基于WRF-Chem和EMI指数的新冠肺炎疫情期间沈阳市大气污染物浓度变化原因分析

利用2015—2020年沈阳市空气质量监测数据、地面气象观测资料、环境气象评估指数（EMI）产品、NCEP再分析资料及WRF-Chem数值模式,分析新冠肺炎疫情防控期间沈阳市主要大气污染物和气象要素的变化情况,研究空气质量对污染物减排和气象要素变化的响应.结果表明：疫情防控导致沈阳市PM_2.5、PM₁₀和NO₂质量浓度下降,但O₃质量浓度小幅增加;PM_2.5和NO₂对人为减排的响应更敏感;防控期内沈阳市气象条件有利于污染物的清除,气象条件使PM_2.5质量浓度下降16.37%,防控减排措施导致PM_2.5质量浓度下降22.96%;在疫情防控的背景下,不利的气象条件和污染物排放的突然增加共同造成重污染天气发生,其中不利气象条件的贡献大于排放增加的贡献;减排措施对防控期间重污染天气过程污染物峰值浓度有明显的削弱作用.     

厦门湾空气质量对新冠疫情管控的响应

通过对厦门湾城市群在COVID-19封锁前后6周内（2020-01-11~2020-02-21）的空气污染物浓度变化进行分析,以确定影响本区域空气质量的主要人为污染源.在春节假期与封锁叠加期间,SO₂、NO₂、CO、PM₁₀和PM_2.5浓度相比于节前1周的下降幅度分别为6%~22%、53%~70%、34%~48%、47%~64%和53%~60%,而O₃浓度变化没有一致的规律性;与2018~2019年历史同期相比,PM_2.5、PM₁₀、CO和NO₂的下降幅度更大,但SO₂的下降幅度相当;在复工复产后,NO₂的反弹幅度最大（38%~138%）,远高于SO₂（2%~42%）,显示交通源相对于固定源更易受到疫情管控的影响;春节后风速增大和降水增多也为SO₂、NO₂和PM的下降提供了正向影响.利用反距离插值权重法,得到管控前后厦门湾城市群不同污染物的空间分布变化特征,显示NO₂浓度高值区的变化与交通源高度相关,CO和SO₂空间分布特征保持稳定,复工后PM_2.5和PM₁₀在人口与路网密集区变化不明显,而在工地相对集中区域有明显上升,O₃空间分布的低值区与NO₂的高值区具有较好的空间匹配性,显示NO₂对O₃滴定作用明显,可为进一步O₃污染减排措施的制定提供参考.     

Screening maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels and human parvovirus antibodies

The association between gestational infection with human parvovirus (B19) and fetal loss has increased interest in this virus and demand for diagnostic testing. However, serological assays for B19 are not yet widely available. Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) testing is commonly used during the second trimester to screen for various fetal defects. We attempted to determine whether an elevated level of MSAFP would be an appropriate indication for B19-specific tests. Over a 26-month period, MSAFP tests were performed at Michigan State University for 21 392 women. Sera remaining after that testing were stored frozen. Of these, 22 case samples—from women with MSAFP levels greater than 3·0 multiples of the median (MOM) and pregnancies that ended in fetal loss—and 44 matched control samples—from women with MSAFP levels greater than 0·4 and less than 2·2 MOM and live births at term—were tested for B19 antibodies. None of the 66 samples was IgM positive, while 33 (50 per cent) were IgG positive. The presence of IgG was not significantly associated with case or control status (matched odds ratio=0·77, 95 per cent confidence interval 0·28–2·11). These findings are consistent with other studies indicating prior infection in approximately half of adults and suggest that elevated screening MSAFP levels, in the absence of other evidence of B19 infection, should not prompt B19-specific testing.     

Ring 19 mosaicism detected during prenatal diagnosis

A ring chromosome 19 was found in 14 of 20 metaphases (67 per cent) derived from amniotic fluid cell cultures following amniocentesis because of increased maternal age. Elective termination of the pregnancy revealed a hypotrophic female fetus with mild dysmorphic signs, but no congenital malformations. The case is discussed in relation to three reports in the literature of ring chromosome 19 mosaicism in a phenotypically normal girl, a mentally retarded man, and a boy with normal psychomotor development and minor dysmorphic features.     

Environment and COVID-19 incidence: A critical review

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented worldwide health crisis. Many previous research studies have found and investigated its links with one or some natural or human environmental factors. However, a review on the relationship between COVID-19 incidence and both the natural and human environment is still lacking. This review summarizes the inter-correlation between COVID-19 incidence and environmental factors. Based on keyword searching, we reviewed 100 relevant peer-reviewed articles and other research literature published since January 2020. This review is focused on three main findings. One, we found that individual environmental factors have impacts on COVID-19 incidence, but with spatial heterogeneity and uncertainty. Two, environmental factors exert interactive effects on COVID-19 incidence. In particular, the interactions of natural factors can affect COVID-19 transmission in micro- and macro- ways by impacting SARS-CoV-2 survival, as well as human mobility and behaviors. Three, the impact of COVID-19 incidence on the environment lies in the fact that COVID-19-induced lockdowns caused air quality improvement, wildlife shifts and socio-economic depression. The additional value of this review is that we recommend future research perspectives and adaptation strategies regarding the interactions of the environment and COVID-19. Future research should be extended to cover both the effects of the environment on the COVID-19 pandemic and COVID-19-induced impacts on the environment. Future adaptation strategies should focus on sustainable environmental and public policy responses.     

Identifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on driving behavior using naturalistic driving data and time series forecasting

Introduction: COVID-19 has disrupted daily life and societal flow globally since December 2019; it introduced measures such as lockdown and suspension of all non-essential movements. As a result, driving activity was also significantly affected. Still, to-date, a quantitative assessment of the effect of COVID-19 on driving behavior during the lockdown is yet to be provided. This gap forms the motivation for this paper, which aims at comparing observed values concerning three indicators (average speed, speeding, and harsh braking), with forecasts based on their corresponding observations before the lockdown in Greece. Method: Time series of the three indicators were extracted using a specially developed smartphone application and transmitted to a back-end platform between 01/01/2020 and 09/05/2020, a time period containing normal operations, COVID-19 spreading, and the full lockdown period in Greece. Based on the collected data, XGBoost was employed to identify the most influential COVID-19 indicators, and Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were developed for obtaining forecasts on driving behavior. Results: Results revealed the intensity of the impact of COVID-19 on driving, especially on average speed, speeding, and harsh braking per 100 km. More specifically, speeds were found to increase by 2.27 km/h on average compared to the forecasted evolution, while harsh braking/100 km increased to almost 1.51 on average. On the bright side, road crashes in Greece were reduced by 49% during the months of COVID-19 compared to the non-COVID-19 period.     

历史传染病疫情的环境与气候特征初探及对新冠肺炎疫情的思考

新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19,简称“新冠肺炎”）疫情的暴发与流行对人类社会安全造成严重危害,同时也考验着世界各国公共卫生系统应对大型突发性传染病的防控能力.对历史传染病疫情暴发和流行的环境与气候特征进行总结,对于新冠肺炎疫情的科学研究及防控具有重要的参考价值.结果表明:①历史上人际传播的冠状病毒科、正粘病毒科传染病多暴发于北半球亚热带季风气候地区及冬春季节,而黄病毒科传染病多暴发在热带地区及高温多雨的夏秋季节.②全球变暖和极端天气催生影响传染病的暴发及传播.③人类对生态系统平衡的影响,迫使病毒宿主栖息地迁移和不同病毒宿主聚集,增加病毒变异概率和传染病暴发风险.在此基础上,提出了对新冠肺炎疫情的思考,认为适宜的气候因素可能利于疫情的暴发与流行,而热带国家疫情的暴发则说明需要重新审视气候、环境条件及生态因素对新型冠状病毒的影响.研究结果将为新冠肺炎疫情的防控和未来传染病疫情的预测及阻断提供参考和借鉴.      

甲型流感的流行与防控分析及其对新冠肺炎疫情的启示

目前新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情在全球流行,对人类生命健康造成威胁.对甲型流感这一常见传染病进行流行特征、影响因素和防控措施分析,回顾总结全球为防控甲型流感做出的努力及相关科学研究成果,为新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情提供防控经验和研究思路.结果表明:①甲型流感呈季节性流行,受气候、社会、政治和文化等多因素影响,在低温低湿、人口密集的环境中表现出强流行性.②甲型流感防控研究工作主要包括季节性流感病毒监测、流感病毒的生态学研究、广谱中和抗体及通用疫苗的研究、应对流感大流行的病原学风险评估四方面,其中季节性流感病毒监测是制定公共卫生政策及后续研究的核心防控措施.③与甲型流感类似,新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行受温度等气候因素影响,同时社会、政治、文化等因素也影响其传播,亟需借鉴较成熟的甲型流感的防控经验、技术和平台.建议在加强病毒监测的同时,深入开展病毒生态学研究、病原学风险评估和药物开发,对完善疫情防控工作和预警预测未来可能出现的二次暴发及传播至关重要.研究结果将为新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情和未来传染病疫情的防控及预测预警提供参考和研究思路.      

Toxicity assays of ladybirds using natural predators

Nestling blue titsParus caeruleus L. were given diets containing homogenized ladybirds, to assess the effects of their chemical defences. The 2spot, 10spot and water ladybirds produced no apparent toxic effects when small numbers were given at regular intervals.The pine and kidney-spot ladybirds slightly inhibit growth and may be toxic to very young nestlings. The Water ladybird is extremely distasteful to this predator, despite its lack of toxicity. The results are discussed with reference to the proposed Müllerian and Batesian mimetic relationships between the ladybird species.     

金属薄板抗7.62 mm普通弹枪击性能的实验研究

目的 评估覆钢板复杂结构的抗枪击性能,开展薄钢板抗枪击性能研究.方法 采用56式步枪人工发射方式,分别开展4、8 mm厚06Cr19Ni10单层钢板与8、16 mm厚30CrMoA单层钢板以及06Cr19Ni10与30CrMoA(4 mm+8 mm与8 mm+8 mm两种厚度组合)双层钢板抗7.62 mm普通弹的枪击试验,测量子弹着靶速度与穿靶余速,观测靶板的破坏模式,理论分析单层钢板的弹道极限速度.结果 7.62 mm普通弹不能穿透16 mm厚30CrMoA单层钢板以及所有参试双层钢板,其余参试单层钢板均能被穿透.基于Recht-Ipson模型,4、8 mm厚06Cr19Ni10与8 mm厚30CrMoA单层钢板弹道极限速度分别为511.7、498.6、684.3 m/s.结论 薄钢板随厚度的增加,破坏模式从韧性扩孔向塞块推出转变,均为韧性破坏模式.强度较高的背衬板有助于提高前钢板的抗侵彻性能.