海上油田开发对海洋环境的影响——以涠洲油田为例

油田开发给人们带来重要能源和化工原料的同时,不可避免地会产生各种污染物,特别是海上石油的开发,由于其开发难度及事故风险较大,且环境管理与治理困难,往往更容易造成环境的污染.本文以涠洲油田为例,通过对油田的产污行为及其对油田周围环境的影响评价,揭示油田对水质、沉积物及生物的不利影响.结果显示由于生产水、泥浆钻屑、生活污水、落地原油等大量的排海,造成涠洲油田部分水质已出现石油类等轻微超标,沉积物在平台周边已有较明显的石油累积现象出现,底栖生物出现贝类和鱼类Pb超标,尤以贝类为甚.     

Bayesian networks based laboratory retrofitting towards inherent safety: A risk-based implementation framework

Over the years, a number of high-profile laboratory accidents involving severe injuries, fatalities, and economic losses have been reported, prompting a significant increase in efforts towards laboratory safety. However, the dominant safety measures rely excessively on add-on safeguards such as sprinklers and respirators and pay little attention to reducing the hazardous factors at their sources. This study introduced the inherent safety concept to minimize laboratory hazards and developed a dedicated implementation tool called Generic Laboratory Safety Metric (GLSM). The Traditional Laboratory Safety Checklist (TLSC) was first used to represent the safety indicators, and then the Precedence Chart (PC) and Bayesian Networks (BN) methods were used to reconcile the safety indicators to develop the GLSM. The developed GLSM was subsequently demonstrated through a case study of a university laboratory. The results revealed that the safety level increased from 2.44 to 3.52 after the risk-based inherently safer retrofitting, thus creating laboratory conditions with a relatively satisfactory safety level. This work presented a set of generic solutions to laboratory retrofitting towards inherent safety with a novel GLSM as the implementation tool. The proposed GLSM would contribute to risk quantification and identification of key risk factors for assigning targeted and fundamental safety measures to achieve inherently safer laboratories.     

Integration of fuzzy reliability analysis and consequence simulation to conduct risk assessment

Losses of containment within the natural gas network, located in most populated areas, could cause environmental damage, injuries, or even death. Accordingly, it is pivotal to adopt proper approaches to assess and mitigate the risk arising from potential losses. Within this context, it is required to exploit solid reliability and consequence analysis techniques. To this end, this paper presents a methodology established on the integration of a Fuzzy Bayesian Network and consequence simulation. The Bayesian Network is more flexible and realistic than classic approaches because it can consider conditional probabilities and prior information. Furthermore, Leaky Noisy-OR Gates are exploited to allow an easier filling of the Conditional Probability Tables. This task is performed through expert elicitation, adopting Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set Theory and Similarity Aggregation Method. Finally, the severity analysis is performed via a software, named Safeti, which provides an accurate evaluation of the consequences. To show the applicability of the framework, a pressure regulator of a Natural Gas Regulating and Metering Station is considered as case study. The proposed approach can assist asset managers in evaluating the risk arising from the operations, and, accordingly, it can guide them in making maintenance-related decisions to assure the safety of the operations.     

Modelling of heating furnace fire scenarios using fault tree analysis,a bayesian network,and a thermal transfer method for system reliability analysis

Energy production for oil companies requires high-performance equipment. However, after a certain period of use, this equipment could be damaged, causing numerous problems and defects, impeding production, and leading to incidents that may cause material and human losses. Therefore, it is necessary to master the performance parameters of each equipment, which are key indicators of its functionality and can indicate the possibility of reusing it after inspection and diagnosis. However, it is worth noting that the studied system is a vertical cylindrical furnace in Algeria's refinery. This paper describes a new hybrid approach, a methodology that evaluates system reliability by combining two studies. The first is based on the surety of the system's functioning through an analysis with a fault tree to identify the risks, followed by a quantitative analysis using a Bayesian method. The second study follows the thermal calculation of the equipment's performance parameters, namely: the thermal efficiency (η), heat transfer coefficient (h), and heat absorbed quantity (Q), using heat balance equations to quantify the heat absorbed quantity and identify the fluid flow regime inside the tube. The calculation considers three cases: The design case, the failure case, and the after renovation case. The originality of this work appears when the collected findings from the second study are fed into the first study's Bayesian Network (BN) to analyse the system's reliability using the calculated parameters. Then, BN is used to calculate the Probabilistic Importance Factors (PIFs) in order to identify the most impactful system components. Finally, a prediction analysis was conducted. The latter reveals that one of the furnace's major faults is the fumes accumulation inside the combustion chamber. Corrosion, overheating, coke formation inside the tubes, dumper deformation, and burner tip clogging all contribute to this fault.     

宁波市春节期间水溶性离子污染来源和特征分析

利用在线气体及气溶胶检测系统对宁波市春节期间痕量气体和水溶性离子组分进行观测,结合气象要素,分析研究细颗粒物中水溶性离子污染来源和组分特征.观测期间ρ(PM2.5)平均值为33.1 μg·m-3,存在轻度污染.水溶性离子浓度大小排序为:NO3-＞SO42-＞NH4+＞K+＞Cl-＞Na+＞Ca2+＞Mg2+,二次无机离...     

长江经济带污水处理设施减排效率与影响因素研究

污水处理设施作为废水排放的处理终端,在区域水环境治理的过程中发挥关键作用。本文以长江经济带沿线1117座污水处理设施为样本,以单位污水处理能耗作为污水处理设施的投入变量,BOD5等污染物的削减率作为产出变量,在考虑各类污染物对环境造成的异质性影响下利用WSBM模型对污水处理设施的减排效率进行测度,并运用CLAD模型对影响污水处理设施减排效率的外部因素进行研究。结果表明:长江经济带污水处理设施综合减排效率较低且差异较大,设施单位污水处理能耗冗余率较高以及对总磷污染物减排效果不理想是制约其减排效率提高的重要因素;长江经济带污水处理设施的减排纯技术效率总体呈现"东高西低",以上海、湖南、云南三省份形成"三极"的空间分布特征,而设施减排规模效率则呈现出"中部高、东西低"的空间分布格局;设施减排效率外部影响因素的驱动效应差异明显,并据此提出了排水管网合理规划、推进新型城镇化建设等对策建议。     

多环芳烃蒽、屈在水体中的光解动力学模拟研究

研究了紫外光和太阳光下蒽、在甲醇一水溶液中的光分解反应结果表明,水中较低浓度葱、的光解表观上呈一级反应动力学规律,微观上是二级反应的加和蒽和的光解速率常数随着温度升高、光照距离减小及水中溶解氧增加而增大,但与水中急和宏的初始浓度无关黄浦江沉积物作为悬浮物加入后蒽和的光解效率下降对蒽和光解速率的比较分析表明,多环芳烃光解速率常数与受光解物质的结构特性有关     

基于飞行剖面的航空器试飞活动空管风险研究

为明确空中交通管理风险对航空器适航试飞活动不安全事件的影响,首先,依据航空器试飞科目绘制相应飞行剖面;其次,基于试飞活动飞行剖面,分析管制单位试飞保障流程,提取管制运行风险对试飞活动的影响因素;采用事故树分析法(FTA)分析事故发展过程,将事件和逻辑关系映射至贝叶斯网络(BN),依据国内外民航空管不安全事件分类统计结果...     

人民币汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响研究

随着我国加入WTO和对外开放水平的提高,人民币汇率变动对我国甚至世界贸易都会产生重大影响,因而越来越多地受到各方面的关注.笔者结合当前人民币汇率制度改革的发展历程,分析测定人民币汇率变动对我国贸易的影响并提出了政策建议.表2,参10.     

湿法烟气脱硫系统中影响脱硫效率的关键参数

湿法烟气脱硫作为一种相对成熟、脱硫效率较高的脱硫技术,得到了广泛的应用。结合贵州纳雍电厂4×300MW机组工程烟气脱硫工程,对燃煤电厂湿式石灰石-石膏脱硫系统的各种因素进行了理论分析,设置不同的影响因素,使之达到最佳的脱硫效率。