地铁隧道施工安全风险演化的BP-SD模型研究

为深入研究地铁隧道施工风险的动态演化过程,结合系统动力学(SD)、误差反向传播(BP)神经网络与平均影响值（MIV）算法,确定模型中影响因素间的因果关系和影响函数,构建地铁隧道施工风险演化的BP-SD模型。模型仿真结果表明:安全管理风险系统与施工人员风险系统的值的变化对地铁隧道施工风险值影响最大,施工环境系统的值的变化对地铁隧道施工风险值影响次之,机械设备系统的值的变化对地铁隧道施工风险值影响最小。因此,可通过降低安全管理风险值与施工人员风险值控制地铁隧道施工风险发生的概率。     

首钢综合污水回用于循环冷却水系统的动态模拟实验

钢铁企业综合污水经污水厂处理后作为循环冷却水系统的补充水,是解决新水用量大问题和减少外排水的有效途径之一。以首钢污水处理厂出水和除盐水的混合水(TDS分别为700 mg/L和500 mg/L)为动态模拟系统补充水,采用药剂控制方法,年污垢沉积率14.63～18.09 mg/(cm2.月),腐蚀速率小于0.03 mm/a,循环水的费用为0.0174元/t,可以实现安全回用。     

浙江西苕溪水环境容量模型与参数灵敏度分析

针对浙江西苕溪河月流量丰枯悬殊较大、流速小、存在倒流的特点,建立了零维反复流水环境容量模型.以水功能区为基础划分计算单元,选取频率P=50%、75%、90%和近10年最枯月流量为设计水文条件,分别计算了西苕溪CODCr、氨氮、总氮、总磷的水环境容量值;对模型参数进行了蒙特卡罗模拟分析,95%置信水平下,CODcr环境容量置信区间为[17982 t/a,45489 t/a],氨氮为[493t/a,1624t/a],总氮为[435 t/a,1332t/a],总磷为[20t/a,147t/a];模拟结果给了流量、降解系数不确定条件下水环境容量的所有可能值,为决策者提供了更全面的信息.参数灵敏度分析结果表明,各站流量对各污染物环境容量均最敏感,方差贡献占73.3%~99.1%,而降解系数中除k2对CODCr具有一定影响外,其余影响最小,说明计算水环境容量时,选择合适的设计流量极为重要.     

Sensitivity analysis of the two dimensional application of the Generic Ecological Model (GEM) to algal bloom prediction in the North Sea

Harmful algae can cause damage to co-existing organisms, tourism and farmers. Accurate predictions of algal future composition and abundance as well as when and where algal blooms may occur could help early warning and mitigating. The Generic Ecological Model is an instrument that can be applied to any water system (fresh, transitional or coastal) to calculate the primary production, chlorophyll-a concentration and phytoplankton species composition. It consists of physical, chemical and ecological model components which are coupled together to build one generic and flexible modelling tool. In this paper the model has been analyzed to assess sensitivity of the simulated chlorophyll-a concentration to a subset of ecologically significant input factors. Only a small number of approaches could be considered as suitable for several reasons including the model complexity, engagement of numerous interacting parameters and relatively long time of a single simulation. Thus, sensitivity analysis has been carried out with the use of the Morris method and later enriched by the computation of the correlation ratios of the selected parameters on the model response at more than a few locations in the modelled area. The obtained results are in agreement with expert knowledge of the ecological processes in the North Sea and correspond well with local characteristics.     

基于健康风险的土壤修复目标研究程序与方法——以多环芳烃污染土壤再利用工程为例

提出了基于人体健康风险的土壤修复目标的制定方法和程序,并以上海市某重大工程多环芳烃污染土壤处理后再利用工程为例,模拟了多环芳烃在处置场地上的多介质迁移途径及人体暴露场景。模拟结果显示,填埋场污染土壤苯并(a)芘(该污染物毒性因子高,毒性强,致癌风险相对较大)经口摄入和皮肤接触途径最大致癌暴露量分别为1.89×10-6和0.93×10-6mg.kg-1.d-1,人体最大致癌风险水平分别为1.38×10-5和6.79×10-6,超出了中国规定的单致癌污染物的可接受风险水平(≤10-6)。苯并(a)芘呼吸吸入途径最大致癌暴露量为7.79×10-10mg.m-3,人体最大致癌风险水平为6.86×10-10。基于场地的特征条件和参数,以保护人体健康为目的,确定了再利用作为填埋场中层覆土的土壤中5种多环芳烃污染物的修复目标限值(w,mg.kg-1)分别为:苯并(a)芘,0.994;二苯并(a,h)蒽,0.995;苯并(a)蒽,9.95;苯并(b)荧蒽,9.95;苯并(k)荧蒽,99.5。     

分子筛孔结构对CO_2吸附性能的影响

采用巨正则蒙特卡罗方法模拟了CO_2在FAU分子筛上的吸附情况,比较了不同CO_2逸度下,CO_2在分子筛模型上的吸附位、吸附量的变化,拟合了其吸附等温线。结果表明:在吸附饱和状态下,分子筛的孔结构越大,对CO_2的吸附量越大,对于比CO_2分子更小的微孔结构,吸附几乎不发生;在低逸度下,CO_2的吸附主要发生在小孔内,随着逸度的提高,CO_2的吸附量迅速上升;在高逸度下,吸附量的提高主要发生在大孔内;FAU分子筛吸附CO_2的过程符合Ⅰ型Langmuir吸附等温线,在高压下对CO_2的吸附能力远大于低压下的吸附能力。     

海积平原区某非正规垃圾填埋场地下水氨氮污染模拟研究

本研究结合天津市海积平原区水文地质条件,构建了某非正规垃圾填埋场地下水溶质运移模型,并将该模型用于预测分析垃圾填埋场地下水氨氮污染迁移规律.采用敏感性分析研究了渗透系数、孔隙度和弥散度等参数的变化对模拟结果的影响.模拟评价了地下水氨氮污染抽出处理效果.研究结果表明,氨氮污染羽在10年内最大迁移距离为648 m,污染面积达到368667 m~2,高浓度氨氮污染羽主要分布于南部浅层潜水含水层.抽出处理方案效果不佳,易导致氨氮污染羽的拖尾和反弹效应.本研究可为海积平原区地下水氨氮污染治理、修复提供理论参考和依据.     

Simulation of Reflected and Scattered Laser Radiation for Designing Laser Shields

This paper presents a computer simulation of reflected and scattered laser radiation for calculating the angle of laser shields performed with the Laser Shield Solver computer program. The authors describe a method of calculating the shield angle for laser shields which protect workers against reflected and scattered laser radiation and which are made from different materials. The main assumptions of the program, which calculates and simulates reflected laser radiation from any material and which can be used for designing shield angles, are presented. Calculations are compared with measurements of reflected laser radiation. The results for one type of laser and different materials which interacted with a laser beam showed that the Laser Shield Solver was an appropriate tool for designing laser shields and its simulations of reflected laser radiation distribution have practical use.     

Identification of Driver Model Parameters

The paper presents a driver model, which can be used in a computer simulation of a curved ride of a car. The identification of the driver parameters consisted in a comparison of the results of computer calculations obtained for the driver-vehicle-environment model with different driver data sets with test results of the double lane-change manoeuvre (Standard No. ISO/TR 3888:1975, International Organization for Standardization [ISO], 1975) and the wind gust manoeuvre. The optimisation method allows to choose for each real driver a set of driver model parameters for which the differences between test and calculation results are smallest. The presented driver model can be used in investigating the driver-vehicle control system, which allows to adapt the car construction to the psychophysical characteristics of a driver.     

Positive affectivity neutralizes transformational leadership's influence on creative performance and organizational citizenship behaviors

This study uses an interactionist approach to examine the moderating effect of follower trait positive affectivity (trait PA) on the relation between transformational leadership and both follower creative performance and organizational citizenship behaviors (OCB). On the basis of responses from 212 employees and their direct supervisors from the research and development department of a company in Mainland China, results support the hypothesized moderation effect. Specifically, the positive influence of transformational leadership on creative performance was significantly reduced for followers who were higher on trait PA (ΔR² = .02, p < .05). The same pattern, in which followers' trait PA appeared to substitute for the influence of transformational leadership, generalized to the outcome of follower OCB as well (ΔR² = .04, p < .01). We discussed theoretical and practical implications of these findings. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.