Investigation of hit-and-run crash occurrence and severity using real-time loop detector data and hierarchical Bayesian binary logit model with random effects

Objective: Most of the extensive research dedicated to identifying the influential factors of hit-and-run (HR) crashes has utilized typical maximum likelihood estimation binary logit models, and none have employed real-time traffic data. To fill this gap, this study focused on investigating factors contributing to HR crashes, as well as the severity levels of HR.

Methods: This study analyzed 4-year crash and real-time loop detector data by employing hierarchical Bayesian models with random effects within a sequential logit structure. In addition to evaluation of the impact of random effects on model fitness and complexity, the prediction capability of the models was examined. Stepwise incremental sensitivity and specificity were calculated and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to graphically illustrate the predictive performance of the model.

Results: Among the real-time flow variables, the average occupancy and speed from the upstream detector were observed to be positively correlated with HR crash possibility. The average upstream speed and speed difference between upstream and downstream speeds were correlated with the occurrence of severe HR crashes. In addition to real-time factors, other variables found influential for HR and severe HR crashes were length of segment, adverse weather conditions, dark lighting conditions with malfunctioning street lights, driving under the influence of alcohol, width of inner shoulder, and nighttime.

Conclusions: This study suggests the potential traffic conditions of HR and severe HR occurrence, which refer to relatively congested upstream traffic conditions with high upstream speed and significant speed deviations on long segments. The above findings suggest that traffic enforcement should be directed toward mitigating risky driving under the aforementioned traffic conditions. Moreover, enforcement agencies may employ alcohol checkpoints to counter driving under the influence (DUI) at night. With regard to engineering improvements, wider inner shoulders may be constructed to potentially reduce HR cases and street lights should be installed and maintained in working condition to make roads less prone to such crashes.     

飞行员记忆与安全绩效的关系研究

为了探究飞行员记忆与安全绩效的关系,提高优秀飞行员选拔的有效性和飞行排班的科学性,对飞行员记忆进行测试,结合其近6年的飞行品质(QAR)数据,系统分析了记忆与安全绩效的关系及各因素对飞行员记忆的影响情况。结果表明:飞行员形象记忆、情景记忆、运动记忆、语义记忆与安全绩效呈正相关关系,情绪记忆与安全绩效呈“n”型关系;情景记忆主要受不良情绪波动的影响,语义记忆主要受对大脑缺乏开发应用情况以及压力的影响,情绪记忆主要受不良嗜好和年龄的影响,形象记忆主要受睡眠和疾病的影响,运动记忆主要受用脑过度和年龄因素影响。     

一种系统化的生产安全事故分级新方法研究

为了强化《生产安全事故报告和调查处理条例》(493号令)对事故管理及其影响评价的重要作用。笔者在论证了关于提出事故分级新方法的必要性后,在前人已有研究成果的基础上,结合生产安全事故特点,初步提出了一种基于"人员伤亡、财产损失、社会影响和环境污染"四个指标的系统化事故分级新方法。该事故分级理念及方法能更好地切合生产安全事故定义,对新时期下事故分级理念中事故影响多样性内涵的引入是一种积极和有效的探索,具有一定意义。     

海洋环境对厘米波隐身涂层的影响规律

就我国海洋环境对厘米波隐身涂层的影响规律进行了总结。得到了该涂层除外观颜色变化较明显外,力学性能和隐身性能均变化不显著的结果。为设计、研制部门掌握海洋环境对厘米波隐身涂层的影响规律,提高装备的环境适应性提供参考。     

矿井通风网络压能图节点分层算法研究

为解决人工绘制矿井通风网络图与压能图工作量繁重的问题,基于对矿井通风网络图与矿井通风压能图的特点与作用的研究,提出了具有通风网络图与压能图部分特点的矿井通风网络压能图的概念及其特点与作用。采用分层算法实现对矿井通风网络压能图中各节点纵向相对位置的确定,为避免巷道两端节点压能值因取整相等时被分到同一层的问题,提出运用最长路径算法对各巷道节点进行第1次分层,再利用各节点的相对压能值进行2次分层的绘制方法。构造以分层算法绘制通风网络压能图的整体框架,为实现矿井通风网络压能图的自动绘制提供了技术支持。     

What room for politics and change in global climate governance? Addressing gender in co-benefits and safeguards

Questions of equity, gender, power and rights are central to environmental justice in climate mitigation schemes such as REDD+ (Reducing Emissions From Deforestation and Degradation). Drawing on the ideas of co-benefits and safeguards, the strategies for challenging mainstream discourse on gender in REDD+ – from the outside and within – are examined of two organisations that have attempted to bring a political concept – gender – into the largely technical discourse of climate policy. The analysis points to the risks of co-option that women’s organisations face, trying to challenge and change the mainstream discourse on gender in climate policy-making. The need for diverse and flexible strategies for resistance and influence in order to seize opportunities that may arise in countering the depoliticising force of global climate governance are highlighted.     

残疾人疏散安全研究现状与发展趋势

从残疾人类别、个体疏散能力与群体影响以及疏散环境3个方面汇总分析了目前国内外残疾人疏散安全研究现状,认为今后该研究方向应重点研究和解决以下6个问题,即残疾人的分类、对各类别进行系统研究、扩大样本量、残疾群体与健康群体在疏散过程中的相互影响、残疾人运动能力与运动距离的关系以及疏散环境对残疾人疏散能力的影响。     

贝叶斯理论在室内空气质量等级识别中的应用

利用贝叶斯理论在不确定性的表示、推理方面的优势,结合多传感器数据融合技术,以新装修居室的空气为研究对象,构建基于贝叶斯理论的室内空气质量等级的数据融合模型,并借助JAVA语言实现基于贝叶斯理论的室内空气质量等级方法。实验证明该方法正确可行,其计算结果稳定准确。     

噪声背景值修正问题研究

为了解和掌握环境背景噪声对边界噪声监测结果的影响情况,本文就此作了相应的探讨。结果显示：当测量值与背景值的差值超过10dB（A）时,可以忽略背景值对测量结果的影响;当测量值与背景值的差值为3～10dB（A）时,应分段考虑背景值的修正;当测量值与背景值的差值小于3dB（A）时,应重新选择时间进行测定。     

常温催化抗菌研究现状及展望

病原微生物所引发的传染性疾病严重威胁人类健康和生命。传统抗菌技术通常需要外加光、热等能量,如紫外线、光催化、微波等,实际应用受限。常温催化作为一种新型抗菌技术,能够在常温条件下发生催化氧化反应,产生强氧化性的活性氧物种而起杀菌作用。因此,常温催化技术在抗菌领域具有应用优势,综述其抗菌研究现状对于系统性认知常温催化抗菌具有指导意义。本文阐述了常温催化抗菌材料及其活性氧物种产生过程,介绍了常温催化抗菌性能的评价方法,讨论了常温催化抗菌的作用机制,重点分析了常温催化抗菌性能的影响因素。此外,基于国内外常温催化的抗菌研究现状,指出了常温催化抗菌研究存在的问题及未来发展趋势。