中国城镇碳排放的区域差异和影响因素

修正了IPCC关于电力碳排放系数的计算方法,根据中国(省市)能源平衡表估算了1995-2008年中国30个省市的城镇碳排放,划分了高、中、低三个不同排放区域,分析城镇碳排放的区域差异,采用STIRPAT模型分析城镇碳排放及区域差异的影响因素.结果表明,城镇碳排放是中国碳排放的主体;城镇碳排放总体快速增长趋势,2001年后表现尤为明显;中国城镇碳排放存在很强的区域差异,2008年高排放区域的八个省市城镇碳排放总量占全国城镇碳排放总量的50％以上;城镇居民人均收入对城镇碳排放影响最大,然后是城镇化率和能源强度,人口总量对碳排放影响较小;城镇居民人均收入增加、城市化进程不断推进、能源强度降低对城镇碳排放的影响存在区域差异,这种影响强度的差异是导致城镇碳排放存在区域差异的主要原因.一方面,我国城镇居民收入的不断提高和城市化进程的推进决定了城镇发展需要一定的碳排放空间,另一方面,城镇需要走可持续的低碳发展道路.     

二氧化碳排放的国际比较及对我国低碳经济发展的启示

首先分析了我国二氧化碳排放的基本情况,指出当前二氧化碳排放增长率虽然有所下降,但环境形势依然严峻。然后从国家碳排放总量、人均CO2排放量、单位GDP二氧化碳排放量、国家累积碳排放和人均累积碳排放几个方面对我国二氧化碳排放水平与国际水平进行了比较,并结合节能减排目标对我国低碳经济的发展提出了相关建议。     

浙江省碳排放时空格局及影响因素研究

利用2005~2010年浙江省各县市区的社会经济数据和能耗数据,测算了各县市区的碳排放总量、人均碳排放量和地均碳排放量,采用空间自相关方法揭示了县域尺度下相邻县市区碳排放指标的空间关联性,运用地理加权回归模型定量描述了各县市区碳排放总量影响因素的空间异质性。研究结果表明:(1)研究期内,浙江省的碳排放总量从30 486万t增加到49 559万t。人均碳排放量和地均碳排放量也均呈增长趋势,且空间差异显著。(2)各县市区碳排放总量、人均碳排放量和地均碳排放量均存在较强的空间自相关性,总体上浙北浙东呈高高集聚,浙西南呈低低集聚。(3)人口和投资是影响碳排放总量的重要因素,且存在空间异质性。投资对浙西南碳排放的影响逐渐增大。     

金融节能、金融发展对碳排放变化的影响研究

本文将金融节能与金融发展同时引入传统LMDI分解模型,并融合脱钩弹性指数,分析了两者对碳排放变化的影响机理。在此基础上,本文还检验了1997—2015年中国29个省区金融节能与金融发展的碳排放效应。研究发现:首先,尽管1997—2015年中国碳排放规模的扩张趋势较为明显,短期来看,这一演变仍然大体经历了三个阶段,即碳排放增量持续扩张期、碳排放增量波动下降期以及碳排放增量平稳期。其次,不仅金融节能、金融发展以及经济增长是在短期和长期诱发中国碳排放变化的三个最主要因素,而且前两者对中国碳排放变化的影响还大于后者。再次,金融节能对中国碳排放变化的短期和长期作用方向始终与金融发展对中国碳排放变化的短期和长期作用方向相反。最后,金融节能和金融发展与中国碳排放变化之间在短期内基本维持弱脱钩或强负脱钩两种状态,而在长期呈现强负脱钩状态,通过分解这些脱钩弹性状态的诱因,不仅直接影响和交互影响的作用方向始终相反,而且两者还分别在金融节能与中国碳排放脱钩弹性变动以及金融发展与中国碳排放脱钩弹性变动中发挥截然相反的作用。     

不同情境下桉树碳汇林最佳轮伐期分析

碳汇林具有碳汇价值和木材价值,最佳轮伐期是影响碳汇林收益的重要因素,但目前相关研究较少。以浙江省苍南县桉树碳汇林为研究对象,构建了同时考虑碳汇价值和木材价值的最佳轮伐期模型,并利用桉树生长模型,通过模拟计算,系统地分析了纳入模型的碳价格、贴现率、木材价格和劳动力价格等四个变量,在不同情境下,对碳汇林最佳轮伐期的影响。同时,探讨了上述变量对碳汇林收益净现值的影响。结果表明:当碳价格为55元/t、贴现率为5%、木材价格为700元/m3和劳动力价格为100元/工日时,桉树碳汇林最佳轮伐期为8年,单位面积收益净现值为99 053.80元/hm2,其中碳汇收益净现值只占8.60%;此外,碳价格、贴现率和木材价格对碳汇林最佳轮伐期负相关,而劳动力价格与碳汇林最佳轮伐期正相关。     

京津冀地区电力部门CO2排放因素分解分析

基于LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method)方法分析2001-2016年京津冀地区电力部门CO2排放的8个影响因素,考虑了京津冀地区电力部门从生产投入、转换、传输到消费的整个过程;并分析了2001-2016年影响京、津、冀各地区CO2排放的各因素贡献值。结果表明,1)2001-2016年京津冀地区电力部门CO2排放总体呈现递增趋势,2012年出现负增长;河北省电力部门对京津冀电力部门CO2排放贡献最大,2001-2016年累计CO2排放变化量为145.70 Mt,但河北省电力部门的减排潜力巨大;2)人均GDP效应和人口规模效应是促进京津冀地区电力部门CO2排放增长的主要因素,2001-2016年累计贡献值分别为261.86 Mt和36.47 Mt;3)用电效率效应和电力输入输出效应是京津冀地区电力部门CO2排放量增长的主要抑制作用,2001-2016年累计贡献值分别为-49.40 Mt和-47.93 Mt;4)造成京、津、冀电力部门CO2排放差异的主要因素是人均GDP、化石能源转换效率和用电效率。     

Modelling of the plume rise phenomenon due to warehouse or pool fires considering penetration of the mixing layer

The present paper describes the theory behind the “plume rise from warehouse or pool fires model” as implemented in the software package EFFECTS. This model simulates the rising of buoyant plumes due to the density difference between the hot combustion products and the ambient air. The plume rise model calculates the maximum height at which the released material will be in equilibrium with the density of the air, and presents the resulting trajectory of the plume, including hazard distances to specific concentration threshold levels. These parameters will be determined depending on the wind speed, atmospheric stability class and the fire's convective heat production, leading to potential penetration of the mixing layer.Additionally, the penetration of the smoke plume through the temperature inversion layer is assessed. If the convective heat of production is sufficient to penetrate the mixing layer, the smoke plume will be trapped above the mixing layer. When this occurs, the (potentially toxic) combustion products do not disperse back below the mixing layer, thus, the individuals at ground level are not exposed to the harmful combustion products. If the convective heat of production is not sufficient to penetrate the mixing layer, the smoke plume may experience the so-called reflection phenomena which will trap the smoke plume below the mixing layer. This could have more dangerous consequences for individuals who then might be exposed to harmful combustion products at ground level.Moreover, this paper includes the validation of the model against experimental data as well as to other widely validated mathematical models. The experiments and mathematical models used for the validation are described, and a detailed discussion of the results is included, with a statistical and graphical comparison against the field data.     

A land use database and examples of biogenic isoprene emission estimates for the state of Texas, USA

Using data from a variety of sources, land use and vegetation in Texas were mapped with a spatial resolution of approximately 1 km. Over 600 classifications were used to characterize the land use and land cover throughout the state and field surveys were performed to assign leaf biomass densities, by species, to the land cover classifications. The total leaf biomass densities associated with these land use classifications ranged from 0 to 556 g/m², with the highest assigned total and oak leaf biomass densities located in central and eastern Texas. The land cover data were used as input to a biogenic emissions model, GLOBEIS2. Estimates of biogenic emissions of isoprene based on GLOBEIS2 and the new land cover data showed significant differences when compared to biogenic isoprene emissions estimated using previous land cover data and emission estimation procedures. For example, for one typical domain in eastern Texas, total daily isoprene emissions increased by 38% with the new modeling tools. These results may ultimately affect the way in which ozone and other photochemical pollutants are modeled and evaluated in the state of Texas.     

The prevention principle

Environmentally sound manufacture does not have its source only in developing and improving the techniques for treating solid, liquid and gaseous wastes at the end of the production process. Our experience shows that more effort and capital budgets must be devoted to developing preventive measures. Although the treatment techniques have become very advanced and meet ecological requirements to a very high degree, they are now reaching the limits of their technological and economic feasibility. Environmental protection at the production site has undergone structural change in recent years. The emphasis has shifted to preventive techniques which affect the production process itself, avoiding the emergence of waste at the “end of the pipe” by preventing its formation or recycling it straight away. This integrated approach is in harmony with the demands of sustainable production. The functions of in-process environmental protection measures need to be looked at as a whole from the points of view of both environmental protection and cost-effectiveness. Some integrated methods are described.     

Portuguese inventory of dioxins and furans atmospheric emissions

This article presents the results of the most recent estimation of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofurans (PCDF) atmospheric emissions in Portugal, which has covered the period 2004–2009 and includes 27 emission sources types. The results are compared with previous emissions inventories published for Portugal. The main objective of this work is to provide relevant information about the amounts of the compounds that are released into the atmosphere in Portugal, and identify their major sources and trends.