天然气管道失效个人生命风险评价技术研究

为研究天然气长输管道失效个人生命风险,提出一种以人员伤亡概率为指标的天然气管道失效后果风险评价方法。基于天然气管道的失效概率和失效致死长度参数,建立天然气长输管道生命风险评价模型。用该模型,对国内某城市住宅小区内带腐蚀缺陷的天然气管线进行定量风险分析。借鉴英国天然气输送公司数据,确定天然气管线个人生命风险值。案例证明,用所建立的天然气管道失效个人生命风险评价模型能够有效地分析带缺陷天然气管道失效后果,实现天然气管道的个人安全生命风险全定量评价。     

基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型研究

重点阐述了基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型的建立过程,应用贝叶斯网络建立了开式压力机安全性评估模型,对冲手事故模型中的共因失效节点进行了说明,并最终计算得出开式压力机冲手事故的发生概率.计算结果分析表明:对于系统基本事件之间有共因和相关关系的系统,BN计算结果使得事故后果概率明显增大,设计者和管理者不能忽略共因和相关关系对系统风险的影响.     

某炼油厂冷却循环水系统故障与危害性分析

根据采集的某炼油厂一年的冷却循环水系统的故障数据,采用故障模式影响及危害性分析方法对该系统的可靠性进行了分析.由该系统结构特点,划分了水冷塔、换热器、水冷塔风机、水泵、水管、阀门等7个子系统及19种故障模式,统计了各子系统的故障率,分析了系统的故障模式及其故障原因,计算了各子系统的危害度.结果表明水泵及水冷塔风机的危害度最高,换热器的危害度排第三,但其故障率排第四,说明在做故障分析时不能只统计故障率而不进行危害度分析.最后提出了相应的改进措施,经过一年的实际运行,效果明显.     

Prevention of an atmospheric storage tank bund failure

Secondary containment (bunds, drip trays, interceptors/sumps) is an integral part of many chemical, petrochemical, as well as agricultural, food and pharmaceutical facilities. Bunds are the built-in cases for accidental liquid substance spillage where there is a hazard that a substance could leak into the surroundings and the potential of health or environmental damage. The authors focus on the cases installed in large-volume atmospheric tanks storing hazardous chemicals in liquid form, where the bund failure occurred. In the first part of the study, a database of these accidents was created, numbering a total of 15 items. Attention was paid to the course of the accident, its causes and consequences. Several basic representative scenarios of bund failure have also been developed. The second part of the study is devoted mainly to the measures against the bund failure, such as risk assessment, technical and organizational measures. The aim of this study is to provide readers (including experts in the field of safety engineering, maintenance experts and building designers) with the information that can subsequently be used in the risk assessment of bund failure, possibly also for planning the construction of new bunds, or revitalization and maintenance of the existing ones.     

综合拉底、扩漏和出矿全过程的底部结构安全性颗粒流模拟技术研究

为探明自然崩落法从拉底崩落至出矿全过程中底部结构节理连续扩展过程与破坏过程规律，采用PFC2D软件，结合RocLab软件反演节理岩体参数，建立229 m×129 m的岩体扩大模型，对拉底崩落至出矿过程进行连续综合计算。研究结果表明:模拟结果及破坏现象与现场监测结果相近，建模与细观参数反演方法适用于该类岩体工程研究；裂纹扩展贯通导致岩体失稳破坏，破坏过程与裂纹扩展具有相对应的阶段特征，裂纹扩展分为崩落前稳定扩展期，崩落与聚矿槽开挖过程加速扩展期和后续持续扩展期；结构破坏分为蕴育过程，扰动失稳过程和宏观破坏过程；较大范围的宏观破坏主要在出矿阶段。该模拟方法与结果可为底部结构维护以及节理岩体长期稳定性研究提供参考。     

不同组合比例煤岩的电荷感应与微震规律试验研究

针对煤岩在屈服破坏过程中有微震和电荷信号产生这一特征,利用自行设计的微震和电荷感应信号监测试验系统,分析不同组合比例煤岩在变形破裂过程中微震和电荷信号的变化规律。研究结果表明:微震和电荷信号是低频信号,信号频谱集中分布在0~80 Hz,应力突变与微震信号和电荷信号的产生及变化有较好的一致性;随着“煤-岩”高度比的增加,试样的单轴抗压强度减小,试样屈服破裂时微震和电荷信号幅值增大,同步性增强,试件破坏的突发性增强;试件破坏过程中电荷比微震信号数更多,初次明显的电荷信号也早于初次明显的微震信号。     

Crop Failure in Dalocha, Ethiopia: A Participatory Emergency Response

This case study of an NGO's response to a food crisis due to crop failure focuses on the extent of active community participation at each stage of the project. With the current debate on the relationship between relief and development, and in particular the focus on encouraging more active community participation in relief responses, this study has relevance both in the Ethiopian context and beyond.
In this example the participation process was greatly facilitated by the prior relationship between the international NGO and the communities, and also by the high level of staff input into the project. Where resources or conditions are less favourable, as might be the case in similar responses by local NGOs or government agencies, the paper suggests that the participatory approach can be adapted or partially implemented and still result in a more effective and locally relevant operation.     

Tired of innovations? Learned helplessness and fatigue in the context of continuous streams of innovation implementation

The business environment faced by contemporary organizations is highly uncertain and constantly changing. Thus, organizations have adopted and implemented a continuous stream of innovations to achieve sustainable growth and survival. Considering the demand for additional resources to implement innovations, the present study explores organizational conditions that may lead to innovation‐targeted burnout and fatigue among employees, which impede their active participation in a subsequent innovation. To this end, we propose a theoretical framework that elucidates the effects of previous innovations on the subsequent implementation behavior of employees. We identify two dimensions of the cognitive appraisal of previous innovations (i.e., intensity and failure) that shape employees' beliefs regarding innovations, such as innovation‐targeted helplessness, which ultimately results in innovation fatigue. Data collected from 84 managers and 397 employees of Chinese and Korean organizations prove the significant role of employee perceptions of previous innovations in shaping the innovation‐targeted helplessness and fatigue of employees, which ultimately affect employee behavior toward a subsequent innovation. The present conceptual and empirical analyses suggest that given continuous streams of innovation implementation, managers should carefully consider employee's perceptions of previous innovations (i.e., intensity and failure) for successful implementation of a subsequent innovation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于GM(1,1)的残差修正模型的电梯故障率预测

为研究某城市某品牌电梯故障率发展趋势,建立了该城市该品牌电梯故障率的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,并对所建模型进行了数据检验,检验结果表明该预测模型的预测精度波动较大。为了提高GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的预测精度,利用对模型进行数据检验时得到的残差序列,建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的残差修正模型,利用该残差修正模型对原预测模型进行修正。利用经残差修正模型修正后的故障率预测模型对该城市A品牌电梯的故障率进行预测,结果表明:1)残差修正模型对原模型修正后的相对误差与修正前相比有升也有降,但精度有所提高且趋于稳定,表明残差修正模型有利于提高预测精度;2)利用所建立的故障率预测模型求得的预测故障率与实际故障率相比,相对误差不超过8.010%,表明该故障率预测模型的预测精度较高;3)修正模型预测值表明,在现有状态下该城市A品牌电梯的故障率呈上升趋势,应加强该品牌电梯的检维修与管理。     

基于POF的温度应力加速试验失效机理一致性研究

目的通过失效物理手段得到温度加速寿命试验的失效机理突变点,节省试验样本,并为加速寿命试验的有效性提供保障。方法利用电子产品典型失效物理模型,在求解MOSFET器件激活能的基础上确定失效机理突变点,并开展失效物理分析,从微观分析的角度验证失效机理一致性判定方法的理论正确性和工程适用性。结果 MOSFET器件在温度低于240℃时,失效机理没有发生改变;温度高于240℃时,失效机理发生了改变,与前述失效机理不一致。结论基于失效物理的方法可以确定器件机理发生变化的温度应力点,所需样本量小。