埋地弯管不同位置泄漏的三维数值模拟

采用有限容积法,建立了埋地管道周围土壤多孔介质三维流固耦合数学模型。借助CFD软件,分别模拟了埋地弯管不同位置泄漏前后大地温度场的变化情况及泄漏油品在土壤中的运移分布规律。模拟计算结果得出:泄漏前,各种情况下大地的温度场基本相同;泄漏后,大地温度场变化明显不同,油品在土壤中的扩散分布迥异。建议采用分布式光纤温度传感技术对管道泄漏进行检测。     

架空天然气管道泄漏事故后果数值模拟研究

针对架空天然气管道泄漏引起的火灾爆炸问题,采用事件树分析泄漏扩散引起的事故后果,并在数值模拟中着重分析了模拟数学模型的选择。在三种不同泄漏孔径、两种不同风速、两种不同运行压力条件下分别应用ALHOA软件对事故后果进行数值模拟,结果表明:泄漏孔径、运行压力与危害影响范围成正比关系;在闪火和蒸气云爆炸中,风速与危害影响范围成反比关系,而风速对射流火灾的热辐射范围基本没有影响。     

三囊袋封堵器处置钻孔漏气技术研究

为了对瓦斯抽采钻孔周围的裂隙进行有效封堵,建立钻孔漏气圈模型,提出带压注浆一次封孔与漏气处置二次封孔相结合的技术方法,研制出一种既具有封孔又具有漏气处置功能的三囊袋封堵器装置,并进行了现场工业试验。结果表明:该装置成功实现了封孔和漏气处置的一体化操作,能够有效减少漏气圈面积,钻孔瓦斯浓度提高了25%～177%,抽采效果显著提高。     

Changes in CO2 flux for different recovery processes of desertification in the alpine meadows of Northwest Sichuan北大核心CSCD

Desertification has emerged as a serious threat to the alpine meadows of Northwest Sichuan in recent decades. Artificial vegetation had certain effects on desertification recovery, while how the CO2 flux changed and its reasons are still unclear. During the growing season in 2016 (i.e., from July to September), we selected the desertified alpine meadows with different recovery degrees, including the early stage of restoration, the middle stage of restoration, the late stage of restoration, and control (the unrecovered desertification meadow) as four transects. CO2 flux was measured by the instrument LI-8100, and the microenvironment factors that affected CO2 flux changes were analyzed. The results showed that the carbon sequestration function of desertified alpine meadows gradually increased with the degree of recovery. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) were -1.61, -3.55, and -4.38 μmol m-2 s-1 in the early, mid-term, and late transects, respectively, and the most dramatic changes occurred from the early stage to mid-term stage, increasing by 120.50%. Both ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil respiration (SR) were enhanced significantly with restoration (P < 0.05). In mid or late July, NEE, ER, and SR reached their maximum values, and thereafter, the indicators varied to near zero (P < 0.05). During the whole growing season, the daily dynamic in CO2 flux for the control alpine meadow was mild and retained the trend of continuous release all day, but that in the desertified alpine meadow was a single peak pattern. Moreover, with restoration process, the peak of CO2 flux increased and reached a peak in the late stage of the recovery process. The regression analysis showed that there was a significant positive correlation between CO2 flux and vegetation coverage, aboveground biomass, and soil moisture (0-5 cm) (P < 0.01), and a weak correlation with 0-5-cm soil temperature (P < 0.01). This indicates that topsoil moisture (5 cm) is a more significant factor for CO2 flux than topsoil temperature during the growing season in the restoration of desertified alpine meadows in Northwest Sichuan. In general, the vegetation recovery significantly improved the carbon-sequestration ability of the desertified alpine meadows during the growing season in Northwest Sichuan, and at the middle stage of restoration, the carbon-sequestration ability improved significantly due to vegetation restoration and increase in topsoil (0-5 cm) moisture. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.     

基于Realizable k－ε 湍流模型的氨气泄漏数值模拟研究

针对液氨泄漏事故,为了分析不同泄漏点、不同排风条件下氨气的运移规律,以便合理设置应急处置装备、采取有效措施,基于Realizable k－ε的氨气泄漏有限元数值模拟分析方法,计算了液氨泄漏质量,模拟分析了增加排风口、不同液氨泄漏口及不同液氨泄漏量的氨气扩散规律及浓度变化情况。模拟结果表明:对流排风口位置对于泄漏氨气浓度影响较大,泄漏口位置对泄漏氨气扩散影响不显著;氨气泄漏量的增加使得泄漏口垂直方向氨气浓度显著增加。     

基于改进遗传-单纯形混合算法的危险气体泄漏溯源分析

当发生危险气体泄漏时,确定其泄漏位置和泄漏源强,是制定应急方案的基础和依据之一。当无法直接确定泄漏位置、测量泄漏源强时,就需要通过有限的几个监测点,反演出可能的泄漏位置和泄漏源强,现有方法存在收敛过慢、初值敏感、参数过多等问题。描述一种结合改进遗传算法和单纯形法的IGA-NM混合算法,可用于快速反算气体泄漏的位置和源强。IGA-NM混合算法既避免了GA的收敛过慢,又避免了NM初值敏感,兼顾了全局优化。与GA、NM相比,IGA-NM混合算法的计算速度更快,计算误差更小。最后,应用IGA-NM混合算法,基于WebGIS设计了一套计算气体泄漏源强和位置的计算机程序,简化了输入参数,使用方便,可适用于气体泄漏应急监测、大气污染源溯源反查等场合     

重大毒气泄漏事故区域疏散分析系统设计与应用

为了对重大毒气泄漏事故的后果影响及相关疏散区域进行分析,构建基于GIS的重大毒气泄漏事故区域疏散分析系统,对区域疏散分析业务流程和数据流程进行分析,对系统总体结构和数据结构进行设计,并结合具体案例,进行扩散模拟,对事故影响区域以及区域疏散效果进行分析,研究结果表明:混合通知方式下的疏散效率最高,毒气泄漏事故发生后应尽早通知周边居民疏散。     

中国实现碳达峰的政策建议——基于碳定价机制模型的多情景模拟分析

碳定价机制是利用市场机制推动碳减排、减缓气候变化方案的核心内容,包括碳排放权交易和碳税等措施。尽管新冠肺炎疫情打乱了经济发展节奏,但是中国主动提高国家自主贡献力度,积极推进战略提升与政策强化。本研究构建并运用"碳定价机制模型"模拟涵盖不同主体范围及政策组合下的碳排放权交易市场运行情况,分析评估碳减排效果及经济影响,为丰富完善我国实现碳达峰的政策工具提供技术支持。     

碳中和——中国发展转型的机遇与挑战

碳中和是《巴黎协定》提出的到21世纪末在全球范围内实现人为活动排放的温室气体排放总量与大自然吸收总量相平衡,这是《联合国气候变化框架公约》应对气候变化问题的终极目标。本文从碳中和的目的、本质和进展分析入手,提出了在实现碳中和问题上中国的机遇与挑战。     

Development and optimization of an Agro-BGC ecosystem model for C4 perennial grasses

Extrapolating simulations of bioenergy crop agro-ecosystems beyond data-rich sites requires biophysically accurate ecosystem models and careful estimation of model parameters not available in the literature. To increase biophysical accuracy we added C₄ perennial grass functionality and agricultural practices to the Biome-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles) ecosystem model. This new model, Agro-BGC, includes enzyme-driven C₄ photosynthesis, individual live and dead leaf, stem, and root carbon and nitrogen pools, separate senescence and litter fall processes, fruit growth, optional annual seeding, flood irrigation, a growing degree day phenology with a killing frost option, and a disturbance handler that simulates nitrogen fertilization, harvest, fire, and incremental irrigation. To obtain spatially generalizable vegetation parameters we used a numerical method to optimize five unavailable parameters for Panicum virgatum (switchgrass) using biomass yield data from three sites: Mead, Nebraska, Rockspring, Pennsylvania, and Mandan, North Dakota. We then verified simulated switchgrass yields at three independent sites in Illinois (IL). Agro-BGC is more accurate than Biome-BGC in representing the physiology and dynamics of C₄ grass and management practices associated with agro-ecosystems. The simulated two-year average mature yields with single-site Rockspring optimization have Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of 70, 152, and 162 and biases of 43, −87, 156 g carbon m⁻² for Shabbona, Urbana, and Simpson IL, respectively. The simulated annual yields in June, August, October, December, and February have RMSEs of 114, 390, and 185 and biases of −19, −258, and 147 g carbon m⁻² for Shabbona, Urbana, and Simpson IL, respectively. These RMSE and bias values are all within the largest 90% confidence interval around respective IL site measurements. Twenty-four of twenty-six simulated annual yields with Rockspring optimization are within 95% confidence intervals of Illinois site measurements during the mature fourth and fifth years of growth. Ten of eleven simulated two-year average mature yields with Rockspring optimization are within 65% confidence intervals of Illinois site measurements and the eleventh is within the 95% confidence interval. Rockspring optimized Agro-BGC achieves accuracies comparable to those of two previously published models: Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) and Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM). Agro-BGC suffers from static vegetation parameters that can change seasonally and as plants age. Using mature plant data for optimization mitigates this deficiency. Our results suggest that a multi-site optimization scheme using mature plant data from more sites would be adequate for generating spatially generalizable vegetation parameters for simulating mature bioenergy crop agro-ecosystems with Agro-BGC.