基于元胞自动机的城市区域火蔓延概率模型探讨

考虑建筑结构物震后可能发生的次生火灾的不确定性,给出解决问题的基本思路,构建了基于元胞自动机的城市地震次生火灾蔓延概率模型,指出元胞着火的概率与建筑物的特性和灾害条件有关,包括建筑材料、外墙是否有开口、与着火元胞的距离、地震对建筑的破坏程度以及气象条件等因素。模型通过设置没有开口的外墙以及道路和空地来区分单体建筑和建筑之间的火蔓延。该模型量化了影响火蔓延概率的因素,能快速实现城市区域火蔓延过程的动态模拟,特别适宜用于城市宏观角度上的火蔓延模拟。模拟结果再现了火灾过程,这不仅提高了人们对城市区域火蔓延危害的认识,而且为城市规划设计和消防扑救措施提供了有益的理论依据。     

考虑从众阈值和主体特征的人群疏散元胞自动机模型

为研究从众行为对人群疏散效率的影响,建立考虑从众阈值和主体特征的人群疏散元胞自动机模型,通过引入从众阈值反映人群中不同个体的从众选择程度,耦合每个主体不同特征属性、不同人员认知能力导致的疏散从众选择差异,利用元胞自动机模拟人群运动状态及动态演化过程,探究从众行为对人群疏散过程的作用规律.结果表明:人群疏散中选择从众行为...     

Androgen-dependent maternal effects on offspring fitness in zebra finches

There is accumulating evidence that maternal hormones may play a role in offspring sex adjustment, but little is known about the costs of such hormone-mediated mechanisms. Recent studies have reported sex-specific effects of hormones on offspring viability. Specifically, we previously found that elevating the plasma androgen level in mothers results in a male-biased offspring primary sex ratio, but it affects the viability of sons negatively and daughters positively in zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata; Rutkowska and Cichoń, Anim Behav, 71:1283–1288, 2006). In this study, we studied further fitness consequences of exposure to elevated yolk androgen levels in zebra finches. We measured growth rate and cellular immune response of nestlings that hatched from eggs laid by females injected with testosterone during egg laying and nestlings of unaffected control females. We found that sons of testosterone-treated females grew slower in comparison to sons of control females. The significant interaction between experimental group and offspring sex indicates that sons of testosterone-treated mothers suffered impaired immune responsiveness while daughters seemed to benefit from elevated androgen level in terms of enhanced immune responsiveness. We found no effects of androgens on offspring performance at adulthood—neither fecundity of females nor attractiveness of males was affected. We conclude that the benefits of biasing sex ratio towards males by increasing androgen level in the yolk may be limited due to negative effects on male offspring performance early in life.     

Examining the colonization process of exotic species varying in competitive abilities using a cellular automaton model

Current threats of invasive species have significant implications for ecological systems. Given their potential impacts, invasive species have been the subject of extensive empirical and theoretical studies. However, these studies have tended to focus on species that produce highly visible ecological and economic impacts. In our study, we take a step back from focusing on these high-impact invasive species, and examine the general colonization (invasion) process of exotic species that have various “competitive abilities” against the native species. Using a two-species cellular automaton model, we demonstrate that: (1) a threshold level of competitive ability is required for the exotic species to successfully establish in a new landscape and (2) an exotic species with superior competitive ability does not necessarily become dominant in a landscape (alternatively, a species that has inferior competitive ability may successfully colonize a new system). Our findings have significant implications for the study of species invasions and also provide clues to how species assemble in ecological communities.     

In-vehicle workload assessment: effects of traffic situations and cellular telephone use

PROBLEM: Assessment of drivers' on-road workload is an important traffic safety consideration. This study was conducted to examine the effects of cellular phone communication on driving performance, with particular emphasis on variations in task demand in different traffic situations. METHOD: Twelve participants were asked to drive on urban roads and motorways with or without concomitant mathematical-addition tests relayed via cellular phone. Measurements included task and driving performance, physiological responses, and compensatory behavior. RESULTS: Analysis of task performance revealed that mean response time was markedly increased (11.9%) for driving on urban roads compared to motorways. The mean driving speed only decreased 5.8% in the presence of phone tasks in comparison to normal driving without distractions. In addition, overall physiological workload increased through compensatory behavior in response to the phone tasks. CONCLUSIONS: Driving with phone use in different traffic environments induced measurable variations in driver workload. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: When faced with heavy traffic, a greater safety margin is typically adopted, with more lowered driving speed and restricted phone use, and it can be assumed that there is a general trade-off between tasks to preserve driving safety.     

Defining agents' behaviors to simulate complex residential development using multicriteria evaluation

Cellular automata (CA) have been increasingly used to simulate complex geographical phenomena. These models may have limitations on reflecting individuals' behaviors which should be considered in urban simulation. Agent-based modeling can solve some of the problems in addressing individuals' influences in urban systems. However, there is a general lack of methodology on how to define agents' properties. This paper uses multicriteria evaluation techniques to determine some of the parameters for the agent-based model. Empirical data from GIS are used to define agent's properties. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out to assess the influences of parameters on simulation outcomes. This model has been applied to the simulation of the residential development in a fast growing city, Guangzhou, in south China.     

城市增长边界分析方法研究——以长江三角洲常州市为例

诸多国家已采取城市增长边界(Urban growth boundary, UGB)对策以抑制城市蔓延,我国目前城市与土地利用规划也明确要求划定UGB,但其分析方法研究还较薄弱。综合系统动力学模型、元胞自动机及城市承载力分析研究常州市区UGB,结果表明:预测到2020年常州市区城市建设用地面积为30 847 hm²,北部和南部组团外延增长、主城区及南北组团内部填充同步发展,UGB由沿江-德胜河-沪宁高速-新孟河-德胜河-武宜运河-沿江高速-沪宁高速-市域界限等围合而成;模型预测的UGB与GH-UGB(实际规划UGB)北部和东部空间拟合良好,西部和南部拟合较差,表明模型预测对空间整体和要素联系考虑不足,而用地规模偏差则表明模型预测更为客观;UGB分析方法在政策、空间规划理念和整体格局上有待完善。     

不同房间结构下人员疏散的CA模拟研究

采用元胞自动机模型分别对不同房间结构中的人员疏散进行了模拟,重点研究了人员密度和出口条件对疏散时间的影响.结果表明,疏散时间随着人员密度线形增加;根据建筑结构的不同,采用多出口对疏散时间有不同程度的减少.该模拟结果对于出口的设计和人员的安全疏散具有一定的指导意义.     

气相爆轰波通过声学吸收壁时强度衰减过程的实验研究

该文旨在研究稳定的气体爆轰波通过声学吸收壁强度衰减的过程。研究表明，当实验气体的初始压力小于某一临界值Pε时，爆轰波发生显著的衰减现象，胞格逐渐消失，爆速下降到稳定爆速的约0．5倍。该文利用不同初压下的烟迹图详细地分析了横波衰减并因此导致稳定爆轰波强度衰减的机理，给出了爆轰波与声学吸收壁作用的一个简化的理论模型，并且得到了衰减长度随初压变化的实验曲线。     

考虑主动避让行为的养老场所人员疏散研究

为明确主动避让行为对养老场所人员疏散的影响,建立考虑主动避让弱势群体行为的元胞自动机模型,模型分别考虑避让弱势群体前方行走区域、斜前方行走区域、前方和斜前方行走区域对人员疏散的影响;分析不同避让方式下弱势群体比例、行人密度、弱势群体位置分布对整体疏散结果的影响.结果 表明:主动避让弱势群体行为能够降低疏散时间,增加疏散...