Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.     

What's wrong with virtual trees? Restoring from stress in a mediated environment

Restorative environments are environments that can help restore depleted attention resources or reduce emotional and psychophysiological stress. These effects have been demonstrated not only in real environments, but also in mediated (projected, broadcasted, etc.) environments. However, the importance of simulation qualities to restoration outcomes has not been systematically studied. The present experiment investigates the importance of immersion in a mediated environment in relation to restoration. Is a projected natural environment more restorative when one is more immersed in it, and hence feels more present in it? The hypothesis was that a more immersive projection would show stronger stress-reducing effects of a mediated restorative environment. After performing a stress-inducing task, participants watched a nature film on either a high or low immersive screen. Physiological measurements (heart period and skin conductance level) were taken throughout the experiment. In addition, we measured self-reported affect and presence using the ITC-Sense of Presence Questionnaire. Significant effects of the screen size manipulation appeared on physiological measures, but not on self-reported affect. The data showed an interaction between screen size and restorative phase on heart period and skin conductance level, indicating stronger restoration for the immersive screen condition over time. We therefore conclude that immersion enhances restorative potential of a mediated natural environment. Self-reported affect did correlate significantly with experienced presence, illustrating the relevance of this experiential counterpart of immersion, although a mediating effect of presence has not yet been established.     

Developing of a pricing model for Turkish lignite used in thermal plants

The objective of this paper is to develop a general pricing model for Turkish Lignite, which is mainly sold to thermal plants. This model will contribute to the development of coal mining within the scope of privatization efforts of the Turkish energy market. The paper consists of two stages. First, data of 10 thermal plants have been evaluated by using hedonic pricing analysis to determine influential price parameters. The results of hedonic regression analysis indicate the effect and importance of calorific value and electricity price on lignite prices. Second, a general coal-pricing model has been developed by taking into account the results of hedonic analysis. Comparison of the coal prices estimated by the developed pricing model and the coal prices obtained from thermal plants indicates an acceptable relation.     

MODELING FECAL COLIFORM CONTAMINATION IN THE RIO GRANDE1

This study examines sources of fecal coliform in Segment 2302 of the Rio Grande, located south of the International Falcon Reservoir in southern Texas. The watershed is unique because the contributing drainage areas lie in Texas and Mexico. Additionally, the watershed is mostly rural, with populated communities known as “colonias.” The colonias lack sewered systems and discharge sanitary water directly to the ground surface, thus posing an increased health hazard from coliform bacteria. Monitoring data confirm that Segment 2302 is not safe for contact recreation due to elevated fecal coliform levels. The goal of the study was to simulate the observed exceedences in Segment 2302 and evaluate potential strategies for their elimination. Fecal coliform contributions from ranching and colonia discharges were modeled using the Hydrologic Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF). Model results indicated that the regulatory 30‐day geometric mean fecal coliform concentration of 200 colony forming units (cfu) per 100 milliliters is exceeded approximately three times per year for a total of 30 days. Ongoing initiatives to improve wastewater facilities will reduce this to approximately once per year for 14 days. Best management practices will be necessary to reduce cattle access to streams and eliminate all exceedences. The developed model was limited by the relatively sparse flow and fecal coliform data.     

A WATER QUALITY‐BASED APPROACH FOR WATERSHED WIDE BMP STRATEGIES1

ABSTRACT: Watershed management strategies generally involve controlling nonpoint source pollution by implementing various best management practices (BMPs). Currently, stormwater management programs in most states use a performance‐based approach to implement onsite BMPs. This approach fails to link the onsite BMP performance directly to receiving water quality benefits, and it does not take into account the combined treatment effects of all the stormwater management practices within a watershed. To address these issues, this paper proposes a water quality‐based BMP planning approach for effective nonpoint source pollution control at a watershed scale. A coupled modeling system consisting of a watershed model (HSPF) and a receiving water quality model (CE‐QUAL‐W2) was developed to establish the linkage between BMP performance and receiving water quality targets. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was utilized to develop alternative BMP strategies at a watershed level. The developed methodology was applied to the Swift Creek Reservoir watershed in Virginia, and the results show that the proposed approach allows for the development of BMP strategies that lead to full compliance with water quality requirements.     

“一一·二四”海难渤海风场的数值模拟

用中尺度数值模式 ＭＭ５对 １９９９年 １１月 ２４日烟台附近发生重大海难事故的渤海风场进行了数值模 拟，探讨了该次冷锋大风的风场特征和影响机制．结果表明：用９０ｋｍ的粗网格可以成功地模拟地面冷高压 与锋面的发展和移动，以及高空环流形势的演变．而通过３０ｋｍ细网格的模拟发现，在冷锋后的行星边界层 中．存在着一条宽度为 ２００ ｋｉｎ的中尺度强风带，最大风速位于 ９２５ｈＰａ，它与高空的极锋急流并不相连；细 网格还模拟出了渤海中尺度低压的发展过程，它使近地面层大风的强度显著加强．模拟还表明，海陆差异对 近地面的风场分布有重要的影响，强风带移入渤海后，在渤海海域形成一个 ２００—３００ ｋｍ的中尺度强风 区．因此，采用具有较高分辨率的中尺度数值模式，对提高渤海大风的预报水平，避兔海难事故的发生更具 有重要意义．     

CFD Prediction of Air Quality in the Area between Two City Vehicular Tunnels Considering Moving Cars

Concentration fields of different pollutants that spread outside two roadtunnels predicted with a CFD code will be presented. The solution domain represents the city area located between two tunnel outlets – tunnel Strahov and tunnel Mrazovka in Prague. The vicinity of both tunnels is a heavily built up area with tall buildings forming typical street canyons. The CFD modelling predicts the situation after the tunnel Mrazovka will be finished and traffic will increase considerably between both tunnels. Namely, an interest was given to the prediction of dispersion of emissions leaving both tunnel and the area touched by the traffic. For the CFD predictions, a method previously developed for moving vehicles was used. The method uses combination of Eulerian and Lagrangian approaches to moving objects and is capable of modeling different speeds and traffic rates of cars as well as traffic-induced turbulence. Influence of several meteorological parameters was studied, namely wind speed and direction and traffic parameters, like traffic rates and speed of cars. The method separates contributions from different sources to the total concentration field, namely from background, tunnel outlet and roadway. Results are presented in the form of horizontal and vertical concentration fields of NO_x.     

C6H12N4+Mg+KClO4+SrSO4系统的振荡控制和安全分析

从实验和数值分析两方面研究了C6Hl2N 4+Mg+KClO4+SrSO4反应系统的振荡燃烧现象,并对反应机理进行了深层次的分析.结果表明,振荡燃烧是由化学动力学的非线性反馈引起的,即:反应系统中镁的三相与氧气的相互竞争反应造成系统的非线性化学振荡燃烧.氧化剂和可燃剂的比值,以及频率调节剂等吸热物质可调节气相镁的生成速率,能有效地控制药剂的振荡频率.选取适当的控制参数,可以使反应按照预定的、安全的过程进行,避免爆燃的产生.本文的研究结果对化工、军事等领域的安全控制具有重要意义.     

烟气扩散的CFD数值模拟

运用商业CFD软件Fluent模拟计算小尺寸下的简单烟气扩散规律.将结果用正态分布假设下的高斯烟羽模型验证.证明该软件模拟烟气扩散问题的可行性.     

天津市城区暴雨沥涝仿真模拟系统的研究

天津市位于黄河水系尾闾，是我国北方重要的工业和港口城市。该市历史上一直遭受洪涝灾害的威胁，加之近几年市区范围不断扩大，不透水面积增加，排水能力远远不能适应城市的发展要求，城市沥涝问题日趋严重。为了掌握天津市暴雨沥涝的规律，减轻洪涝灾害对该市的影响，作者利用二维不恒定流水动力学模型和计算机信息管理及图形技术，采用Power Station Fortran 4.0和Visual Basic5.0编程语言，在Widows98环境下开发了天津市暴雨沥涝仿真模拟系统。该系统首次实现了从城市暴雨预报、监测到城市暴雨沥涝仿真模拟的研究， 不仅能够处理实时的不均匀的降雨信息，还能处理数值预报模型的预报降雨信息。系统的信息前后处理模块用图形方式管理仿真模型的各类信息，方便用户显示、查询和修改，使系统更加完整、实用。