大同市土地退化现状与动态变化研究

通过对大同市水土流失现状与动态变化、土地盐渍化和耕地数量与质量情况动态变化、土地沙漠化现状与动态变化的现状调查来分析大同市土地退化的主要成因以及采取的环境保护对策与建议.     

奈曼旗沙漠化土地动态变化分析

本文利用两期TM卫片对奈曼旗五个苏木的沙漠化土地动态进行了分析。10年间沙漠伦土地总面积减少了457.82km^2，但同期耕地面积净增加了394.08km^2；同时，流动沙地面积增加了139.62km^2，图斑数降低到了50％，流动沙地明显扩展，斑块间发生合并，集中连片的趋势严峻。不同苏木沙漠化土地变化表明，土地利用方式对其有明显影响。     

Climate Change and Energy Technologies

The long time scale of the climate change problem and the inherent nature of the carbon cycle bring important implications for present technology development efforts. Even if major technology improvements are achieved for non-carbon-emitting technologies such as energy-intensity improvements, wind, solar, biomass, and nuclear over the course of the 21^st century, most examinations of potential future greenhouse emissions conclude that additional technology development will be required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations. The evelopment of an expanded suite of technologies including carbon capture and disposal, hydrogen systems and biotechnology hold the potential to dramatically reduce the cost of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. This paper examines these technologies in the context of a global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, land-use, economics, and carbon cycle processes.     

Scale,context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change

This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect, background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation processes in climate change studies.     

近50年丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化

冰川是丝绸之路经济带中国境内重要的水资源,对该区农业建设和经济发展至关重要。基于修订后的中国第一次冰川编目数据和最新发布的第二次冰川编目数据,对丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化进行分析。结果表明：（1）丝绸之路经济带中国境内现有冰川22523条,面积25516.80 km²,冰储量约2592.85 km³,分别占我国冰川相应总量的46.37%、49.22%和57.39%,其中新疆维吾尔自治区冰川储量最为丰富,共计2366.25 km³。（2）丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川以面积<0.5 km²的冰川数量最多,共计15519条,占冰川总数量的68.90%;面积则以介于1~5 km²冰川为主,共计6833.71 km²,占冰川总面积的26.78%;各山系的冰川退缩海拔高度不同,面积减少速度在各个高度带均有差异。（3）近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川面积共减少4527.43 km²,变化百分比为-20.88%,有3114条冰川消失,冰川冰储量损失约419.35 km³。（4）丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化整体呈现自西向东加快趋势,减少速率整体上有自西南向东北加快趋势;冰川朝北消失数量大于朝南消失数量,东北方向面积减少最多,东南方向面积减少最快。（5）近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内有暖湿化趋势,冬季气温升高速率大于夏季且降水增加幅度小于夏季的气候组合模式,不利于冰川的积累从而导致冰川退缩;冰川发育规模对冰川退缩也有一定影响,但各山系冰川变化驱动力具有空间差异。     

气候变化与实施清洁发展机制的展望

本文第一部分介绍了《气候变化框架公约》的达成与主要内容，以及在柏林、日内瓦、京都与布宜诺斯艾利斯先后召开的４ 次缔约方会议的结果； 第二部分介绍了清洁发展机制（ＣＤＭ） 同《京都议定书》的其他灵活机制的异同，以及ＣＤＭ 的特点、方法学与技术问题； 第三部分分析了ＣＤＭ 的前景、影响其成功实施的因素、它可能提供的潜在机遇以及实施中的需求与供给；最后就ＣＤＭ 的实施作了展望。     

农业资源利用模式间的转换及案例分析

目前我国农业仍然属于资源高耗低效型农业，而农业自然资源是非常有限的，为此必须实现农业资源的高效利用。本文从中观区域尺度上研究了农业资源利用模式及不同利用模式间的转换，通过案例分析认为，农业资源利用模式处于不断演替过程中，其演替具有明显的层次性；在演替过程中，物化资源投入水平不断增加，农业资源利用效率不断提高；与农业资源利用模式相适应的农业资源利用技术体系也具有多样性和层次性。     

Climatic change and urbanization effect in China

Climatic change and urbanization effect in China during the last 39 years were investigated. It is found that a warming of about 0.23℃ for the annual temperature has been noticed from 1951 to 1989. The warmings of about 0.78 ℃ in winter and 0.34 3℃ in spring have been shown. It is also presented that a cooling of about -0.27℃ in summer has been indicated. The bigger cities are warmer than smaller cities in China. The dried trends in the annual precipitation during the last 39 years were presented. The precipitation decreased obviously in summer all over China. The bigger cities were drier than smaller cities.     

Ecological networks and greenways in Europe: reasoning and concepts

The paper gives an overview of approaches towards ecological networks throughout Europe.It does not intend to present a complete picture,but to highlight comon developments within countries and regions and show common principles and differences between countries and regions that have to be taken into account when developing a joint European intiative,Countries or regions that have not been included can be active in the same way ,but information was not accessible to be authors for different reasons.This overview shows the comparable trends in decline of landscapes and the diversity in approaches to biodiversity conservation and nature conservation planning.Understanding the differences and common issues are of utmost imprtance to generalise common principles and to understand the way neighbours and other European partners approach problems.