for gender and recidivism (recidivists versus nonrecidivists).

Results: The sample consisted of 1,583 individuals (74.1% males) convicted in the 8-year period. Gender comparisons showed that there was no significant difference in age at time of first offense, blood alcohol concentration (BAC) level at apprehension, or type of penalty received between males and females. However, males received larger fines and longer periods of license disqualification. Comparisons for reoffending and non-reoffending revealed that males, drivers aged 14–17 years of age and 18 to 20 years of age, and inner regional drivers were more likely to reoffend.

Conclusions: There were limited differences between females and males or recidivists and nonrecidivists at first conviction. Convictions for drink driving may provide an opportunity for early alcohol intervention with Indigenous young drivers (<20 years) because it is likely to be an individual's first alcohol-related conviction.     

辅助驾驶中的换道决策安全研究

换道是驾驶员达到快速通行目标的一种常用手段,但换道会带来很多公路交通事故。为有效避免交通事故,需给驾驶员提供换道安全预警。构建了安全换道决策模型,将换道决策分为换道意图识别和换道条件判断分别建立模型以提高预测精确度。通过神经网络方法SOM(Self-Organization-Map)聚类及BP(Back Propagation)建立换道意图识别模型,基于贝叶斯理论建立最小风险贝叶斯换道条件判别模型。模型开发和测试采用车辆轨迹数据集(NGSIM),提取数据中的换道行为特征参数作为模型的输入,将驾驶员换道决策预测视为输入变量的函数。通过对比最小贝叶斯和最小风险贝叶斯方法发现,由后者构建的换道条件判别模型效果较好,对于不换道行为的预测精度为90.4%,换道行为的预测精度为73.8%。鉴于错误的换道决策可能导致交通事故,而错误的不换道决策只会导致失去一次换道的机会,在换道辅助系统中,不换道决策的精确度要求需高于换道决策的精度。最后,在微观交通仿真系统中加入换道决策模型,其结果验证换道决策安全。最小风险贝叶斯换道条件判别模型的引入,使得换道决策系统能够通过修正风险系数,进一步提高换道判别精度,减少不安全的换道概率。     

广东省火电污染物排放特征及其对大气环境的影响

采用物料衡算及排放因子法建立了2012年广东省火电大气污染物排放(下称火电排放)清单,并运用WRF/SMOKE/CAMx模型分析火电排放对大气环境质量的影响. 结果表明:SO₂、NO_x、CO、PM₁₀、PM_2.5、VOCs和NH₃排放量分别为269 408、539 565、301 257、135 920、65 050、18 790、1 949 t. 300 MW以上的机组对火电排放的贡献较大,但125 MW以下的机组单位煤耗污染物排放较高. 春季、夏季、秋季、冬季火电排放所占比例分别为27.1%、25.4%、24.0%和23.5%,24 h排放呈“三峰三谷”特征;排放量较大的城市为广州、佛山、东莞、江门、汕头、潮州和梅州,不同区域火电排放贡献率顺序为珠三角 (46.2%~52.3%)>广东省东部(26.9%~34.3%)>广东省西部(11.9%~14.4%)>广东省北部(5.5%~10.0%). 8月火电排放对珠三角城市ρ(SO₂)、ρ(NO₂)月均值的贡献率较高,分别为17.0%、11.1%,其次为10月、4月、1月,其影响集中于火电厂所在城市及下风向区域,对不同城市的贡献差异性较大,具有局地特征;火电排放10月对ρ(PM₁₀)、ρ(PM_2.5)月均值贡献率(9.1%、10.6%)较高,其次为8月、4月和1月,影响区域更广,对不同城市的贡献差异较小,呈现区域性特征.      

尾矿坝溃决泥浆运动机制及其预测模型研究

以尾矿溃坝砂流下游演进动力学过程为研究重点,综合运用水文学及水动力学等运动理论和数值计算方法,建立描述尾矿坝溃决泥浆运动的数学模型,采用VOF模型对溃坝后的砂流运动过程进行数值模拟。以某溃决尾矿坝为例,对溃坝后下泄砂流演进过程进行模拟,模拟得到的最终影响范围及泥深均与该溃决尾矿坝溃后的现场观测结果相吻合,证明了模拟的有效性和正确性。     

生活饮用水阻垢剂硅磷晶阻垢性能的实验研究

采用静态阻垢法对硅磷晶阻垢剂的阻垢性能进行分析,通过单因素与正交试验探讨了阻垢剂在不同加药浓度、Ca2+浓度、温度、p H等环境条件下的阻垢效果及最佳使用条件。结果表明:阻垢效果最佳组合为:加药浓度2 mg/L,Ca2+浓度300 mg/L,温度30℃,p H=8。各因素对阻垢率影响大小顺序依次为:温度加药浓度p HCa2+浓度。在此优化组合条件下,硅磷晶阻垢率最大可达95%,用于某制药厂生活饮用水的阻垢率可达94%,效果明显,具有良好的阻垢性能。     

Driver injury severity related to inclement weather at highway–rail grade crossings in the United States

Objective: Previous studies on crash modeling at highway–rail grade crossings were aimed at exploring the factors that are likely to increase the crash frequencies at highway–rail grade crossings. In recent years, modeling driver's injury severity at highway–rail grade crossings has received interest. Because there were substantial differences among different weather conditions for driver's injury severity, this study attempts to explore the impact of weather influence on driver injury at highway–rail grade crossing.

Method: Utilizing the most recent 10 years (2002–2011) of highway–rail grade crossing accident data, this study applied a mixed logit model to explore the determinants of driver injury severity under different weather conditions at highway–rail grade crossing.

Results: Analysis results indicate that drivers' injury severity at highway–rail grade crossings is strongly different for different weather conditions. It was found that the factors significantly impacting driver injury severity at highway–rail grade crossings include motor vehicle speed, train speed, driver's age, gender, area type, lighting condition, highway pavement, traffic volume, and time of day.

Conclusions: The findings of this study indicate that crashes are more prevalent if vehicle drivers are driving at high speed or the oncoming trains are high speed. Hence, a reduction in speed limit during inclement weather conditions could be particularly effective in moderating injury severity, allowing more reaction time for last-minute maneuvering and braking in moments before impacts. In addition, inclement weather-related crashes were more likely to occur in open areas and highway–rail grade crossings without pavement and lighting. Paved highway–rail grade crossings with installation of lights could be particularly effective in moderating injury severity.     

土壤中微囊藻毒素MC-LR的降解研究

微囊藻毒素(MCs)是蓝藻水华污染产生的一类生物毒素,通过灌溉、施肥等途径进入农田土壤,对农产品质量和地下水安全造成危害,进而影响人体健康.其中MC-LR是毒性较大、检出较普遍的藻毒素之一.本文通过模拟实验,研究了MC-LR在土壤中的生物降解行为及其影响因素.结果表明,MC-LR为易降解有机污染物,土壤理化性质可影响其在土壤中的降解行为,呈现土壤pH越低、阳离子交换量越大,MC-LR老化系数越大,降解越慢的特征.然而,初始浓度对MC-LR的降解没有影响.微生物降解是土壤中MC-LR降解的主要途径,温度、含水率等环境因素对MC-LR降解的影响主要在于改变土壤中降解微生物的活性.研究结果为评估土壤中MC-LR的生态风险提供了依据.