Thoughts concerning the economic valuation of landscapes

The incorporation of economic thinking into the valuation of landscapes is still relatively new. It is an approach that yields valuable new insights and can help with prioritizing the use of scarce resources to improve and/or preserve landscapes. This paper explores and discusses the uses and limitations of economic valuation of landscapes from market failure, policy process, and theoretical and philosophical perspectives.     

装备故障模式影响实际分析

在明确FMEA分析方法意义的基础上,本文对某装备进行故障模式及影响分析,并得出相应结论,以有助于该装备的研制与使用。     

考虑人因差错影响的结构可靠度计算方法

通过对单个或任意多个人因差错影响下构件截面失效概率计算方法的分析讨论,推导出在理想已知条件下的数学解析求解公式;在考虑人因差错对结构参数影响程度的空间离散化后,得出了相应的简化计算方法;并以一个单筋梁的正截面为例进行了失效概率计算和人因差错影响程度分析.在目前人因差错的发生及其影响规律的研究不完善、缺乏必要的数学模型的现实条件下,该方法对人因差错影响下构件截面失效概率的分析计算有一定的实用价值.     

高墩大跨连续刚构桥施工期安全评价

针对高墩大跨连续刚构桥施工期结构概率失效的特性,提出了基于失效概率的安全评价方法.以徐水沟特大桥为工程背景,通过风险评定识别出施工最不利阶段--最大双悬臂时的主要风险因素即:节段特性模量的不确定性、梁体自重的不确定性以及预应力损失的不确定性.采用大型通用有限元程序ANSYS及蒙特卡洛法,计算徐水沟特大桥在最大悬臂时的失效概率,并确定施工期的目标可靠度.依据高墩大跨连续刚构桥施工期结构概率失效的评价结果,提出相应的风险控制措施.     

考虑人为因素的可靠性评估

统计数据表明,系统的可靠运行不可忽略人为误操作造成的故障,该故障发生率有时甚至超过设备本身导致的系统故障发生率。将人为因素与设备自身因素造成的系统故障进行对比,分析人为因素造成系统故障后的特点,可得出人为因素的可靠性参数。根据解析法和模拟法的相关理论计算考虑人为因素的可靠性指标,可以看出考虑人为因素的计算结果更加符合实际运行特点,便于相关人员采取对策,保障系统的安全运行。     

基于多态模糊BN的石化动设备故障概率定量风险评估

石化行业的压缩机、泵等动设备故障模式多样,故障概率的不确定性较大,常用的风险评估方法无法实现对石化行业动设备失效概率的定量评估,限制了设备安全管理的准确性和有效性.基于贝叶斯网络(BN)可定量计算复杂系统失效概率的特点,利用故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)方法获取动设备风险事件的因果关系,将其映射为BN,并利用BN中节点...     

The boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion

The boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE) has existed for a long time and for most of this time it has been cloaked in mystery. Several theories have been put forward to explain this very energetic event but none have been proven. This paper describes a series of tests that have recently been conducted to study this phenomenon.

The study involved ASME code automotive propane tanks with nominal capacities of 400 litres. The tanks were exposed to a combination of pool and/or torch fires. These fire conditions led to thermal ruptures, and in some cases these ruptures resulted in BLEVEs. The variables in the tests were the pressure-relief valve setting, the tank wall thickness, and the fire condition.

In total, 30 tests have been conducted, of which 22 resulted in thermal ruptures. Of those tanks that ruptured, 11 resulted in what we call BLEVEs. In this paper, we have defined a BLEVE as the explosive release of expanding vapour and boiling liquid following a catastrophic tank failure. Non-BLEVEs involved tanks that ruptured but which only resulted in a prolonged jet release.

The objective of this study was to investigate why certain tank ruptures lead to a BLEVE rather than a more benign jet-type release. Data are presented to show how wall temperature, wall thickness, liquid temperature and fill level contribute to the BLEVE process.     

排污收费政策失灵分析

在市场经济体制下,经常会出现政策失灵。本文首先介绍了政策失灵的基本理论,然后对我国的排污收费政策失灵进行了深入分析,最后提出了完善我国排污收费政策的对策。     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL TO EVALUATE HYDROLOGIC RISK IN WATER RESOURCE SYSTEM DESIGN1

In this paper, a procedure for analyzing a water resource system with special emphasis on evaluation of acceptable economic risk due to occasional failures to deliver water is proposed. The basic methodology includes the development of a simple mathematical model which describes the physical hydrologic and economic characteristics of a single reservoir irrigation and city water supply system and an evaluation of economic benefits of the system with full and partial deliveries of water. The system is simulated for various combinations of decision variables (system magnitudes) and an optimum design is obtained by response surface technology. Emphasis is placed on the basic model and methodology although, in order to introduce some realism, the procedure is applied to data based on the existing reservoir system on the South Concho River in West Central Texas.     

Charity hazard—A real hazard to natural disaster insurance?

After the flooding in 2002 European governments provided billions of Euros of financial assistance to their citizens. Although there is no doubt that solidarity and some sort of assistance are reasonable, the question arises why these damages were not sufficiently insured. One explanation why individuals reject to obtain insurance cover against natural hazards is that they anticipate governmental and private aid. This problem became to be known as “charity hazard”. The present paper gives an economic analysis of the institutional arrangements on the market for natural disaster insurances focusing on imperfections caused by governmental financial relief. It provides a theoretical explanation why charity hazard is a problem on the market for natural disaster insurances, in the way that it acts as an obstacle for the proper diffusion and therefore the establishment of natural hazard insurances. This paper provides a review of the scientific discussion on charity hazard, provides a theoretical analysis and points out the existing empirical problems regarding this issue.