Ambient halocarbon mixing ratios in 45 Chinese cities

During this study 158 whole air samples were collected in 45 Chinese cities in January and February 2001. The spatial distribution of different classes of halocarbons in the Chinese urban atmosphere, including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Halon-1211, and other chlorinated compounds is presented and discussed. Most of these compounds were enhanced compared to background levels. However, the mean enhancement of CFCs was relatively small, with CFC-12 and CFC-11 increases of 6% (range 1–31%) and 10% (range 2–89%), respectively, with respect to the global background. On the contrary, strongly enhanced levels of CFC replacement compounds and halogenated compounds used as solvents were measured. The average Halon-1211 concentration exceeded the background of 4.3 pptv by 75% and was higher than 10 pptv in several cities. Methyl chloride mixing ratios were also strongly elevated (78% higher than background levels), which is likely related to the widespread use of coal and biofuel in China.     

Can further mitigation of ammonia emissions reduce exceedances of particulate matter air quality standards?

Several studies point out the importance of agricultural emissions to particulate matter (PM) concentrations, and particularly of NH₃ emissions to PM_2.5. Our study used three different chemical transport models (CHIMERE, EMEP and LOTOS-EUROS) to quantify the reductions of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations due to reductions of NH₃ emissions beyond the Gothenburg Protocol (GP), as well as due to the GP alone compared to 2009. Simulations of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations using 2009 meteorology were undertaken for five emission scenarios: 2009 emissions (as the reference simulation), GP emissions in 2020, and further 10%, 20% and 30% NH₃ emission reductions in EU27 beyond the GP. The modelling results for the scenarios with further 10%, 20% and 30% NH₃ agriculture emission reductions in EU27 beyond the GP show that the reduction achieved in PM concentrations is not linear with the emission reductions. In fact, the results from the study show that the impact of ammonia emissions reduction is significantly more efficient when the emission reduction rises. Moreover, based on the evaluation on 2009, the modelling study shows that the expected impact of ammonia emissions on the formation of particulate ammonium was underestimated by all models. This would imply that the role of ammonia on PM concentration and exceedances of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ limit values is likely to be even larger than quantified in this study. This study shows that the implementation of the emission reductions imposed by the revised GP for 2020 will not suffice to achieve compliance with PM limit values everywhere in Europe; hence further European and local measures may be considered. NH₃ emissions from agriculture can be further reduced with the implementation of proven and feasible measures (substitution of fertilizers, improved storage of manure, way fertilizer injections, etc., …), in order to reduce PM concentrations and their impacts on human health across Europe.     

Contribution of different sectors to developed countries’ fulfillment of GHG emission reduction targets under the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol

Greenhouse gas (GHG) data submitted in April 2014 on land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), energy, industrial processes, solvents and other product use, agriculture, and waste for 37 developed countries was analyzed to estimate the relative contributions of different sectors to GHG emission reductions. This GHG data from the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol included 35 parties to Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol, the United States and Canada. Results show that the contribution of each sector was, in order: energy (36.9%), industrial processes (12.4%), agriculture (9.9%), LULUCF (7.7%), waste (3.4%), and solvents and other product use (0.1%). The average proportion of base year emissions reduced in each sector by countries in Annex B was, in order: energy (7.4%), agriculture (2.7%), LULUCF (1.9%), industrial processes (1.2%), waste (0.5%), and solvents and other product use (0.1%). Overall, the energy sector contributed the highest GHG emission reductions, while the agriculture and LULUCF sectors also made contributions. Most countries achieved limited absolute GHG reductions from their chosen LULUCF activities, but the relative contribution of GHG emission reductions from LULUCF was significant but small. This suggests that, unless there are substantial changes to accounting rules, future emission reductions will mainly result from mitigation actions targeting fossil fuel consumption, while the agriculture and LULUCF sectors will continue to play auxiliary roles.     

Analyzing the effectiveness of international environmental policies: The case of the Kyoto Protocol

We study the effectiveness of emission targets under the Kyoto Protocol with respect to reducing CO₂ emissions. Using country-level and US state-level panel data and employing the synthetic control method, we find very little evidence for an emission reduction effect for the major emitters among the Annex B countries with binding emission targets. More generally, we also show that evaluating the effectiveness of international environmental policies at the country level comes with a number of empirical challenges that may invalidate findings based on more traditional panel data approaches.     

高速网络环境下的入侵检测

实现高速网络中实时入侵检测与预警已经成为目前网络安全所面临的问题。笔者首先分析了当前入侵检测系统中模式匹配算法 ,对模式匹配算法作了改进 ;接着对Rete算法进行了分析 ,并针对Rete算法的不足 ,在Rete网算法的基础上引入了FRete网算法 ,在此基础上建立了一种基于FRete匹配算法的推理机 ,对可疑事实进行推理 ;然后在此基础上设计了一种基于高速网络环境的入侵检测系统 ;最后建立了对入侵检测系统进行性能测试的仿真实验环境。通过上述的改进 ,提高了入侵检测系统的运行速度和效率 ,能较好地适应高速网络环境下的入侵检测。     

Possibilities and options for the Clean Development Mechanism and the Green Investment Scheme in Central and Eastern Europe: Macedonian and Romanian perspectives

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is a rapidly changing and developing region which is making the transition to a market based economy. Along with economic reforms, the countries of the region are engaged in substantial environmental reforms, including climate change mitigation activities. Mitigation of, and adaptation to, the consequences of climate change are costly processes. It is therefore of great importance that the national and international mechanisms addressing these problems use methods both environmentally sound and economically efficient. Through two case studies that address the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and the Green Investment Scheme (GIS) in Romania, this paper explores challenges, related tasks and main problems in the establishment of mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol in Central and Eastern Europe.     

Measuring the Welfare Cost of Climate Change Policies: A Comparative Assessment Based on the Computable General Equilibrium Model GEMINI-E3

Measuring the welfare cost of climate change policies is a real challenge, raising difficult issues of micro- and macro-economics: cost-benefit analysis on the one hand, foreign trade and international specialization on the second hand. At the domestic level the possible existence of distortions, in particular in the fiscal system, may either increase or alleviate the welfare cost of a climate change policy, as illustrated by the debate on double dividend. Effects on the prices in international markets and distorted competition between countries committed to abate (Annex B) and uncommitted countries affect both the sharing of the burden, in particular through the change in the terms of trade, and the allocation of activities with the frequently waved threat of delocalization. Based on a companion theoretical analysis, the present paper aims at putting order in the welfare analysis of climate change policy and to present and compare various estimations, issuing from macro- or computable general equilibrium models. Beside the global welfare cost, the paper focuses on the marginal abatement cost and its relation to the carbon price.Most present conceptual and applied analysis is based on the case of a single domestic household-consumer. Taking into account several consumers raises new challenges, concerning equity but even more fundamentally the mere definition of fiscal distortion, which have not yet been really addressed.     

The Kyoto Protocol: provisions and unresolved issues relevant to land-use change and forestry

This paper describes the relevant text of the Kyoto Protocol and its implications for land-use change and forestry (LUCF) activities and addresses some of the technical issues that merit further consideration and clarification before the treaty comes into force. Although the phrasing of the Protocol is sometimes ambiguous and the opportunities limited, the Protocol does provide for some selected forest-related activities to be used to meet national commitments for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. To implement the forest-related portions of the Protocol, most importantly: (1) a clear definition for the word ‘reforestation' is required, (2) contradictory wording in Article 3.3 needs to be clarified to establish how credits are to be measured, (3) further thought should be given to the sentence in Article 3.7 which provides that countries with a net carbon sink in LUCF in 1990 cannot include emissions from land-use change in their 1990 baseline, whereas countries with a net carbon source in LUCF can include those emissions in their 1990 baseline, (4) the rules and baseline issues for joint implementation and the clean development mechanism need to be clarified and (5) inclusion of additional forest management activities needs to be considered.     

China, the United States and technology cooperation on climate control

The U.S. and China are the world's largest and second largest CO₂ emitters, respectively, and to what extent the U.S. and China get involved in combating global climate change is extremely important both for lowering compliance costs of climate mitigation and adaptation and for moving international climate negotiations forward. While it is unavoidable that China will take on commitments at some specific point of time in the future, this paper has argued that the proposal for joint accession by the U.S. and China is not a way forward. For various reasons, such a proposal is in the U.S. interest, but is not in the interest of China. Given the U.S. political reality and institutional settings on the one hand and China's over-riding concern about economic growth and poverty reduction on the other, the two countries are unlikely to take on emissions caps under an international regime, at least for the time being. Therefore, we need to explore the area where cooperation between the two countries to address climate change seems best. The research, development and deployment of clean technology is the area that is in the best interests of the two countries. The U.S. has adopted a technology-oriented approach to climate issues, and has launched the four multilateral initiatives on technology cooperation and the Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate (APP). China has participated in all these U.S.-led initiatives, and is a partner to the APP. Strengthened technology cooperation between the two countries through these initiatives and the APP has led some tangible benefits. However, it should be pointed out that while technology is a critical ingredient in a climate policy package, efforts such as the APP can only be part of the solution. They alone cannot ensure that best available technologies are always deployed in the marketplace, and that new technologies will roll out at the pace and on the scale that we need. In order to have such technology-oriented approach to play a full role, we do need a coordinated policy framework agreed via the Kyoto Protocol or a follow-up regime or the parent United Nations Framework Convention.     

Issues and challenges for forest-based carbon-offset projects: A case study of the Noel Kempff climate action project in Bolivia

The Noel Kempff Climate Action Project in Bolivia, nowin its third year, is breaking ground to establishcredible and verifiable methods to quantify greenhousegas (GHG) benefits of land-use change and forestry (LUCF)projects. Developed under the United Nations FrameworkConvention Climate Change (FCCC) Activities ImplementedJointly pilot phase, the project conserves naturalforests that would otherwise have been subjected tocontinued logging and future agricultural conversion.Carbon (C) monitoring began with a C inventory of theproject area in 1997. The total amount of C in theproject area was 118 Tg (Tg = 10¹²g) ± 4%(95% confidence interval). Periodic monitoring ofrelevant C pools (occurring in 1999 and every 5 yrthereafter) occurs over the 30-year life of theproject to establish the difference between thewith-project and projected without-project scenarios. Permanent sample plots were established both insidethe project area to monitor changes in C pools overtime and in a proxy logging concession near theproject area to determine changes in C pools inforests that have been impacted by logging. Ground-based monitoring is complemented by datacollection on forest industry trends and land-usechange patterns. Remote sensing was used to developa vegetation stratification map of the area, and workis ongoing to investigate the potential application ofdual-camera aerial videography to improve theefficiency of monitoring over time.