Steel consumption and economic activity in the UK: The integration and cointegration debate

This research examines whether a long-run stationary equilibrium relationship holds between economic activity and the consumption of crude steel within the UK. Using the theory of fractionally integrated and cointegrated processes, and allowing for the possibility that the equilibrium path changes abruptly at occasional points in time, it is possible to determine if steel consumption and economic activity follow a common stochastic trend or whether the two series randomly drift apart over time. Evidence is found to support such a long term relationship. This result is at odds with the conclusions drawn by previous researchers in the area. The reason for this difference may be due to these researchers concentrating only on I(0) and I(1) specifications, without consideration of fractional possibilities and also to a failure to account for structural breaks in the equilibrium relationship. Such conclusions are made within the framework of the ARFIMA methodology that yields reliable inferences on the degree of fractional integration and cointegration. Critical values for fractional contegration with an ARFIMA model in the presence of structural breaks are also derived in this paper.     

An uncertainty based multi-criteria ranking system for open pit mining cut-off grade strategy selection

Cut-off grade strategy (COGS) is a concept that directly influences the financial, technical, economical, and environmental issues in relation to the exploitation of a mineral resource. Despite the simple definition of cut-off grade, the COGS problem is one of the complex and complicated problems in the mine planning process. From the optimization point of view, the COGS with an objective of maximizing the present value of future cash flows is a non-linear and a non-convex problem that even in its deterministic form can be solved using approximate optimization methods. This optimization problem will also be more complex and complicated under uncertainty conditions. This paper proposes an uncertainty based multi-criteria ranking system to investigate the problem of COGS selection considering metal price and geological uncertainties. The proposed system aims at selection of the best COGS among technically feasible alternative COGSs under uncertainty circumstances. Our developed system is based on integrating metal price and geological uncertainties as well as operating flexibility to close the mine early. We incorporate this operating flexibility into the proposed system using a Monte Carlo based real options (RO) valuation model. For this purpose, in addition to the expected value, other risk criteria are considered to rank the alternatives. These risk criteria include abilities of strategies in producing extra profits, minimizing losses, and achieving the predefined goals of the production. In this study, the technically possible COGSs are generated using the Lane comprehensive algorithm. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, we utilize data of an Iranian gold mine. Results show that the proposed system outperforms conventional methods in the sense that it shows significantly lower average mis-ranking than the other methods and also selects a strategy with a higher value. The sensitivity analysis of the proposed system relative to the gold price shows that the system is highly dependent on the parameters of the stochastic process used to model the evolution of the metal price. Therefore, special consideration should be given in estimating stochastic process parameters.     

Studies of the effects of temperatures and solar radiation on volatilization,mineralization and binding of 14c‐DDT in soil under laboratory conditions

Abstract

The effects of temperatures and solar radiation on the dissipation of ¹⁴C‐p,p'‐DDT from a loam soil was studied by quantifying volatilization, mineralization and binding. The major DDT loss occurred by volatilization, which was 1.8 times more at 45^oC than at ambient temperature (30°C). Mineralization of DDT slowly increased with time but it decreased slightly with increase in temperature. Binding of DDT to soil was found to be less at higher temperatures (35 and 45°C) as compared to ambient temperature. Degradation of DDT to DDE was faster at higher temperatures.

Exposure of non‐sterilized and sterilized soils treated with ¹⁴C‐DDT to sunlight in quartz and dark tubes for 6 weeks resulted in significant losses. Volatilization and mineralization in quartz tubes were more as compared to dark tubes. The volatilized organics from the quartz tubes contained larger amounts of p,p'‐DDE than the dark tubes. Further, higher rates of volatilization were found in non‐sterilized soils than in sterilized soils. The results suggest that faster dissipation of DDT from soil under local conditions relates predominantly to increased volatilization as influenced by high temperature and intense solar radiation.     

Comparative studies of the fate of atrazine‐14C and pentachlorophenol‐14C in various laboratory and outdoor soil‐plant systems

Abstract

Mass balance and fate of atrazine‐ ¹⁴C and pentachlorophenol‐ ¹⁴C (PCP‐ ¹⁴C) were studied in short‐term tests in a closed aerated laboratory soil‐plant system, using two concentrations in soil and two plant species, as well as under outdoor conditions for one vegetation period. In the laboratory, for both pesticides bioaccu‐mulation factors of radiocarbon taken up by the roots into plants were low. They were higher for lower (1 ppm) than for higher soil concentrations (6 ppm for atra‐zine, 4 ppm for pentachlorophenol) and varied with the plant species. Mineralization to ¹⁴CO₂ in soil was negatively related to soil concentration only for PCP‐ ¹⁴C. Conversion rates in soil including the formation of soil‐bound residues were higher for the lower concentrations of both pesticides than for the higher ones; conversion rates in plants were species‐dependent. In 14 terms of CO₂ formation and of conversion rates, PCP was less persistent in soil than was atrazine. For both pesticides, laboratory data on conversion and mineralization gave a rough prediction of their persistence in soil under long‐term outdoor conditions, whereas bio‐accumulation factors in plants under long‐term outdoor conditions could not be predicted by short‐term laboratory experiments.     

基于AVR单片机的Internet联网安防报警主机设计

介绍了一种基于AVR单片机的一种Internet联网智能安防报警主机的硬件及软件设计。安防报警主机以AVR系列的ATmega16单片机为控制核心,以ENC28J60作为Internet接口的以太网控制器控制芯片,当布防区域有警情或报警主机有异常发生时,可以即时通过Internet对预先设定报警服务主机进行报警。通过Internet,用户可以随时随地通过PC控制主机对远端报警主机进行布防、撤防及查询状态等控制。本报警主机具有组网方便、监测范围广、报警可靠性高等特点。     

基于FY2C卫星数据的藏北高原降水估算研究

如何确切的掌握降水的时空分布,对区域气候、水文和生态应用等至关重要。以藏北高原典型区为研究区,在大量地面实况降水观测数据与对长时间序列FY 2C 影像光谱特征和云图特征分析的基础上,获取卫星降水模拟参数特征集以刻画云降水的发生与发展过程,选用最值归一化方法对不同量纲云图特征参数进行归一化处理。构建基于三层前向型反向传播神经网络的卫星降水估算模型,用于该地域降水估算,并采用多指标体系分析模型的降水模拟精度。结果表明：静止气象卫星红外波段能较精确地揭示云的降水机理,较高时间分辨率遥感图像可以监测云图的变化细节,并获取能够反映云图降水特征的降水模拟参数;人工神经网络能较好地刻画该地域卫星降水特征的非线性规律;三层前向型反向传播神经网络卫星降水估算模型的估算结果与雨量计实测值间的相关性可以达到0.57。模型估算结果系统性的低估偏小,预示着对该地域弱降水强度将有较好的指示性     

The fate of the poor in growing mineral and energy economies

There are frequent suggestions that countries specializing in mineral and energy extraction have a type of growth that is bad for the poor. Others claim that extraction-led growth is particularly good for the poor. Both claims are made without the support of substantial empirical evidence. This paper uses longitudinal data on income growth by quintile in 57 developed and developing countries to statistically assess how mineral and energy extraction has affected the relationship between growth and the poor. We can find no evidence that the data support either the claim that extraction-led growth is good for the poor or that extraction-led growth is bad for the poor. This finding does not rule out that extractive activity can have special positive or negative impacts on the poor in some countries or regions. Rather, it simply brings to light that such effects are not evident as a persistent statistical phenomenon in the national level data that are available, which may be why the debate tends to move along without resolution.     

Using discrete choice experiments to assess the preferences of new mining workforce to commute or relocate to the Surat Basin in Australia

Two choice modelling experiments have been used to examine how residents of a major urban centre would consider commuting or relocation options if they were to consider taking up employment in a rapidly growing resource region. The case study area focused on the Surat Basin in southern Queensland where recent increases in mining activity involve both coal mining and coal seam gas extraction. The preferences of residents of Brisbane, the state capital and closest major centre to the Surat Basin, were assessed in the experiment. The results identified increased salary as the most important factor, but respondents were also concerned about potentially offsetting influences such as high living costs and accommodation affordability/availability. Respondents indicated that the additional salary needed to take up employment in the Surat Basin was substantially higher for relocation options than for FIFO options.     

黄姜组培快繁技术试验研究

分别以黄姜茎段、叶片、块根为外植体,进行无菌系建立、芽分化、生根等试验,探讨黄姜组培快繁技术.结果表明:(1)茎段在①MS BA1.0 mg.L-1 NAA0.2 mg.L-1(单位下同);③MS BA2.0 NAA0.2;⑤B5 BA1.0 NAA0.2;⑦B5 BA2.0 NAA0.2四个培养基上培养,均能诱导出愈伤组织,但尤以⑦号培养基长势最佳;而在这四个培养基上接种的叶片因为全被污染,无愈伤组织形成.(2)块根在②MS BA1.0 NAA0.5;④MS BA2.0 NAA0.5;⑥B5 BA1.0 NAA0.5;⑧B5 BA2.0 NAA0.5四个培养基上均不能诱导成愈伤组织.(3)愈伤组织在①~⑧号共八个培养基上均能分化出芽,但分化率不一,以③号最高(达100%),④号最低(25.0%).(4)当丛生芽长至高约3~4 cm时,转接到以MS或1/2MS为基本培养基、附加有不同浓度NAA和IBA的培养基中,进行生根培养.生长素NAA与IBA配合均能诱导生根,NAA的浓度增高对根的诱导有抑制作用,而且使苗的生长受阻,出现叶片卷曲现象,用1/2MS与用MS相比,用1/2MS生根更粗壮.(5)将经过炼苗的生根试管苗移栽到混有河沙和砻糠灰(体积比为1:2)的复合基质中,移栽后35 d成活率达到87%以上.     

Depth profiles of radiocarbon and carbon isotopic compositions of organic matter and CO2 in a forest soil

Depth profiles of the specific activities of (14)C and carbon isotopic compositions (Delta(14)C, delta(13)C) in soil organic matter and soil CO(2) in a Japanese larch forest were determined. For investigating the transport of CO(2) in soil, specific activities of (14)C, Delta(14)C and delta(13)C in the organic layer, and atmospheric CO(2) in the same forest area were also determined. The specific activity of (14)C and Delta(14)C in the soil organic matter decreased with the increase in depth of 0-60cm, while that of soil CO(2) did not vary greatly at a soil depth of 13-73cm and was more prevalent than that of atmospheric CO(2). Peaks of specific activities of (14)C appeared at the depth of 0-4cm and Delta(14)C values were positive in the depth range from 0 to 15cm. These results suggest that the present soil at a depth of 0-4cm had been produced from the mid-1950s up until 1963, and the bomb C had reached the depth of 15cm in the objective soil area. The delta(13)C in the soil organic matter increased at the depth of 0-55cm, while that of soil CO(2) collected on 8 November 2004 decreased rapidly at the depth of 0-13cm and only slightly at the depth of 53-73cm. By combining the Delta(14)C and delta(13)C of the respective components and using the Keeling plot approach it was made clear that the entering of atmospheric CO(2) showed a large contribution to soil CO(2) at the depth of 0-13cm and a negligible contribution at the depth of 53-73cm for soil air collected on 8 November 2004. Respiration of live roots was presumed to be the main source of soil CO(2) at the depth of 53-73cm on 8 November 2004.