应用in vitro法评估土壤性质对土壤中Pb的生物可给性的影响

选取22种典型土壤样品,应用2种in vitro(体外模拟)试验方法——SBET法(simple bioaccessibility extraction test,生物有效性简化提取法)和PBET法(physiologically-based extraction test,生物原理提取法),定量阐明土壤性质对Pb的生物可给性的影响. 结果表明:①SBET法中Pb的生物可给性为18.78%~77.08%,平均值为44.14%;PBET法中Pb的生物可给性为0.72%~50.51%,平均值为13.77%. 除赤红壤和贵州黄壤外,其余20种土壤样品均表现为SBET法中Pb的生物可给性显著高于PBET法,并且随着土壤pH的增长,2种方法的差距更加显著. ②逐步回归分析结果表明,在SBET法中,对土壤Pb的生物可给性影响最大的因子是土壤中w(黏粒),其次为pH,二者可以解释69.49%的Pb的生物可给性的变化;在PBET法中,对土壤Pb的生物可给性影响最大的因子是pH,其次为w(黏粒),二者可以解释73.65%的Pb的生物可给性的变化. 研究结果说明,污染土壤中Pb的生物可给性可以根据土壤pH和w(黏粒)进行预测.      

基于贝叶斯网络的地震次生燃气管道泄漏事件链构建

地震次生燃气管道泄漏事件是导致地震灾害影响扩大的主要原因之一,为了解建 筑物内地震次生燃气管道泄漏事件的发展过程,参考国内外相关的文献和统计资料,确 定建筑物内地震次生燃气管道泄漏事件贝叶斯网络的节点变量和取值范围。根据节点变 量及其逻辑关联性构建贝叶斯网络结构图,通过对国内外研究数据的统计并结合专家经 验估算确定各节点变量的条件概率。利用贝叶斯网络工具计算建筑物属性和环境变量在 不同状态取值下建筑物遭受破坏、燃气泄漏、燃气扩散引发二次灾害等关键节点变量的 后验概率。通过实例分析得出,建筑结构和地震烈度是建筑物遭受破坏的主要影响因素 ,风速、大气稳定度对燃气扩散引发二次灾害有显著影响。     

物流基地危险货物储区外部安全防护距离研究

在物流基地规划建设中,危险货物储区外部安全防护距离的设定是很重要的一个组成部分。针对危险货物储区化学爆炸与毒气泄漏事故影响范围大、后果严重等特点,先应用鱼刺图事故分析原理分析危险货物储区危险因素,再建立化学爆炸与毒气泄漏危害距离计算模型,最后以冲击波伤害与毒气中毒有效剂量标准为依据,根据已建模型计算化学爆炸与主、次导风向毒气泄漏伤害距离。结果表明在设定安全防护距离时,结合化学爆炸、毒气泄漏危害距离模型,能得到合理的危险货物储区周边安全防护距离,具有实际应用价值。     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的高速铁路牵引变电所可靠性分析

结合GO-FLOW法的动态特性,将动态贝叶斯理论应用于高速铁路牵引变电所可靠性的分析中。首先将GO-FLOW法中的功能操作符、逻辑操作符、信号发生器、输入信号流等转换为相应的动态贝叶斯网络模块,并建立其条件概率表;然后根据牵引变电所主接线GO-FLOW图和主接线系统功能逻辑关系进行连接,得到基于GO-FLOW图的牵引变电所主接线的动态贝叶斯网络模型;最后运用动态贝叶斯算法对模型求解,得到了牵引变电所主接线的可靠性参数和可靠性变化曲线,结果表明当考虑部件随时间推移而失效的情况时更加符合实际。与其他方法相比,该方法考虑了分析对象的动态特征,减少了公式推导过程,简单清晰,便于实际应用。     

一种利用海量AIS数据规划安全航线的方法

为了解决智能规划的船舶航线贴着障碍物、岸边等问题,提出了一种基于海量AIS数据,研究船舶习惯航路并以此规划航线的方法。将分析水域网格化,选取目标船舶,统计其航迹所占的网格并计数,形成单船的航迹网格图。叠加不同目标船的航迹网格图,可获取分析水域内的航迹分布网格频数图,该图凝结了前船行驶的习惯航线。依据前船习惯航线设置网格的适航度,利用适航度改进A星算法的估值函数,可规划两点间安全航线。利用成山头警戒区作为分析水域,构建该水域3个月内100~150 m船舶形成的航迹分布网格频数图,并以此为依据规划航线,结果显示推荐的航线倾向于选择适航度较高的网格,有效避免以往研究中航线贴着障碍物、岸边的情况。     

Carbon emission analysis of a residential building in China through life cycle assessment

In this paper, a quantitative life cycle model for carbon emission accounting was developed based on the life cycle assessment (LCA) theory. A residential building in Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city (Tianjin, China) was selected as a sample, which had been constructed according to the concept of green environmental protection and sustainable development. In the scenario of this research, material production, construction, use and maintenance, and demolition phases were assessed by building carbon emission models. Results show that use and maintenance phase and material production phase are the most significant contributors to the life cycle carbon emissions of a building. We also analyzed some factor influences in LCA, including the thickness of the insulating layer and the length of building service life. The analysis suggest that thicker insulating layer does not necessarily produce less carbon emissions in the light of LCA, and if service life of a building increases, its carbon emissions during the whole life cycle will rise as well but its unit carbon emission will decrease inversely. Some advices on controlling carbon emissions from buildings are also provided.     

改性纳米铁原位反应带修复范围影响因素研究

为了解蔗糖改性纳米铁原位反应带在地下含水层中的形成规律,在二维模拟装置中创建原位反应带,研究了石英砂介质颗粒大小?地下水流速?浆液注入浓度?注入量及注入方式对反应带修复范围的影响.结果表明:反应带宽度随介质粒径及地下水流速的增加而增大,粗砂中反应带宽度约为细砂的3倍;当地下水流速由0.1m/d增加到1.0m/d时,反应带宽度分别增加了14.9%和106.4%.浆液分次注入的方式可使反应带初始宽度增加19.8%;较小的浆液浓度有利于反应带在水流方向和含水层垂向修复范围的扩展.     

Estimating the critical phosphorus loading of shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake: Sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty

There is a vast body of knowledge that eutrophication of lakes may cause algal blooms. Among lakes, shallow lakes are peculiar systems in that they typically can be in one of two contrasting (equilibrium) states that are self-stabilizing: a ‘clear’ state with submerged macrophytes or a ‘turbid’ state dominated by phytoplankton. Eutrophication may cause a switch from the clear to the turbid state, if the P loading exceeds a critical value. The ecological processes governing this switch are covered by the ecosystem model PCLake, a dynamic model of nutrient cycling and the biota in shallow lakes. Here we present an extensive analysis of the model, using a three-step procedure. (1) A sensitivity analysis revealed the key parameters for the model output. (2) These parameters were calibrated on the combined data on total phosphorus, chlorophyll-a, macrophytes cover and Secchi depth in over 40 lakes. This was done by a Bayesian procedure, giving a weight to each parameter setting based on its likelihood. (3) These weights were used for an uncertainty analysis, applied to the switchpoints (critical phosphorus loading levels) calculated by the model. The model was most sensitive to changes in water depth, P and N loading, retention time and lake size as external input factors, and to zooplankton growth rate, settling rates and maximum growth rates of phytoplankton and macrophytes as process parameters. The results for the ‘best run’ showed an acceptable agreement between model and data and classified nearly all lakes to which the model was applied correctly as either ‘clear’ (macrophyte-dominated) or ‘turbid’ (phytoplankton-dominated). The critical loading levels for a standard lake showed about a factor two uncertainty due to the variation in the posterior parameter distribution. This study calculates in one coherent analysis uncertainties in critical phosphorus loading, a parameter that is of great importance to water quality managers.     

A Voronoi diagram based population model for social species of wildlife

A population model is presented that accounts for spatial structure within habitat patches. It is designed for social species of wildlife that form social group home ranges that are much smaller than patch size. The model represents social group home ranges by Voronoi regions that tessellate a patch to form a Voronoi diagram. Neighbouring social groups are linked with habitat-confined shortest paths and form a dispersal network. The model simulates population dynamics and makes use of Voronoi diagrams and dispersal networks as a spatial component. It then produces density maps as outputs. These are maps that show predicted animal densities across the patches of a landscape. A construction procedure for the particular Voronoi diagram type used by the model is described. As a test case, the model is run for the squirrel glider (Petaurus norfolcensis), a small arboreal marsupial native to Australia. A time series of density maps are produced that show squirrel glider density changing across a landscape through time.     

居民灾害应对能力评价及影响因素研究

基于灾害应对能力现有理论基础,构建基于"认知-响应-备灾"的KRP模型,采用熵值法评估区域居民灾害应对能力;采用二分法,将受访者分为高、低水平灾害应对能力组,运用对比分析法和回归分析法,结合居民个体特征探讨灾害应对能力影响机制.结果发现:①区域居民的灾害应对能力处于中低水平,日常备灾能力是影响居民灾害应对能力的关键因素...