Examining the colonization process of exotic species varying in competitive abilities using a cellular automaton model

Current threats of invasive species have significant implications for ecological systems. Given their potential impacts, invasive species have been the subject of extensive empirical and theoretical studies. However, these studies have tended to focus on species that produce highly visible ecological and economic impacts. In our study, we take a step back from focusing on these high-impact invasive species, and examine the general colonization (invasion) process of exotic species that have various “competitive abilities” against the native species. Using a two-species cellular automaton model, we demonstrate that: (1) a threshold level of competitive ability is required for the exotic species to successfully establish in a new landscape and (2) an exotic species with superior competitive ability does not necessarily become dominant in a landscape (alternatively, a species that has inferior competitive ability may successfully colonize a new system). Our findings have significant implications for the study of species invasions and also provide clues to how species assemble in ecological communities.     

Spatial scales and probability based sampling in determining levels of benthic community degradation in the Chesapeake Bay

The extent of degradation of benthic communities of the Chesapeake Bay was determined by applying a previously developed benthic index of biotic integrity at three spatial scales. Allocation of sampling was probability-based allowing areal estimates of degradation with known confidence intervals. The three spatial scales were: (1) the tidal Chesapeake Bay; (2) the Elizabeth River watershed; and (3) two small tidal creeks within the Southern Branch of the Elizabeth River that are part of a sediment contaminant remediation effort. The areas covered varied from 10^–1 to 10⁴ km² and all were sampled in 1999. The Chesapeake Bay was divided into ten strata, the Elizabeth River into five strata and each of the two tidal creeks was a single stratum. The determination of the number and size of strata was based upon consideration of both managerially useful units for restoration and limitations of funding. Within each stratum 25 random locations were sampled for benthic community condition. In 1999 the percent of the benthos with poor benthic community condition for the entire Chesapeake Bay was 47% and varied from 20% at the mouth of the Bay to 72% in the Potomac River. The estimated area of benthos with poor benthic community condition for the Elizabeth River was 64% and varied from 52–92%. Both small tidal creeks had estimates of 76% of poor benthic community condition. These kinds of estimates allow environmental managers to better direct restoration efforts and evaluate progress towards restoration. Patterns of benthic community condition at smaller spatial scales may not be correctly inferred from larger spatial scales. Comparisons of patterns in benthic community condition across spatial scales, and between combinations of strata, must be cautiously interpreted.     

Preventing the Spread of Invasive Species: Economic Benefits of Intervention Guided by Ecological Predictions

Abstract:  Preventing the invasion of freshwater aquatic species is the surest way to reduce their impacts, but it is also often expensive. Hence, the most efficient prevention programs will rely on accurate predictions of sites most at risk of becoming invaded and concentrate resources at those sites. Using data from Vilas County, Wisconsin (U.S.A.), collected in the 1970s, we constructed a predictive occurrence model for rusty crayfish ( Orconectes rusticus ) and applied it to an independent data set of 48 Vilas County lakes to predict which of these were most likely to become invaded between 1975 and 2005. We nested this invasion model within an economic framework to determine whether targeted management, derived from our quantitative predictions of likely invasion sites, would increase the economic value of lakes in the independent data set. Although the optimum expenditure on lake protection was high, protecting lakes at this level would have produced net economic benefits of at least $6 million over the last 30 years. We did not attempt to determine the value of nonmarket benefits of protection; thus, our results are likely to underestimate the total benefits from preventing invasions. Our results demonstrate that although few data are available early in an invasion, these data may be sufficient to support targeted, effective, and economically rational management. In addition, our results show that ecological predictions are becoming sufficiently accurate that their application in management can produce net economic benefits.     

Environmental Synergisms and Extinctions of Tropical Species

Abstract: Environmental synergisms may pose the greatest threat to tropical biodiversity. Using recently updated data sets from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, we evaluated the incidence of perceived threats to all known mammal, bird, and amphibian species in tropical forests. Vulnerable, endangered, and extinct species were collectively far more likely to be imperiled by combinations of threats than expected by chance. Among 45 possible pairwise combinations of 10 different threats, 69%, 93%, and 71% were significantly more frequent than expected for threatened mammals, birds, and amphibians, respectively, even with a stringent Bonferroni‐corrected probability value (p= 0.003). Based on this analysis, we identified five key environmental synergisms in the tropics and speculate on the existence of others. The most important involve interactions between habitat loss or alteration (from agriculture, urban sprawl, infrastructure, or logging) and other anthropogenic disturbances such as hunting, fire, exotic‐species invasions, or pollution. Climatic change and emerging pathogens also can interact with other threats. We assert that environmental synergisms are more likely the norm than the exception for threatened species and ecosystems, can vary markedly in nature among geographic regions and taxa, and may be exceedingly difficult to predict in terms of their ultimate impacts. The perils posed by environmental synergisms highlight the need for a precautionary approach to tropical biodiversity conservation.     

Daphne: a new multimetric benthic index for the quality assessment of marine coastal environment in the Northern Adriatic Sea

A new benthic index, named Daphne, is proposed for the Northern Adriatic coastal area, near the Po river delta. It is based on six characteristics of the community that do not require in-depth taxonomic expertise: number of mollusc species, % of bivalves, % of polychaetes, abundance of the opportunistic species Corbula gibba, % of amphipods and number of 'typical mollusc species' that are individuated by multivariate analysis. The application of the index in selected stations along a gradient of decreasing disturbance shows that it is simple to use in regular monitoring campaigns and that the results are consistent with environmental quality data in the special conditions of this area subjected to considerable river runoff. The index can be used in addition and as a complement to more widespread indices (such as M-AMBI); a comparison of the two indices performance is discussed.     

Stochastic gravity models for modeling lake invasions

Freshwater aquatic systems in North America are being invaded by many different species, ranging from fish, mollusks, cladocerans to various bacteria and viruses. These invasions have serious ecological and economic impacts. Human activities such as recreational boating are an important pathway for dispersal. Gravity models are used to quantify the dispersal effect of human activity. Gravity models currently used in ecology are deterministic. This paper proposes the use of stochastic gravity models in ecology, which provides new capabilities both in model building and in potential model applications. These models allow us to use standard statistical inference tools such as maximum likelihood estimation and model selection based on information criteria. To facilitate prediction, we use only those covariates that are easily available from common data sources and can be forecasted in future. This is important for forecasting the spread of invasive species in geographical and temporal domain. The proposed model is portable, that is it can be used for estimating relative boater traffic and hence relative propagule pressure for the lakes not covered by current boater surveys. This makes our results broadly applicable to various invasion prediction and management models.     

COST EFFECTIVENESS OF VEGETATIVE FILTER STRIPS AND INSTREAM HALF‐LOGS FOR ECOLOGICAL RESTORATION1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of cost effectiveness (CE) analysis of vegetative filter strips (VFS) and instream half‐logs as tools for recovering scores on a fish Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) in the upper Wabash River watershed (UW) in Indiana. Three assumptions were made about recovery time for IBI scores (5,15, and 30 years) and social discount rates (1, 3, and 5 percent), which were tested for sensitivity of the estimated CE ratios. Effectiveness of VFS was estimated using fish IBIs and riparian forest cover from 49 first‐order to fifth‐order stream reaches. Half‐log structures had been installed for approximately two years in the UW prior to the study and provided a basis for estimates of cost and maintenance. Cost effectiveness ratios for VFS decreased from $387 to $277 per 100 m for a 1 percent increase in IBI scores from first‐to fifth‐order streams with 3 percent discount and 30‐year recovery. This cost weighted by proportion of stream orders was $360. The ratio decreased with decreasing time of recovery and discount rate. Based on installation costs and an assumption of equal recovery rates, half‐logs were two‐thirds to one‐half as cost‐effective as VFS. Half‐logs would be a cost‐effective supplement to VFS in low order streams if they can be proven to recover IBI scores faster than VFS do. This study provides baseline data and a framework for planning and determining the cost of stream restoration.     

应用生物配体模型研究湘江水体中铜的生物有效性

为评估湘江水体中铜的生物有效性,通过铜对青鳉的急性毒性实验确定铜对青鳉的半致死浓度(LC₅₀),然后利用生物配体模型(Biotic Ligand Model, BLM)确定青鳉的累积半致死浓度(LA₅₀)。同时对湘江水样的预测结果表明,铜对青鳉的LA₅₀为12.43 nmol?gw^-1;BLM预测的与实验观测的LC₅₀差异倍数小于2,表明BLM预测结果非常准确。在此基础上预测铜对青鳉LC₅₀预测范围为344.70～761.96 μg?L^-1。湘江各点水质最终急性值(FAV)相差不大(11.04～14.25 μg?L^-1),但水中溶解态铜含量相差较大(0.29～10.48 μg?L^-1),同时毒性单位值(TU)相差较大(0.06～1.48 μg?L^-1),其中最小值在舂陵水入湘江下游采样断面,最大值在株洲断面。在全部调查断面中,只有株洲断面TU大于1(1.48),说明株洲断面水中铜含量超过了该断面水中BLM确定的标准最大浓度1.48倍。     

Spatial-Scale Effects on Relative Importance of Physical Habitat Predictors of Stream Health

A common theme in recent landscape studies is the comparison of riparian and watershed land use as predictors of stream health. The objective of this study was to compare the performance of reach-scale habitat and remotely assessed watershed-scale habitat as predictors of stream health over varying spatial extents. Stream health was measured with scores on a fish index of biotic integrity (IBI) using data from 95 stream reaches in the Eastern Corn Belt Plain (ECBP) ecoregion of Indiana. Watersheds hierarchically nested within the ecoregion were used to regroup sampling locations to represent varying spatial extents. Reach habitat was represented by metrics of a qualitative habitat evaluation index, whereas watershed variables were represented by riparian forest, geomorphology, and hydrologic indices. The importance of reach- versus watershed-scale variables was measured by multiple regression model adjusted-R² and best subset comparisons in the general linear statistical framework. Watershed models had adjusted-R² ranging from 0.25 to 0.93 and reach models had adjusted-R² ranging from 0.09 to 0.86. Better-fitting models were associated with smaller spatial extents. Watershed models explained about 15% more variation in IBI scores than reach models on average. Variety of surficial geology contributed to decline in model predictive power. Results should be interpreted bearing in mind that reach habitat was qualitatively measured and only fish assemblages were used to measure stream health. Riparian forest and length-slope (LS) factor were the most important watershed-scale variables and mostly positively correlated with IBI scores, whereas substrate and riffle-pool quality were the important reach-scale variables in the ECBP.     

ADAPTING EXISTING MODELS TO EXAMINE EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL CONSERVATION PROGRAMS ON STREAM HABITAT QUALITY1

Annual expenditures by the federal government in the United States for agricultural conservation programs increased about 80 percent with passage of the 2002 Farm Bill. However, environmental benefits of these programs have not been quantified. A national project is under way to estimate the effect of conservation practices on environmental resources. The watershed models intended for use in that project are focused on water quantity and quality and have minimal habitat assessment capability. Major impairments to aquatic ecosystems in many watersheds consist of physical habitat degradation, not water quality, suggesting that current models for this national initiative do not address one of the most significant aspects of aquatic ecosystem degradation. Currently used models contain some components relevant to aquatic habitat, and this paper describes specific components that should be added to allow rudimentary stream habitat quality assessments. At least six types of variables could be examined for ecological impact: land use, streamflow, water temperature, streambed material type, large woody debris, and hydraulic conditions at base flow. All of these variables are influenced by the presence, location, and quality of buffers. Generation of stream corridor ecological or habitat quality indices might contribute to assessments of the success or failure of conservation programs. Additional research is needed to refine procedures for combining specific measures of stream habitat into ecologically meaningful indices.