Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation,Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi1

Frey, Ashley E., Francisco Olivera, Jennifer L. Irish, Lauren M. Dunkin, James M. Kaihatu, Celso M. Ferreira, and Billy L. Edge, 2010. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation, Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–11. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00475.x Abstract: The effect of climate change on storm-surge flooding and the implications for population and structural damages on the city of Corpus Christi, Texas, was investigated. The study considered the influence of sea level rise and hurricane intensification, both influenced by climate change. Combinations of future carbon dioxide equivalent emission rates and carbon dioxide doubling sensitivities, based on findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were considered to define future climate scenarios. A suite of physically based numerical models for hurricane winds and the resulting waves, surge, and morphological change at the coast were used to determine flooded areas, population affected, and property damages for Hurricanes Bret, Beulah, and a version of Carla shifted south from its original track, under present and predicted future climate conditions. A comparison of the economic damages for current climate conditions and for the 2080s climate scenario shows that, for Carla (shifted), there will be an increase in the range of $270-1,100 million; for Beulah, of $100-390 million; and, for Bret, of $30-280 million. A similar analysis was also conducted for 2030s predicted climate scenarios. Overall, the comparison of the results for the different climate conditions indicates what the destructive consequences of climate change could be, even within the somewhat short time frame of 80 years considered here.     

化工事故应急救援仿真演练系统的实施探讨

阐述了化工事故应急救援仿真的必要性及其国内外研究进展;提出整个系统的框架并设计系统开发过程的模型;分析了基于高层体系结构(HIA)的仿真系统的开发要点,给出参考开发工具,从而为整个系统开发提供思路.     

U型工作面上隅角埋管瓦斯抽采数值模拟研究

传统的U型通风工作面上隅角瓦斯积聚现象经常出现，严重制约着矿井正常生产能力的有效发挥，对矿井安全生产造成重大威胁。基于前人对采空区非均质多孔介质气体运移理论的研究，采用Fluent软件数值模拟研究了U型和上隅角埋管条件下U型通风系统的静压力场和瓦斯浓度场。研究结果表明：在相同的模型参数条件下，U型通风容易造成上隅角瓦斯积聚，上隅角瓦斯超限问题十分严重；采空区5m处埋管，治理上隅角瓦斯积聚的效果欠佳，达不到安全开采的条件；15m处埋管可以较好的解决上隅角瓦斯超限问题，工作面没有出现瓦斯积聚现象，工作面和回风巷的瓦斯浓度始终处于1％以下；25m处埋管的效果与15m基本相同，没有表现出更好的瓦斯治理效果。综合数值模拟的结果，确定了上隅角埋管抽放采空区瓦斯的理想抽放位置为距离地板垂高1．2m、沿走向深入采空区15m处。     

DYNAMICS OF SIMULATED EFFECTS OF IRRIGATION OVER DRYLAND FARMING IN SASKATCHEWAN1

ABSTRACT: Irrigation development in Saskatchewan was initiated as an instrument to bring forth regional stability through drought proofing and diversification in the agricultural sector. This development has been surrounded by controversies. Particularly, some critics questioning its economic value to the farmer. In this study, irrigation on a farm is compared as a growth alternative to the expansion of dryland farming. Under relatively conservative machine replacement policies, modest family withdrawals, government subsidized irrigation loans, and relatively favorable gross operating margins, irrigation can be a profitable undertaking in the South Saskatchewan River Basin.     

MFAM模型在河流水质污染模拟及预测中的应用

文中以时间序列分析为基础，介绍了均值生成函数这一崭新概念，并且经成份因子提取分析推导建立了模拟序列的数字模型（简记为MFAM），经对黄河下游花园口断面的1988-1989年实测水质污染指标溶解氧（DO），氨氧，化学耗氧量（COD），五日生化需氧量（BOD5）等序列模拟，结果表明MFAM模型能较好地模拟河流水质污染指标的变化趋势，拟合平均误差只有5.2-6.4%，MFAM模型应用于预测1990-1991年水质污染指标变化，结果表明预测精度达85%以上，文中最后得出结论：MFAM模型应用于河流污染模拟和预测，是完全可行且十分方便。     

Initial decision analysis (IDA): a participatory approach for developing resource policies

Initial decision analysis (IDA) is a microcomputer based decision-making technique that is organized so that a rational, step-by-step, procedure can be followed to use existing knowledge to develop resource policies. The IDA process provides a systematic way for participants to define their own problem and to explore jointly alternative solutions. IDA is particularly suited to resolving complex problems involving many groups with conflicting interests. IDA is illustrated with data from the US Forest Service's Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the 1985 to 2030 Resource Planning Act Program for the United States. Four policy options are evaluated: maximization of timber production, of grazing, and of wilderness, and a dominant use policy that concentrates timber management on productive sites. Policies were evaluated using a new mathematical satisficing procedure. Mathematical satisficing of simulated policy consequences showed that, for selected performance standards, current RPA policies are superior to the four alternative policies examined.     

SIMULATION AND DECISIONMAKING: THE PLATTE RIVER BASIN IN NEBRASKA1

Substantial conflict exists over water management and allocation in the Platte River Basin of Nebraska. An interdisciplinary computer simulation model, representing the water quantity, water quality, environmental, and economic dimensions of the conflict, was developed in order to analyze the tradeoffs among allocation scenarios. Most importantly, decisionmakers and interest groups were involved in model development. Simulation results for a base case and two scenarios are presented. One scenario favors protection of instream flow for wildlife; the other favors water diversions for agriculture. Impacts of the instream flow scenario, as measured by the amount of land irrigated, groundwater levels, the amount of wildlife habitat for cranes and catfish, and net agricultural benefits did not differ greatly from those of the base case. However, impacts of the diversion scenario were substantial. On the negative side, instream flows and wildlife habitat declined an average of 39 percent; while, on the positive side, groundwater levels and net agricultural benefits each increased 6 percent. The modeling process was successful insofar as it promoted an understanding among the highly diverse interest groups of the systems nature of the Basin. One agreement on a water diversion schedule among three of the parties has been reached, partly as a result of this process. More comprehensive compromises have not yet been forged. Our experience, however, indicates that modeling success at the policymaking level depends more on the extent to which the policymakers understand the model than it does on model sophistication.     

COMPARISON OF RESERVOIR LINEAR OPERATION RULES USING LINEAR AND DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT: Mathematical optimization techniques are used to study the operation and design of a single, multi-purpose reservoir system. Optimal monthly release policies are derived for Hoover Reservoir, located in Central Ohio, using chance-constrained linear programming and dynamic programming-regression methodologies. Important characteristics of the former approach are derived, discussed, and graphically illustrated using Hoover Reservoir as a case example. Simulation procedures are used to examine and compare the overall performance of the optimal monthly reservoir release policies derived under the two approaches. Results indicate that, for the mean detention time and the corresponding safe yield target water supply release under existing design of Hoover Reservoir, the dynamic programming policies produce lower average annual losses (as defined by a two-sided quadratic loss function) while achieving at least as high reliability levels when compared to policies derived under the chance-constrained linear programming method. In making this comparison, the reservoir release policies, although not identical, are assumed to be linear. This restricted form of the release policy is necessary to make the chance-constrained programming method mathematically tractable.