一种考虑子体影响的放射性剂量评价方法及其应用

给出了一种考虑子体影响的放射性剂量评价方法,并用此法对铀尾矿中234U通过地下水迁移对人体所致剂量进行了估算.结果表明,子体230Th对整个剂量的贡献值远远大于母体234U.因此,在剂量评价中,需要考虑子体的影响,尤其是计算结果和剂量限值比较接近时,考虑子体的影响尤为必要,只有这样才能保证安全需要.     

青岛市区土壤天然放射性核素的外照射水平估算研究

城市的辐射环境质量对于人居和发展规划有重要意义。利用伽玛能谱仪对青岛市区内的天然放射性核素进行了大规模高密度的现场测量,采用Beck公式计算了离地面1m高处的空气吸收剂量率,进而计算了外照射年有效剂量、外照射指数和等效镭浓度,对研究区的外照射水平进行了系统的评价。与和其他国家全国比较,虽然该区的空气吸收剂量率较高,但是其他衡量天然放射性核素外照射水平的指标均在容许范围之内。因此该区属于外照射水平的安全区域,人居环境不受影响。     

Qualitative and quantitative assessment of the risk from the exposure to fetotoxic chemical compounds

A new mathematical dose-response model for the expected probability of toxic response and also for the expected measure of the overdispersion parameter for the reproductive and developmental risk assessment is proposed. The model for the expected probability of toxic response is an improvised Weibull dose-response model incorporating the litter-size effect while the model for the overdispersion parameter is a polynomial function of the dose level. A beta-binomial distribution for the number of offspring showing toxic responses in a litter satisfactorily accounts for the extra-binomial variation and the intralitter correlation of responses of these pups. Confidence limits for low-dose extrapolation are based on the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio. The safe dose for human exposure is then calculated by simple linear extrapolation. The model for overdispersion allows us to obtain the estimates of the overdispersion parameter at these dosages. This was not possible in the earlier models. The proposed model is illustrated by an application to a study on the effect of exposure to diethylhexylphthalate in mice. The results are compared with those obtained by Chen and Kodell (1989) who have applied the simple Weibull dose-response model to the same data set.This paper was prepared with partial support from the United States Environmental Protection Agency under a Cooperative Agreement Number CR-815273. The contents have not been subject to Agency review and therefore do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

Continuous dose-response modeling and risk analysis with the gamma and reciprocal gamma distributions

Kodell and West (1993) describe two methods for calculating pointwise upper confidence limits on the risk function with normally distributed responses and using a certain definition of adverse quantitative effect. But Banga et al. (2000) have shown that these normal theory methods break down when applied to skew data. We accordingly develop a risk analysis model and associated likelihood-based methodology when the response follows either a gamma or reciprocal gamma distribution. The model supposes that the shape (index) parameter k of the response distribution is held fixed while the logarithm of the scale parameter is a linear model in terms of the dose level. Existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimates is established. Asymptotic likelihood-based upper and lower confidence limits on the risk are solutions of the Lagrange equations associated with a constrained optimization problem. Starting values for an iterative solution are obtained by replacing the Lagrange equations by the lowest order terms in their asymptotic expansions. Three methods are then compared for calculating confidence limits on the risk: (i) the aforementioned starting values (LRAL method), (ii) full iterative solution of the Lagrange equations (LREL method), and (iii) bounds obtained using approximate normality of the maximum likelihood estimates with standard errors derived from the information matrix (MLE method). Simulation is used to assess coverage probabilities for the resulting upper confidence limits when the log of the scale parameter is quadratic in the dose level. Results indicate that coverage for the MLE method can be off by as much as 15% points and converges very slowly to nominal coverage levels as the sample size increases. Coverage for the LRAL and LREL methods, on the other hand, is close to nominal levels unless (a) the sample size is small, say N < 25, (b) the index parameter is small, say k 1, and (c) the direction of adversity is to the left for the gamma distribution or to the right for the reciprocal gamma distribution.     

Multiplicity-adjusted Inferences in Risk Assessment: Benchmark Analysis with Continuous Response Data

We develop and study multiplicity adjustments for low-dose inferences in environmental risk assessment. Application is intended for risk analysis studies where human, animal, or ecological data are used to set safe levels of a hazardous environmental agent. A modern method for making inferences in this setting is known as benchmark analysis, where attention centers on the dose at which a fixed benchmark level of risk is achieved. Both upper confidence limits on the risk and lower confidence limits on the “benchmark dose” are of interest. In practice, a number of possible benchmark risks may be under study; if so, corrections must be applied to adjust the limits for multiplicity. In this note, we discuss approaches for doing so with continuous, nonquantal response data.     

哈密地区新型建筑材料天然放射性核素含量及居民受照剂量估算

用放射化学分析方法对哈密地区主要新型建材中＾２２６Ｒａ、＾２３２Ｔｈ、＾４０Ｋ含量分析测定。结果表明，放射性核素比活度限制值内照射指数和外照射指数平均范围值分别为０．０２－０．２６，０．０３－０．６６。花岗岩石材和涂釉制品最高，装饰材料最低。建材所致居民内、外照射年有效剂量当量为０．０６－０．９６ｍＳｖ．ａ＾－１，明显低于哈密地区室内环境γ辐射及氡子体所致居民年有效剂量当量实际调查值１．４３ｍＳｖ     

The creation of an historical meteorological database for environmental dose assessment

The focus of this study is to develop wind data for the SavannahRiver Site (SRS) between 1955 and 1961 to be used in an assessment of estimates of atmospheric dispersion and downwindrisk at the Savannah River Site. In particular, a study of theuncertainties of radioiodine dosimetry from the late 1950sprovides the underlying motivation for developing historicalwindroses at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Wind measurement towers did not exist at the SRS until theearly 1970s. Three relatively simple methods were used to createa 1955–1961 meteorological database for the SRS for a dosereconstruction project. The winds were estimated from onsitemeasurements in the 1990s and National Weather Service (NWS)observations in the 1990s and 1950s using (1) a linear regressionmethod, (2) a similarity theory approach, and (3) a simplestatistical differences method. The criteria for determining success were based on (1) howwell the mean values and standard deviations of the predictedwind speed agree with the known SRS values from the 1990s, (2) the shape of the predicted frequency distribution functions forwind speed, and (3) how closely the predicted windroses resembledthe SRS windrose for the 1990s. The linear regression model's wind speed distribution functionwas broad, flat, and skewed too much toward higher wind speeds.The similarity theory approach produced a wind speed distributionfunction that contained excess predicted speeds in the range 0–1.54 m s^-1 (0–3 kts) and had `excluded' bins caused bypredictions being made from integer values of knots in the NWSdata. The distribution function from the mean difference methodwas smooth with a shape like a Weibull distribution with a shapeparameter of 2 and appearedto resemble closely the SRS 1992–1996 distribution.The wind directions for all three methods of approach weresuccessfully based on the mean difference method. It wasdifficult to discern differences among the wind roses produced bythe three methods so the wind speed distribution functions needto be examined in order to make an informed choice for dose reconstruction.     

中国七大流域全氟烷基酸污染水平与饮水暴露风险

为探究中国七大流域全氟烷基酸(perfluoroalkyl acids,PFAAs)的污染现状与居民饮水暴露风险,基于美国国家环保署推荐的风险评估方法,应用场景风险评估模式,分析了各流域PFAAs的污染水平及特征,并对中国成人、青少年、儿童的PFAAs日均饮水暴露量(average daily dose,ADD)及其健康风险进行了评估.结果表明,中等暴露水平下,中国七大流域ΣPFAAs中位浓度为14 ng·L-1,全氟辛酸(perfluorooctane acid,PFOA)、全氟丁酸和全氟辛烷磺酸(perfluorooctane sulfonic acid,PFOS)为主要污染物,松辽、太湖流域ΣPFAAs高于整体水平.高等暴露水平下,碳链≤6的全氟羧酸类化合物占ΣPFAAs的比例高于中等暴露水平.黄河、长江部分河段污染水平高.风险评估结果显示,饮水暴露PFOA、PFOS对中国各年龄段居民尚无健康风险,且青少年日均饮水摄入量偏少.     

荷兰长期能效协议和能效标杆合约及启示

提高能效是减排的重要途径,荷兰长期能效协议和能效标杆合约在这方面取得了很大成效,其成功经验值得研究和学习。本文首先系统介绍了荷兰长期能效协议和能效标杆合约的构建、实施及监督过程,分析了其取得的成效和存在的不足。然后描述了自愿协议式方法在中国的应用情况和我国面临的节能减排压力。最后总结出长期能效协议和能效标杆合约对我国应用和推广自愿协议式方法的启示。     

卫星元器件抗辐射指标优化分析

目的在航天器设计中对选用的电子元器件提出了抗辐射指标要求。随着航天器设计寿命增加,对元器件提出的抗辐射指标越来越高,因此需要优化对元器件的抗辐射指标要求,以降低因辐射指标不满足而限制元器件的选择范围。方法通过对国内外抗辐射指标体系的对比分析和典型轨道、典型器件的数据分析,探讨总剂量指标的优化方法。对在轨翻转概率的影响因素进行分析,并采用典型数据的单粒子翻转概率评估,明确采用单一LET阈值指标的局限。结果总剂量效应和单粒子效应指标均有优化的方法和空间。结论通过对辐射环境的细化分析,降低辐射设计裕度,可降低总剂量的辐射指标要求。结合单粒子效应的应用需求以及防护设计,降低对器件LET阈值要求。