Value of information in product recovery decisions: a Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question ‘what is its value?’ is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information.     

A user evaluation of biodegradable cutlery

This paper summarizes a study evaluating the acceptance and perceived performance of disposable cutlery made from starch-based biodegradable resins relative to nondegradable polystyrene cutlery. Two hundred forty-three sailors onboard three U.S. Navy vessels ate their lunch using either biodegradable cutlery made with resins manufactured by one of two commercial companies or polystyrene cutlery. The cutlery was rated on several sensory and performance dimensions as well as for overall acceptability. Results indicated that sailors rated both the biodegradable and the polystyrene utensils as easy to hold. There were also no differences in the perceived ease of using each of the spoons. However, compared to the polystyrene utensils, both types of biodegradable utensils were viewed as less sturdy, as having a less attractive color, and as being less acceptable overall. The biodegradable forks and knives were also rated as more difficult to use for piercing and cutting food than the polystyrene ones. In addition, several significant differences emerged between the two types of biodegradable cutlery. The results are discussed in terms of the need for continued consumer testing of products developed from biodegradable polymeric materials.     

玉.玉文化.旅游

开发旅游新产品，是促进我国旅游业不断迈上新台阶需要研究解决的问题之一。本文通过作者实施踏勘和检索有关文献，阐述了玉的种类及其主要产地的状况，并揭示它新蕴涵的文化内容。     

THE OPTIMAL TIME TO START THE OPERATION OF A DESALTING PLANT IN ISRAEL1

The study contains the methodology of finding the optimal time to start the operation of a desalting plant or any other non conventional source of water for agricultural use in Israel. The essence of the methodology is the moving equilibrium price and quantity of agricultural products. The market of agricultural products is represented by a single demand curve and a supply curve which is derived from the agricultural sector production function. Both the demand for and the supply of agricultural products functions are shifting over time. The marginal value product of water is the critical value that determines the optimal time of a desalting plant. The study is static in the sense that dynamic aspects per se are not dealt with-e.g. learning by doing of building and operating desalting plants. The empirical results although used for illustrative purposes can be used as reference points for other detailed and more ‘exact’ studies on water desalination.     

池州市旅游产品开发探讨

从旅游资源、交通区位、旅游产业基础3个方面分析了池州旅游产品开发条件，指出了池州旅游产品开发存在着旅游产品结构单一、文化内涵挖掘不够、市场营销乏力、旅游产品空间布局不合理等问题，构建了两大品牌、八大系列、六条特色旅游线路的多层次旅游产品体系，最后提出了池州旅游产品开发的思路：规划先行，优化布局；科学定位，错位开发；区域联动，借力开发。     

世界旅游精品建设目标下的张家界旅游环境管理对策研究

建设世界旅游精品是张家界制定的旅游业发展的战略目标，一流的旅游环境条件是实现这一目标的必备条件。然而，张家界目前的旅游环境与世界旅游精品存在差距，环境管理中存在基础性工作、基础性研究比较薄弱、制度不够健全等方面的问题，影响了环境管理效率。在分析研究张家界环境管理中存在问题的基础上，针对性地提出保护、改善环境的对策，是实现世界旅游精品战略目标的基础工作。     

对应分析在CFIT事故致因研究中的应用

为揭示可控飞行撞地(CFIT)事故致因规律,根据Reason-SHEL模型得出的10个CFIT事故致因因子,分析从飞行安全基金会数据库中整理出的2006—2011年间40起CFIT事故。在此基础上建立CFIT事故年份-成因列联表,再利用SPSS软件对表格进行对应分析。将事故成因和年份同时反映在二维散点图中,实现数据可视化。最后对图形进行向量、圆心接近点以及区域化等3项分析。根据结果得出,CFIT事故的主成因是人因操作和外界环境;随着年份增加,飞行员状态(药物/疲劳、经验不足)对造成CFIT事故的重要性越来越明显;不同年份有不同的重要致因因子。     

基于投入产出分析的虚拟水研究综述及展望

将国内外基于投入产出模型的虚拟水研究进行系统概括,认为按研究层面可以归纳为区域之间的虚拟水贸易和产业间部门用水关联两方面,并指出:(1)目前基于投入产出分析技术的虚拟水研究基本建立在价值型投入产出模型的基础上,实际上将产业虚拟水替代了原本产品虚拟水的概念.(2)目前针对工业品、服务品的虚拟水量化研究不足,并未独立研究非农产品虚拟水量化时的差异性.最后文章提出产业生态学中近年来发展的混合生命周期评价方法(Hybrid life-cycle assessment,HLCA).     

森林保险支付意愿及影响因素分析——基于异质性营林主体视角

基于期望效用函数理论分析了异质性营林主体的森林保险支付意愿及差异,并以传统小林农和新型林业经营主体为研究对象,以福建省382户传统小林农和88户新型林业经营主体的调研数据为基础,综合运用条件估值法、卡方检验及Cox比例风险模型,对异质性营林主体的森林保险支付意愿与差异及支付意愿影响因素进行对比与分析。研究表明：传统小林农和新型林业经营主体的森林保险意愿支付水平存在显著差异,在1000~2500元/亩保障水平下,传统小林农的意愿支付水平分别为1.911元/亩、2.941元/亩、3.532元/亩及3.979元/亩,新型林业经营主体为1.632元/亩、3.971元/亩、5.809元/亩及6.864元/亩;两类营林主体的支付意愿均随保额的提高而提高,但新型林业经营主体的提升幅度远高于小林农。异质性营林主体的森林保险支付意愿影响因素也存在明显差别,这与其在森林保险认知特征、林业生产经营特征、林业灾损特征、森林保险产品评价特征等方面存在显著差异有关。此外,林地面积对两类营林主体支付意愿均具有显著影响,规模化、集约化的林业生产经营可促进林业经营主体的森林保险愿意支付水平。